Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

It's not as transmissible as a lot of people seem to think - there have been plenty of examples of one adult in a household catching it but not others, for example. It's caught primarily in enclosed environments where people are exposed for several minutes or more; hence the spread in hospitals and care homes. A small number of people do most of the spreading.

Anyway, in normal healthy young people we are likely at herd immunity in places like London and a second wave is unlikely.

I don't understand opinions like this. So: fuck older people, fuck people with underlying conditions, fuck anyone who isn't "normal" or healthy or young?

In related news about numbers: I'm in week 10. I'm staying awake tonight because I am having mild breathing problems, again. My teenage DS will check on me about every 15 minutes as he stays up gaming. I have been in hospital twice, both times taken into the covid-only section, separate from the rest of the hospital - and I haven't had any kind of test, either the initial covid swab or the antibody test. I presume I didn't get the swab because I'd already had it too long to show up in my nose, and I presume I didn't get the antibody test because they didn't have it yet. I have been ill and yet I do not know if I, and cases like me, are even showing up in the stats.

(I've actually lost track of which week I'm in. Anyway, I first showed symptoms in late March, and it's still dominating my life. I'm a "mild" case. I don't even know if I'm an official case. I am so tired, and so exhausted from having to think about breathing.)

@Legoandloldolls

My understanding is that some infected people are highly infectious, and others far less so. Studies have shown that some people passed it to dozens of others.... and it seems many pass it to no one. Since late March, people’s behaviour has changed dramatically... Even those who have ignored social distancing won’t have had nearly the opportunity to pass it on. Most people continue only to have close contact with their immediate families, and almost no one will be socialising when with a fever and a cough (Ie when people are most infectious)... back in early March, it was commonplace.

Blimey I have one busy day at work and realise I suddenly have 250 posts to read! Going to settle in now because I still don't understand!

@psychomath

Combination of a few reasons. Things like going to the beach are not especially likely to spread infection even if a lot of people are doing it, provided you aren't all crammed together with your face up in someone's armpit. And relative to the whole country it's only a very small number of people doing those things anyway - it just looks like a lot because it's all over the media. And the proportion of infected people is also very low.

A couple of weeks ago they estimated that 0.2% of people were currently infected. At one of the huge Black Lives Matter protests there were said to be 15,000 people attending (can't remember if that was London or Manchester). If 0.2% of the people there were infected that's just 30 people on the whole march. Even if each of those 30 people ignored all the social distancing advice and managed to infect three other people, that's still only 90 new infections caused by the massive non-socially distanced event - that wouldn't even be noticeable among the normal daily fluctuations. People ignoring social distancing might be slowing down the drop in cases, but they're not (currently) having a big enough effect to reverse the trend and make the numbers go up again.

The reason we can't drop everything and go back to normal is because there's a big difference between a one-off event and sustained social contact. If 90 people get infected on a protest march and then go back home and continue to minimise their contact with others, that's not too bad and the local outbreak will fizzle out. If those 90 people go to another mass event in the next week, or hug their friends or take crowded public transport, and they each infect three more people, that's 270 new infections. Then if those 270 people do the same, it goes up to 810 and then 2430 new cases, at which point you're looking at a noticeable increase again.

So I think the most sensible and sustainable thing to do at the moment is still to try and reduce the overall number of people you come into contact with compared to non-pandemic times, e.g. by avoiding public transport if you can and not going to the shops as often, to keep the transmission rates down across society as a whole. But equally don't panic if you need to see a friend or someone stands too close to you, because the individual risk from each interaction is still very small.

That was a massive explanation but hopefully it makes sense!

Ooh yes i does, thanks!

new positive tests - from the data sets those go with the official briefing.
4/6/2020 1,805
5/6/2020 1,650
6/6/2020 1,557
7/6/2020 1,326
8/6/2020 1,205
9/6/2020 1,387
10/6/2020 1,003
11/6/2020 1,266
12/6/2020 1,541

The low figure for tests on 8/6 was the normal weekend drop. The high figure on 12/6 may be a blip but it certainly is not true to say the daily briefing charts show no sign of any change.

There's an article in the Lancet that addresses the hypothesis that Lockdown was a coincidence & herd immunity was achieved instead. Spoiler: they conclude herd immunity isn't applicable.

Why do people assume that people broke the rules on VE Day?
Most people had social distancing parties so why would there be any risk .
It's almost like your a bit put out that it didn't go up .
All those who said you see the death rate will go up and it didn't so now disappointed they were wrong.
Also I ready something yesterday that they think 80% may have no symptoms if that's true then so many may have had it pre lockdown.

Also I ready something yesterday that they think 80% may have no symptoms if that's true then so many may have had it pre lockdown.

Yes, loads of people have been infected.... 7% of us have antibodies, so with population of 67 million, that’s 4 to 5 million!....

"Why do people assume that people broke the rules on VE Day?
Most people had social distancing parties so why would there be any risk ."

Parties of any type were not allowed at the time. Gatherings not allowed.

Cases are rising slowly but because hospitals are better prepared they can treat quicker and people aren't dying as much.

What the hell. Nobody who needed to be hospitalised was left to die - care homes excepted, but thats not for this thread.

Why do people assume that people broke the rules on VE Day?

Completely agree.

All I saw were families sitting outside their families with some bunting across their front door. I certainly didn’t see any parties or gatherings and I doubt very much that anyone actually did this.

Not exactly an activity that’s going to cause a spike..

I think most people’s behaviour changes drastically once they’re out and about again. Nothing like before. I think in countries where everyone’s wearing masks it seems it can be eradicated. Sars-type has tended to come back at coldest time of year (around Feb) in asian countries over the last decade.

@care I don’t think that is right. In March and April when the message was stay-at-home whatever you do and look at nhs online, many many covid sick dealt with it at home and some did die.

From The Times today:

States such as California, Florida and Texas that are among those to have lifted lockdown measures the most are starting to see infection rates climb.

I think if we can keep the figures moving down whilst the weather is good it will help.

The biggest test is as soon as the weather turns in Autumn/Winter.

If we can get infection rates down to as low as possible (would hope for zero) before heading into the bad weather I think we could crack it by the end of next summer.

My worry is with the protests all the staying in and SI and SD will have been for nothing.
and infection rates will start to rise again before we get into September/October time and the death rate will be similar to what we had going into the Summer except it will be worse as we will be going into 6 months of bad weather and staying in doors.

Then I doubt we will be clear of this until 2022 at the very least.
And it won’t be any governments fault.

Would like to know how somewhere like NZ is going to cope if there isn’t any “herd immunity”

Are they going to keep their borders closed for years till every country in the world is free of Covid.

If the numbers rise again before Summer is over then I think we will have lost the opportunity of getting on top of this and I don’t think we can trash the economy again. People (outside of those who are still working and drawing a full or percentage of their wages) and the government and companies who have had to shut and/or are paying out for furloughed workers wont be able to sustain this again.

I think then we will be looking at throwing the towel in and going for herd immunity which will bring with it deaths in the 6 figures.

Interested to know why if we can’t have gatherings of more than 6 people then why are these protest exempt.

Friends (White) were threatened with a fine whilst sat on a bench and their friends were sat on an opposite bench 3/4 metres away chatting

It gave them the rage that even though they were SD and keeping to the rules the police were coming down on them then they get home to see the protests, no SD, no masks and the police stood by doing nothing.

I don’t think that is right. In March and April when the message was stay-at-home whatever you do and look at nhs online, many many covid sick dealt with it at home and some did die.

Maybe they did. But it wasn't a result of our hospitals being unprepared.

I just read that China is imposing lockdown again, in Beijing I think.

That’s hard to hear re China. I can only imagine how tough it is second time round.

@Lynda07

I just read that China is imposing lockdown again, in Beijing I think.

A small, localised lockdown due to 45 cases transmitted at a market. Nowhere near the whole of Beijing. The sort of small lockdown that nearly every country has said it will implement in order to stamp out further outbreaks.

People attending a large on a singular occasion is unlikely to have much effect on the rate of transmission, as long as they were following the rules for a few weeks before attending and then return to following them for the next few weeks, as the lack of contact with others before the gathering will have reduced the incidence of the virus at it and continuing to avoid contact after a gathering will avoid those who caught the virus at the gathering from passing it on. The most worrying thing about the current protests, that is in contrast with the vast majority of those who attended VE day events or have been to a crowded beach, is that the same people are attending multiple different crowded events in quick succession and it is this chain of events that will cause an increase in infection rates.

The "R" rate is above 1 in the South West according to news this morning.
It's high up here in the NW too, so not sure where you are getting your info.
If you mean London, that's just a part of the UK, and has been low for a while.
I think cases are planned to rise during the school holidays, it wasn't looking like it would be quick enough for Boris and Chums, so they threw in a few protests and riots to bring it on a bit quicker
HTH

I wonder if it is possible to put out figures to show where the greater infection rates are coming from.

Not just South East/North West or by county but by more specific areas like towns or areas of towns and cities so people know that it is their area that needs to bring the figures down and other areas whilst still keeping up SD can begin an ease down into coming back to normal.
Obviously if their specific area starts to show an increase then they know to double down on SI and SD

Saying there are higher numbers in one county or area as opposed to another county or area doesn’t mean much as people either go to extremes and don’t go out when in their area the threat level is low or people are going out and mixing with people when the threat level is actually quite high.

@oliversmumsarmy. I imagine it would usually be the acreage of the local hospital.