Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

Cases are rising slowly but because hospitals are better prepared they can treat quicker and people aren't dying as much

Hospitals being better prepared has nothing to do with it. Its a virus, hospitals can't give you anything to stop it in its track, all hospitals can do is treat the symptoms the virus causes so temperature, breathing difficulties, blod clots etc and try to make you more comfortable whilst they wait to see if your body is capable of fighting off the virus. The fact cases are rising slower is down to the fact there aren't as many people infected now because we have been distancing making it harder for the virus to jump to other people.

But aren’t there meant to have been 60,000 additional deaths in the last few months

Yes, which is tragic. But 165,000 people die of cancer every year- thats more than double covid deaths and its EVERY year. Why arent we considering and thinking about those people who died?

Also I think some people have absolutely revelled in this shit show. Loved the drama of it and the prediction of a ‘new normal’

How would you like us to react? what would meet your approval?

You cannot blame people for being pleased the deaths are going down. This has been a shitty, miserable time for everyone. Its good things are getting better, albeit slowly.

I'm bloody delighted the numbers are going down. I was largely bedbound for huge chunks of two months, had days when my DS (I'm a single parent) was checking in on me every 15 minutes in case I got worse, and several ambulance trips to hospital where neither me nor DS knew if we'd see each other again. There were nights where I was frightened to go to sleep in case he found my corpse in the morning. For tens of thousands of people, they didn't see each other again.

I have kept panic at bay during those days by telling myself "most people don't die from this". I have walked the tightwire of being honest with DS while also not to try and put a burden on him (emotional or physical), or frighten him unduly, and I really don't know how well I succeeded with that. Most people don't die. But quite a lot do. Most people don't even get seriously ill - but quite a lot do. I had a "mild" case, and like maybe 1 in 20 who get it (the figures aren't clear) it's affected me profoundly, and I am not yet fully well. I don't know when I will be fully well.

It's possible to be delighted, absolutely delighted, that the numbers are coming down, and still very, very aware that for those people who are still getting seriously ill, and for those families who will lose someone in the coming weeks and months, this is still a crisis. I would like those people who are currently well, and whose families are currently well, never to have to go through even a "mild" case like me and my DS have done.

@archeryannie

Ok- I'm a bit confused what the point is then because I agree with you. I am delighted deaths are going down but am still very sad people have lost loved ones. I think thats the stance most people have taken. I'm not really sure what else you expect people to do.
My point was that noone else bothered to give a shit when my mum died and I find that hypocritical. Covid deaths are not "more important" than deaths of anything else- death, no matter what causes it, still rips your heart out and causes a huge painful void that you have to deal with every single day. It doesnt make it less painful because it wasnt covid.

@Russellbrandshair

And actually the fact there was no spike indicates that luckily, it didn’t matter that those people behaved like that!

No it doesn't. It means the numbers didn't drop as quickly as they might have if people follow the guidelines.

It doesn't need to be a huge spike to be a problem

@Jkslays I couldn't agree more. It's trashed my faith in human nature.

Of course it doesn't make it less painful (I've lost someone to cancer in this period.)

The point is that we are seeing many many "excess deaths" and illnesses, deaths which are, to some extent, avoidable.

If we had a disaster where an entire town slid into the sea, killing more than 40 thousand inhabitants, we wouldn't be relieved when a village "only" containing 200 people also slid into the sea. We'd be doing our damndest to avoid any more cities, towns, villages and individuals from slipping into the sea. And we'd celebrate any that we prevented, but we wouldn't stop paying attention to coastal erosion.

@covidco

Where do you hear that R is close to 2?
I’m in the NW too and pretty horrified if that’s the case

And now there are other threads about redundancy and many posters are still not willing to go back to work or leave their homes, people shielding exempted.

@psychomath great post, thank you!

If numbers start going up due to relaxing the guidelines, it's going to take quite a while for numbers to increase significantly. We will be on that bottom part of the exponential curve. But don't let's forget that we will be on that curve and eventually all that doubling up will see more and more numbers.

Don't let's get complacent. I still don't think many people truly understand exponential.

@Gwenhwyfar

"It's possible not to think this whole thing is a conspiracy theory and to also see that various governments, including our own, have taken the opportunity to use the pandemic as cover for things they wanted to do anyway."

I can't stand the Tories, but even they don't WANT to crash the economy and cause mental health problems in the population.
Orban is in Hungary, not Turkey, I think but both those countries have quite authoritarian leaders anyway.

I don't think they want to do that either and didn't say they did. Johnson, however, does not like scrutiny from the legislature on the powers of the executive. We knew this pre pandemic.

What’s coming is so much worse ... and this board is still full of ppl wittering on about non existent spikes from low risk behaviours. I mean I understand that people were scared & now would by happy to stay comfortably at home but denial can’t stop a disaster

I screen grabbed that graph too Laniakea

@BeijingBikini

Because the disease was a total scam, half of the people are asymptomatic and there's evidence it was here in Autumn, so in reality we've probably already had several waves and probably have herd immunity. Outdoor transmission also contributes fuck all to the numbers, the main spread has been within hospitals and care homes.

Also coronaviruses tend to just die out at the end of winter, like SARS did, disappeared before they even made the vaccine.

so what is the scam?

@FluffyKittensinabasket

And now there are other threads about redundancy and many posters are still not willing to go back to work or leave their homes, people shielding exempted.

I posted on that thread. I'm not sure if I'm going to be made redundant or not, but I'm not prepared to go back to work right now, even if it becomes 'permitted', which it's currently not. I have underlying conditions, though individually not on the Govt shielded list (but might have to discuss with GP if it becomes an issue with work) I cannot Social Distance in my job. I'm not putting my life at risk to do it. I'm not sure why you think I should or why you think it's wrong of me to stay at home?

I do think Sunak knew that would be the case, hence the busting financial support.

It’s what happens now and after this ends that is crucial.

You sound almost disappointed OP.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again

Would read so much better if you had added,

and isn't it a positive sign?

Dont think I ever commented on VE parties as most of them still seemed to be socially distancing. I've also always said a second wave would be smaller for a number of reasons, still surprised by quite how low it has been so far but the government is being overly cautious in releasing restrictions. There was no good reason to keep garden centres, gardens and the open parts of zoos closed as long as they did. It's also past time self catering accommodation was allowed to open up.

Still there are more than 1200 cases a day getting positive tests, the surveys suggest a higher level of infection than that. The virus has not gone away and while no-one exactly knows how many people are still susceptible it's still going to be a lot. Outside London many people have not been exposed to it yet and London's infection rate is at least twice the rest of the country - and still rising, just slowly.

As long as those most at risk are willing to continue to stay away from people those being infected will mainly not need hospital beds and even those admitted will be less likely to die. Treatment is a bit better now more is known about the virus and it's likely to continue to improve.

Once more people start to mix at less than two metres infections go up faster and it's a lot more difficult for the vulnerable to avoid infection (some have children, some need to shop) so admissions to hospital and death rates rise again.

Incidentally people close to me have lost relatives and friends to the virus. So if you think it's not real you must be a very antisocial person and also live somewhere with few cases so far.

I still don't think many people truly understand exponential

I totally agree with you.

It's clear that many don't understand the maths or the science, but it doesn't stop them spouting nonsense.

All this saying people are disappointed that numbers aren't going up is just plain ridiculous.
Of course people are pleased that things are as good as they are, but that doesn't mean that they are going to stay good. Let's hope it does, but this virus is unpredictable and dangerous. It's naive to think this is it. And bloody stupid to say people are disappointed.

BestOption - I’m not telling you what to do or to “put your life at risk.” I don’t know you from words on a screen. Merely pointing out that the country has no money left. The upcoming depression will kill more than Covid19. I’m sorry for anybody that will lose their jobs.

People cannot stay off work indefinitely and expect their jobs to be retained. Unemployment is going to be 20%.

I have asthma but I know I need to go to work. You are of course free to do whatever you want to do.

Because most of the tests are DIY even if you go to a test centre (as mine was) and there's a high chance that those of us who aren't trained to do the test haven't actually done it properly
So more people are testing negative but could actually be positive

@cyclingmad, do you think that they've been plotting this for five years? When this years deaths are compared with the last five years, we are over 50'000 up, on previous years, so nowhere near a 'bad flu' death rate. We were, when the deaths were 20'000, but not now.

The theory Derby has mentioned has, been expanded by bodies of research and rather than only 20% of people get it, we pretty much think that only 20% of people spread it. So we have a small amount of super spreaders.

Rates are going up in other countries, as they return to normal, or as in the case in the US, as they ignore the guidance. They are seeing a spike in hot spots where people got together for memorial day, for example.

Experts think that there's going to be waves, that's not doom mongering. The flights and holidays are restarting, so individual r rates become irrelevant. We are going to have global travel again. But rates going up doesn't have to mean deaths.

There's legal action been started, to get a public enquiry going into the handling of the crisis and Doctors have been the instigators. They want us to be prepared for another wave. A lot of people died because of the lack of investment in services and the government's lack of action and not giving a shit about deaths.

So we've got to move away from calling people 'doom mongers' and get behind campaigns for reducing long hospital admissions by early intervention, adequate PPE and any measures that will cut down on transmission, especially over Christmas. People have the right to meet up all they want, but all of us have the right to know that we are being kept safe when shopping. We've all stood in shopping queues for 15 minutes and normally there would be people coughing all around us. Even now people aren't covering their cough.

As for the conspiracy theorists, i don't understand why they are ignoring the evidence that a lot of misinformation has come via China and Russia. China does not want to be held responsible for another zoonotic disease, so of course it is going to spread bullshit theories. As for Bill Gates theories , perhaps they are being started by other billionaires, who don't want to be questioned over the hoarding of wealth. What Bill Gates is giving, is our equivalent of what most of us give to charities.