Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

The 7 day rolling average of hospital deaths falls below 100 which is a significant milestone. It is now 96.43

86 deaths today v/s 137 last friday

mobile.twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1271434895504617472

Big fall in the 7 day rolling average of all setting deaths. It falls to 174.29

202 deaths today v/s 357 last Friday

Because there is a lag before you see the effects of relaxing the lock-down (1-2 weeks before it affects new cases, 3-4 weeks before it affects deaths) and because people may still be continuing to socially distance effectively, despite the relaxation in the lockdown.

@BeijingBikini Sorry, my mistake. I've only seen speculation that it was in the UK that early, can you post a link to the evidence you're referring to?

My understanding is track and trace is needed for being able to have a wider opening?

Atm what we are doing with social distancing doesn't trigger a contact. Some workplaces it will and some schools. That's why both these places have bubble system to limit numbers required to isolate.

It's designed so can open up restaurants etc. I read a wile back in China 1 restaurant visitor infected 78 people! So yes, an idea would be to get everyone to register when they arrive, log their table number and time 8n and time out.

We absolutely need to get back to a normal life for those who wish to have that. Some will chose to continue to limit.

@Eckhart www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-china-outbreak-autumn-a9555996.html here is one

That's not proof, Beijing. That's speculation.

Evidence doesn't have to be proof, this is one of the things that supports a theory of covid having started in Autumn. The only evidence we have that it started in January is China's word really.

@Eckhart there is proof of very little in relation to covid.

This virus us just like Schrodingers virus. It spreads like crazy, it doesn't spread like crazy, it's deadly, it's not deadly at all, children are superspreaders, children don't spread it at all, mass events have no effect, mass events are dangerous, lots of people are asymptomatic, lots of people end up hospitalised, masks are useless, masks are mandatory, etc. The public is just perpetually confused and terrified because the information changes every 5 minutes.

Thanks Beijing I had a heated discussion with someone about this the other day, thought you'd seen something I hadn't managed to find!

Tea That was my point, but I don't know why you're making my point to me.

Problem is a lot of the numbers aren't being accurately shown to us, they aren't being counted then 3 weeks later there is a message saying oh by the way we missed these thousands of cases and deaths.

Best estimates of how many people may be susceptible come from looking at studies of entire populations - this is not good news

"Almost 60 percent of the residents of a northern Italian province tested for coronavirus antibodies had positive results, according to health officials.

Of 9,965 people in Bergamo who had their blood samples collected between April 23 and June 3, 56.9 percent had antibodies against the virus, according to a news release the province's health department sent to Newsweek."

I'm going to post what I posted on another thread:

The US CDC give an IFR of 0.26pct
This is a conservative figure as it assumes an asymptomatic rate of 35pct, when many studies have shown 50-80pct of people are asymptomatic.

IFR is probably around 0.2pct, comparable to a 'bad' flu season

Given variation in testing rates and the ways in which deaths are recorded differing between countries - and even within countries over time - the only true measure of a spike is excess mortality. We have not seen a second spike anywhere as yet.

There is increasing evidence that only 20pct of populations are susceptible as others have T cell immunity or residual immunity from a prior coronavirus infection (aka a cold)
Even on the Diamond Princess, only around a minority of passengers and crew caught the virus despite the average age being higher than average and innate and adaptive immunity weakening with age. Care homes will be higher due to the advanced years of their occupants and their depleted immune system. This is why they need protecting (which is the precise opposite of what has been done in the UK and why our excess mortality is so high)

Anyway, in normal healthy young people we are likely at herd immunity in places like London and a second wave is unlikely.

Stop the insanity now.

@alreadytaken

Best estimates of how many people may be susceptible come from looking at studies of entire populations - this is not good news

"Almost 60 percent of the residents of a northern Italian province tested for coronavirus antibodies had positive results, according to health officials.

Of 9,965 people in Bergamo who had their blood samples collected between April 23 and June 3, 56.9 percent had antibodies against the virus, according to a news release the province's health department sent to Newsweek."

That's been discussed on the Stats thread - the sample isn't random, its almost all those who had been diagnosed or who were already in quarantine because they had been exposed. So it's a test for antibodies in people we know had it or were exposed to it, so was always going to be higher than the general population. The Bergamo Health Authority and Mayor have both made this point in subsequent amendments; it seems there may have been a translation issue.

The Mayor of Bergamo said yesterday the more likely figure is around 45%.

@covidco

Thanks
I hope you're not on the Wirral where all sense of social distancing seems to have been binned.

and what caused the “death spike” in April if it was endemic since October. It makes no sense

Viruses mutate. I read somewhere that China and Italy are reporting that new infections of Covid19 in their courtries are far less severe than previously.

I think I’m starting to believe the professor Frossin theory. It seems to make sense based on my own experience. I work on a hospital ward. Like many wards we had a few coronavirus patients that most of us have looked after at some point. We also share a tiny staff room with the ward next door which had even more covid patients. Although we wore the basic surgical masks when with the patients. No PPE was worn in non clinical areas like kitchens , staffrooms, lifts etc. Around 10 percent of staff have antibodies despite most of us having similar exposure levels. Some staff members were off sick for several weeks and one staff member died. It seems on my ward most staff members didn’t get infected despite similar risks.

Antibodies are not always present in people known to be infected, the Italian figure will underestimate the number of susceptible people.

We dont know if the rest of the Italian town would have been infected at the same rate without their effective quarantine.

Positive tests today are at a level last seen 6 days ago and hospital admissions have gone up for 3 days in a row. We wont get data over the weekend so have to wait till Monday to see if this is a blip or something more.

@stairway that's really interesting. I'm fascinated by the epidemiology.

As I have elderly parents in Victoria, Australia, I have been watching the figures there in the same way I have been watching them here. This is a place that has had a total number of identified coronavirus cases of 1703, with four new cases reported yesterday. To date, 19 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria (Government press release 12 June).

Every day, as part of that government press release, they publish details of the new cases. For example, today's explaining the four positive tests for yesterday it says:
"One new case yesterday was detected in a child attending the Kangaroo Ground Pre-school. The facility will be closed for at least 24 hours from today for deep cleaning. The child attended one day while potentially infectious but was not showing symptoms at the time. Contact tracing and other public health actions are ongoing.

One of yesterday’s other cases was detected as part of routine testing and two cases were detected in returned travelers in hotel quarantine. "
Yesterdays's figures were higher than they have been and were:
2 Hotel Quarantine,
1 Attended BLM rally
1 Rydges Hotel Cluster (15)
1 Childcare in Parkville
1 Age Care in Clayton
2 under investigation.
The Rydges hotel is a hotel where they were quarantining people for the mandatory 14 days (most days there are one or two cases diagnosed in hotel quarantine), but in the case of this hotel, it got out into the staff, and as you can see, there is now a cluster of 15. A few weeks ago there was a major (for Victoria) outbreak of over 100 cases linked to a meat packing plant.
What is so interesting about these cases is, because there are so few of them, they can put a lot of effort into working out where any case came from, and they test absolutely everybody in the vicinity, and you get a real sense of how the virus spreads. One of the statistics they list is how many cases cannot be linked back to other cases and ultimately to overseas transmission (and every few days they work out where some of the new cases come from, and how they connect). If you want a real feel for how this virus spreads, looking at the statistics for somewhere with an ongoing low level of transmission, where it is being actively monitored, like Victoria, Australia, will give you a much better feel for what is really going on. As mentioned above, there was one case diagnosed yesterday of somebody who would have attended the Black Lives Matter protests while infectious. it will be very interesting to see whether that results in other infections. At the moment, the Victorian Government is telling anybody who went to the BLM protest to be vigilent, but is not telling anybody who went to quarantine for 14 days.

That is interesting Wannago, also so low that a cluster with hotel staff sounds a big deal in comparison.

One of my local hospitals has had a large outbreak of Covid again - amongst patients and nurses.

Because there is a lag before you see the effects of relaxing the lock-down (1-2 weeks before it affects new cases, 3-4 weeks before it affects deaths) and because people may still be continuing to socially distance effectively, despite the relaxation in the lockdown

This is the best answer.

@peonypower

The IFR estimate of 0.26% is based on figures where intervention has occurred. The only place where Covid swept through (like it would do for flu) most of the population before restrictions were brought in is Bergamo, the heart of the epicentre in Italy. Around half have antibodies and excess deaths at end of April were 6,000 out of 1.1m, most of which were positive or likely Covid deaths. So that’s a fatality rate of at least 0.5%. Deaths will have increased since then but I don’t have the figures.

There have been significantly more excess deaths even with lockdown than there were in the 2017-18 flu season - the worst season in 30+ years.

If you look at a of the daily briefing charts, there hasn't even been slightest blip in increasing numbers.

I never really fet the R number logic. There must be a hell of a lot of people with the virus who pass it onto zero others to get the R below 1.

If R was 0.5 then typically only 1 in two pass it onto only one other person. Do all those people live alone? It's highly transmissable 🤯