Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

.... in comparison

It's possible not to think this whole thing is a conspiracy theory and to also see that various governments, including our own, have taken the opportunity to use the pandemic as cover for things they wanted to do anyway. So the authoritarian Orban in Turkey, for example. In the case of the UK government, it's the weakening of parliamentary scrutiny and strengthening executive power. So the coronavirus laws have been statutory instruments and the role of Parliament has been minimised. None of this means shadowy forces have made it all up, it just means when people get a chance they often take it.

The number of recorded deaths has risen in past few days, hasn’t it?

VE Day gatherings around me were small, outdoor street parties, not massive gatherings. I don't approve, but I also think they were probably not as bad as very large gatherings

Yes which is why it was incredibly stupid for people to be screaming anyone who attended was a murderer and that hospitals would be overflowing 2 weeks later and there would be dead bodies in the streets etc. It was ludicrous.
The utterly bizarre thing was, when this didn’t happen you’d think those people would be happy that people weren’t dying but they weren’t. It was as if they were almost disappointed that they were wrong. As if they wanted dead bodies piling up so they could say “I told you so” 🙄

"Yes which is why it was incredibly stupid for people to be screaming anyone who attended was a murderer and that hospitals would be overflowing 2 weeks later and there would be dead bodies in the streets etc. It was ludicrous."

It was wrong to have the street parties though.

@Alexis no the ones screaming 2nd wave for VE Day have now moved on to beaches ( should show soon if true ) then protests . If nothing happens with these two than I think it will be pubs they will shout next . It's like some actually want it to be proved right , when the reality is we don't know for sure even scientists can't agree it.There may be a 2nd wave there may not , let's all hope there isn't

"It's possible not to think this whole thing is a conspiracy theory and to also see that various governments, including our own, have taken the opportunity to use the pandemic as cover for things they wanted to do anyway."

I can't stand the Tories, but even they don't WANT to crash the economy and cause mental health problems in the population.
Orban is in Hungary, not Turkey, I think but both those countries have quite authoritarian leaders anyway.

@cherrypavalova not according to daily numbers certain says always are a little lower weekend etc due to time taken to get data , but overall the if your look at it they are going Down , a long way to go yet though

It was wrong to have the street parties though

No it wasn’t- if people remained in their own gardens which from what I saw, they did. It’s no different to everyone sitting in their own gardens on any other day is it? In my street everyone stayed in their own garden and talked to each other from 2 m away. No issues at all.

"Most Covid cases are caught either in a hospital or a care home so I’m not surprised the numbers are falling."

Have you got evidence of that? Particularly as testing of the public only started on Monday, I'd think it was hard to tell.

The number of recorded deaths has risen in past few days, hasn’t it?

No, 151 deaths were reported yesterday for instance. If you’re talking about deaths recorded rather than reported, deaths aren’t typically reported on the very day they occur.

@Russellbrandshair

It was wrong to have the street parties though

No it wasn’t- if people remained in their own gardens which from what I saw, they did. It’s no different to everyone sitting in their own gardens on any other day is it? In my street everyone stayed in their own garden and talked to each other from 2 m away. No issues at all.

Ok, but in my street they didn't. They were in the actual street. We don't have front gardens. Drunk people aren't particularly good at social distancing. Drinking in your own garden is a totally different thing.

Struggling.

Maybe when I said ‘no one’, I was being somewhat facetious.

I think the number is minimal, though.

I guess if it is working, r will remain at about 0.7 and we will soon see virtually no new cases. We shall see...

Drunk people aren't particularly good at social distancing

Well you’ll always get someone who doesnt care but that doesn’t mean the entire idea was wrong. By that rationale you wouldn’t ban everyone from food shopping simply because some people aren’t adhering to social distancing.

And actually the fact there was no spike indicates that luckily, it didn’t matter that those people behaved like that!

One of the probloems with this is our concept of what is a "reasonable" rate of deaths has massively altered over the last few months.

We look at death rates of a few dozen, or a couple of hundred, and because it's lower than the massive spikes we've had in April and May, everyone goes, oh, it's going down, that's great. And it IS great - but if there was an event (an accident, a terrorist incident, whatever) six months ago that had resulted in these kinds of numbers, it would be front-page news for weeks, there's be an enquiry, a national day or mourning, maybe a monument. The vast scale of the deaths has meant that a few dozen dead, a couple of hundred dead, whatever, is met with relief, not utter horror and grief.

I'm really not sure that this is a great way for us to react.

I'm really not sure that this is a great way for us to react

How would you like us to react? what would meet your approval?

You cannot blame people for being pleased the deaths are going down. This has been a shitty, miserable time for everyone. Its good things are getting better, albeit slowly.

Because the whole thing has been some kind of weird hysteria shared by a scary number of people.

From the Guardian, quoting Professor Robert Dingwall....

'The Government's coronavirus warnings have "effectively terrorised" Britons "into believing that this is a disease that is going to kill you" even though most of those infected will not be hospitalised, one of its advisers has warned.'

'The public authorities face a challenge to manage the British people out of the levels of fear and anxiety that they have helped create through their "Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives" messaging, he warned.'

Sums up the current situation i'd say.

@BeijingBikini

Have you got a link to the evidence that COVID-19 was in the UK in August?

If I reacted with horror and grief to every one of the 1300+ deaths which occur on a typical day in an average June I wouldn’t be able to get out of bed. Why are these deaths worse?

Deaths will most probably continue fall to a lower plateau level as infection rates fall. We will all have to hope that social distancing & hygiene can keep transmission & deaths at a reasonably low level & we’ll have to salvage all we can from what remains because covid isn’t all that matters.

Why are these deaths worse

Exactly- I feel like the only deaths people care about at the moment are covid deaths. My beloved mum died of cancer- noone gives a shit about that apparently because it wasnt covid. When my mum died, everyone went about their business as normal- the world didnt stop. Why do I have some kind of moral responsibility to be mourning other people's deaths when noone else mourned my mum? why the double standard?- death is death.

@pennylane83

From the Guardian, quoting Professor Robert Dingwall....

'The Government's coronavirus warnings have "effectively terrorised" Britons "into believing that this is a disease that is going to kill you" even though most of those infected will not be hospitalised, one of its advisers has warned.'

'The public authorities face a challenge to manage the British people out of the levels of fear and anxiety that they have helped create through their "Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives" messaging, he warned.'

Sums up the current situation i'd say.

Absolutely. And know they are going to have to deal with the fall out of hundreds of thousands of people out of work because businesses collapsed and the huge fucked debt furlough has incurred

But aren’t there meant to have been 60,000 additional deaths in the last few months.

bejingbikini

Oh, a scam.

So can you explain why at the height of the virus the equivalent of three plane loads of people were dying daily?

I mean , if actual not metaphysical planes had been falling out of the sky on a daily basis for 12 weeks you would make damn sure you didn't fly wouldn't you, so why people aren't just as concerned about spreading a deadly virus defeats me.

Mind you, I must be a bit dim because I can't understand people like Beijing bikini who are walking round the smoking ruins of the crashed planes and saying " move along please, nothing to see, these piles of crushed metal and broken bodies are just a scam"