Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

I don’t trust the government to tell us the truth, I don’t think anyone knows the true numbers. What I concerns me is the number of daily deaths we are still getting.

I thought the latest figures based on the OMS survey was that around 20% of people on London have had it and between 5-9% elsewhere, so a long way to herd immunity.
I think our personal contacts are still down hugely from normal levels, community transmission is very low (around 1/1000) nationally. Weve not necessarily seen a huge increase in numbers from other countries who have exited lockdown, it's more likely well get local clusters which can hopefully be caught, tested and enough people isolated to keep transmission low.

@psychomath has it exactly right. In any situation like this we don't need all people to stay at home (in fact that is counterproductive) we need enough people to stay at home - or enough people for sufficient time. Don't forget that 1, the modelling assumed that some people wouldn't comply and 2, the UK population has, on balance, complied really well - even compared to countries with more strict lockdowns.

One of the tools for making this happen has been flooding the media with "leave your home and a fairy dies" or "all yuffs are spreading it". Not because that is, necessarily, true but because people respond to fear better than (arguable) facts.

So now we have the complex situation of unpicking all the fear mongering and convincing people to start moving - but not too much!

Sadly we have a government who choose not to treat us like adults - or a population who do not behave like adults - choose your chicken/egg as you please - so it means more manipulation of data to achieve the desired result. In the meantime a portion of society are left going "erm... this makes no sense?" because it doesn't, if you take it at face value.

Because the disease was a total scam,

That's exactly what I feel likes happened beijing

@Lynda07

Think about the oil they would be saving on this "lockdown". More people now working from home, not as much traveling around to and from work, traveling dissipated from less children going to school, less people going to work, less planes flying, anything that needs oil there's been less of.

Before all this lockdown there was a shortage of oil.

I could go on but I'll stop there.

There haven’t been 151 deaths in the past 24 hours. The figures are backdated.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-11-June-2020.xlsx

NHS England reported 10 deaths on Wednesday in hospitals.

Because the disease was a total scam

It’s difficult to believe there are still people that think this.

Do those who think the virus is a 'scam' think the government wanted to trash the economy? What benefit could there possibly be, and to whom?

Oil is now worth nothing, so who wanted to both save oil and not profit from it?

Think logically.

We've had another hundred and something deaths from Covid 19 in the last twenty four hours, so I've just read in the latest news.

Is that deaths in the last 24 hours though?

[quote priya38]@Lynda07

Think about the oil they would be saving on this "lockdown". More people now working from home, not as much traveling around to and from work, traveling dissipated from less children going to school, less people going to work, less planes flying, anything that needs oil there's been less of.

Before all this lockdown there was a shortage of oil.

I could go on but I'll stop there. [/quote]
A shortage of oil? This is amusing me greatly (I live in the Middle East, and oil prices are extremely low at the moment due to countries trying to push other countries out of the supply market). There is no shortage of oil. There are, however, a lot of very powerful people and nations desperate to start selling you oil again!

We are out and about but still not having close contact though, lots of people still not in work, no pubs, cafes are open so although some of it seems more normal, we are allowed out pretty much when we want apart from overnight, most of it is nowhere near normal. We have a long way to go.

" could go on but I'll stop there."

Yes, probably best to have a lie down.

I've been doing some amateur sleuthing on disease transmission for my dissertation and getting back to 'normal life' will see infections rise significantly. If normal life to most people means pubs, clubs, schools and offices. Transmission from shops, beaches and passing on the street is such a low risk.
Its confined spaces for a prolonged period which is a suitable climate for passing this on. Surfaces are another risk but again if community transmission is low its really not a worry.
It does make me wonder how prevalent it was in February and early March to have ended up with such a huge death toll. It must have been bloody everywhere.

Nobody is living a normal life at the moment. We may not all be sitting at home seeing no one for days on end but people are mixing significantly less than they ordinarily would. This suppressed transmission. It takes more than a few neighbours letting their kids play together to constitute normal levels of social interaction.

Someone help me out here with what couple possibly be my extremely simplistic, naive take on R.

When required the majority have been keeping social distancing with the aim to break transmission (anyone seen the matches video?) In my mind could it be the reason why we haven't seen a spike is because we have been successful in breaking that chain? The virus needs a host to survive, so if it hasn't got anyone to go to it eventually retreats? People who have needed to self isolate (hopefully) have done further reducing the transmission, and people keeping their distance in addition to this, has also helped? 🤷‍♀️

I'm OK with people disagreeing with me.. Perhaps I am just being hopeful!!!

Lynda07
We haven’t had over a hundred deaths in the last 24hrs. NHS England recorded around 19 deaths in the previous 24 hours.

Of course any death is terrible but this is where the media have a lot to answer for. So many people just read a headline and assume the figures posted are the number of deaths in the previous 24 hrs when it is the number recorded not actual deaths going back a couple of months.

Pyshomath - a brilliant explanation thankyou, and one I hope a lot of people can understand!

My apologies, as a previous poster already noted it was 10 deaths in hospitals in the previous 24 hours in England not 19.

Clearly the 2nd wave and VE rise was just scaremongering and over anxious predictions.

still to try and reduce the overall number of people you come into contact with compared to non-pandemic times, e.g. by avoiding public transport if you can and not going to the shops as often

But going to a protest without a mask and with no SD is fine?

I feel like we have been adhering to this lockdown. Financially we have been hit hard as our lives have stopped and lots are relying on UC and waiting to go back to work
Numbers of infections are coming down. I think we had a chance of getting ahead of this thing before the bad weather set in and then we have this protest which is going to send things back up again and before we know it we are back to the bad weather and flu season and even more deaths.

Interested to see the figures if they start rising in 3/4/5 weeks time.

I think it’s quite hopeful that simple social distancing can have a big effect.

However Whitty said epidemics tend to come in global waves, and another wave could very easily come our way.

@psychomath has it right I think. I’ve not used public transport and have only been to a garden centre since the end of feb. If lots are behaving like me then hopefully that has a big impact. As long as I can see family and start visiting some outside attractions then this is sustainable for me for quite a long time, I don’t need shops and I definitely don’t need to commute !

the 2nd wave and VE rise was just scaremongering and over anxious predictions

Do you think?
When mass gatherings and crowded workplaces are banned (especially for adults), the next main way c19 transmits is within homes (care homes or ordinary households, those places where people spend the night).

Because a small group of powerful people want total control over everyone and this virus was blown out of proportion deliberately so and if the real number of actual deaths was done it would be jo worse than usual flu season numbers.

There is no going back to normal we have consistently been told this is the new normal, its accelerated moving towards a cashless society, we are now so conditioned into hearing until a vaccine we could have second wave, third wave etc.

The vaccine is an attempt to chip us all, Astrazenca who is touted to he close fo one has bought out a company Hilead that receives plenty of money from Bill Gtes who openly wants people to be chipped and wants depopulation.

They say all of this in plains might to us and openly tell you all this and people stil refuse to believe it and call people conspiracy theorists.

They already experimenting the chip in europe, where the chip acts as your code to open doors in you workplace where you have right permissions and assure us it's not for anything else but we all know how that goes.

Also only have to see how much censorship is going on to steer you down a certain way of thinking.

You think how could a government allownthidn, well they are all controlled or bought into line. Trashing the economy weekend people, pit them back into poverty and easier to control. They dont care what happens to you. Their need for control and power is absolute.

Mock me all you like, deny it all you like but there is so much out there to show you, you only have open you mind to seeing to.