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Covid

Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

299 replies

Mohiqo · 11/06/2020 23:35

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

OP posts:
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Oliversmumsarmy · 15/06/2020 16:14

Isn’t flu a virus?

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Wannago · 15/06/2020 16:01

Yes, that is why (aside from the fact that my parents are elderly, and very vulnerable, with lots of carers) I keep watching these Victorian figures. Because they give so much real information. You get a much better sense from half a dozen cases per day, than you do being told that there are 1500, with little idea where, even if you go to a site like www.facebook.com/groups/224857015370702/
Who usefully compares the figures day to day, and tells you how many cases are reported in each London borough or area of the country per day (at least for the Pillar 1 figures).

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B1rdbra1n · 15/06/2020 11:37

very interesting Wannago
I used to think the reason I don't get ill very often it's because I'm v health-conscious, have a strong immune system etc but now I think a lot of it is because I'm reclusive I don't mix with people very much and so there are not many opportunities for transmission of infections.
I will be incorporating avoidance of crowds and gatherings into my health conscious behaviour from now on.

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Wannago · 15/06/2020 10:36

Last couple of days of Victorian (Australia) figures:
!3 June press release - 8 cases:
One of yesterday’s cases is a general practitioner who worked for several hours at three medical practices while potentially infectious. The doctor did not have any symptoms at the time and went into isolation immediately upon being informed they were a close contact of a confirmed case.
The GP worked at Lilydale Medical Clinic on 11 June and Cedars Medical Clinic in Coburg and Croydon Family Practice on 9 June. All sites are being appropriately cleaned.
The Department is contacting all potentially affected patients. As the doctor is asymptomatic, the risk of transmission is low, however if anyone is experiencing any symptoms they should get tested and self-isolate.
Six of yesterday’s cases were detected in returned travelers in hotel quarantine and one is a household contact linked to the Rydges on Swanston Hotel outbreak.
June 14 press release: 9 new cases:
Yesterday’s new cases are made up of three cases detected in returned travellers in hotel quarantine, one case identified through routine testing and five cases linked to two new outbreaks.

During yesterday’s investigations into a confirmed case in a general practitioner, it was identified that while at work the GP had close contact with a confirmed case, prior to their diagnosis. The doctor remains asymptomatic and went into isolation immediately upon being informed they were a close contact.

Two household family contacts of this previously confirmed case have now also been diagnosed with coronavirus, taking the total number in this outbreak to four.

The GP worked at Cedars Medical Clinic in Coburg and Croydon Family Practice on 9 June and Lilydale Medical Clinic on 11 June. All sites are being appropriately cleaned. Contact tracing of staff and patients at the three GP clinics began yesterday and is continuing, however if anyone is experiencing any symptoms they should get tested and self-isolate.
A second new outbreak was also identified yesterday among interconnected family households in Melbourne’s northern and south-eastern suburbs. Three new cases were linked yesterday to one previously confirmed case in this family taking the total in this outbreak to four. Extensive contact tracing is under way.
June 15 press release: 12 new cases:
Yesterday’s new cases are made up of nine cases linked to two outbreaks, one case detected in a returned traveler in hotel quarantine, one case identified through routine testing, and one case under investigation.
A new outbreak was identified yesterday with two new cases linked to a patient of Monash Health. One of the new cases is a healthcare worker, and the second a household contact of the patient, taking the total in this outbreak to three.
The health service is contacting all staff and patients who may have been close contacts of the healthcare worker and the patient. All areas of the health service that the health care worker has been in close contact with are being deep cleaned.
Seven new cases reported yesterday were linked to an extended family outbreak in Melbourne’s northern and south-eastern suburbs. This takes the total in this outbreak to 11. Testing of family members has been undertaken and extensive contact tracing is under way.
Two of those linked to the family outbreak are students at St Dominic’s Primary School in Broadmeadows. One of these students was at school on Tuesday 2 and Wednesday 3 June, when they were likely infectious.
The school will be closed to enable contact tracing and cleaning. Testing will be undertaken for students and teachers who were at the school from 26 May to 3 June. The school will conduct a deep clean of affected classrooms and common areas.
Pakenham Springs Primary School will also close today, initially for 24 hours, after two students from the same household outbreak tested positive. One child was infectious when attending on Wednesday 10 June. The other child was not infectious while at school. Contact tracing is under way. The school will conduct a deep clean of affected classrooms and common areas.
One case reported yesterday from routine testing attended the Black Lives Matter protest in Melbourne. The source of infection is under investigation, but at this stage there are no links to the previous case who attended the protest. They were not thought to be infectious at the time of attending the protest. They are now in self-isolation and contact tracing is underway.

So you can see, they have now worked out how the GP got infected (from a patient), there are ongoing issues related to the outbreak from the Rydges hotel, which at one point held people in hotel quarantine. There are ongoing cases of people in hotel quarantine (Australians returning home are required to stay in a hotel for 14 days). They are working on the others, it is currently not clear if the one who attended the BLM protest got it from the so far only other known case to have attended the BLM rally. Families spread it like wildfire, although generally adults to children, not the other way around. The problem with the Rydges outbreak is that not only did the staff get infected, but they took it home. The same thing happened at the earlier meat packing plant outbreak. Most of the workers got infected, but then so did their spouses, some of whom worked in old age facilities. Then one of the close contacts broke their thumb, and infected the healthcare workers who fixed it, which was actually one of the key leads to find the outbreak.

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alreadytaken · 14/06/2020 16:39

4/6/2020 1,805
5/6/2020 1,650
6/6/2020 1,557
7/6/2020 1,326
8/6/2020 1,205
9/6/2020 1,387
10/6/2020 1,003
11/6/2020 1,266
12/6/2020 1,541
13/6/2020 1,425
14/06/2020 1,514

This means that the 7 day rolling average has stopped declining. This isnt necessarily serious as these may be mild cases, the hospital admission figures tomorrow will be interesting. Number of positive cases will drop morrow as it always does for Sunday tests.

We are going to have to live with the virus for an unknown period of time because most of the population have not had it. Treatments are improving, there will be a vaccine one day but it does mean those with underlying conditions need to keep on being careful.

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Teateaandmoretea · 14/06/2020 13:57

But it isn’t flu it’s a novel virus. Spanish flu was a strain of flu, we still have flu. We live with flu and there is a constant risk it may mutate into a nasty strain.

I have no idea at all about what the rest of your post is on about, I haven’t said anything anywhere about my feelings towards riots.

But as you say in your final paragraph what is the point now in a lockdown? Let’s get on with it as best we can.

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Oliversmumsarmy · 14/06/2020 11:11

But I was saying it will end

We don’t live in fear of Spanish flu or the plague or other viruses that have come and gone

My thoughts were it will be gone one day and without these protests the numbers were going down and I thought by the end of next summer it would have fizzled out.

And then I get called pessimistic by someone who says it will never go away.

Now it is though someone doesn’t want it to go away and wants to prolong the thing for as long as possible.

Why if the most we can do is have a SD gathering of up to 6 people were the police stood by and doing nothing initially but then on the same day threatening 3 people with fines for chatting to friends whilst sitting 3-4 metres apart. It doesn’t make sense.

This was an advertised “ticketed” event. Why was it allowed to go ahead at all as opposed to being able to continue to be advertised on multiple days.

Why is there one rule for some people and another rule for others.

What is the point of lockdown if some people are allowed to do what they like to f**k over people’s lives

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Teateaandmoretea · 14/06/2020 08:51

I haven’t said it will never end I’ve said the virus isn’t going away.

With immunity it is unlikely it would never be seen again, think of measles. It is likely to mutate and immunity is unlikely to be permanent but hopefully when people get it again/ this happens their bodies will be more used to it. Dependent on how infectious it is (and no one truly knows this) track and trace may work well.

That the virus won’t ever go away isn’t pessimism. Pessimism is then taking that belief and deciding that schools will be closed for a year, there will be a massive new spike every time someone has a glass of wine with their neighbour and that we will never get back to normal so it ‘never ends’

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Oliversmumsarmy · 13/06/2020 23:59

People attending a large on a singular occasion is unlikely to have much effect on the rate of transmission, as long as they were following the rules for a few weeks before attending and then return to following them for the next few weeks, as the lack of contact with others before the gathering will have reduced the incidence of the virus at it and continuing to avoid contact after a gathering will avoid those who caught the virus at the gathering from passing it on

But these protests weren’t on one day alone then everyone went home and isolated these protests have been going on for days.

They might have started as an eventbrite event but that as far as I can see was for one day only.

I am wondering how they are allowed to advertise this with today’s regime

Teateaandmoretea
I don’t see how me saying that with immunity I can see an end to this is pessimistic and yet you saying it will never end is realistic and not pessimistic.
At some point people will get this and become immune. At some point it will end.

Why would the acreage of the hospital be the areas where people come from that have the most infections

People come from streets and towns around a hospital. I would imagine no one actually lives in the hospital grounds.

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Teateaandmoretea · 13/06/2020 20:56

I’m just accepting the reality of it. Unless we close our borders forever there is no chance at all of being completely virus free unless it mutates and dies out.

Acceptance isn’t pessimistic. Our lives are less safe than they were before (but life was never safe anyway).

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Oliversmumsarmy · 13/06/2020 20:54

So you are calling me pessimistic to be saying we won’t be clear by next year but then say we won’t ever be clear of it.

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Teateaandmoretea · 13/06/2020 20:52

I think we need to accept that the virus is here to stay

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Oliversmumsarmy · 13/06/2020 20:50

If this will be over this year then when will we be clear

September, October, November?

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Teateaandmoretea · 13/06/2020 20:47

So what’s the magic number? Confused

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Oliversmumsarmy · 13/06/2020 20:47

I didn’t think I was being pessimistic.

Unless we get the infection rate right down in the next 8-12 weeks I think there will be a surge in infections over the colder months and we will be back to square one next spring

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Teateaandmoretea · 13/06/2020 20:46

The thing is oliviasmummy being pessimistic just hurts you. It doesn’t help in any way at all.

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PatriciaHolm · 13/06/2020 20:42

The current daily testing data is quite spectacularly useless, unfortunately.

For it to be helpful, we would need to know how many people are being tested (not number of tests) and when that test was done. We don't know either. The former has been "temporarily" paused, and the positive tests are reported against the date the result is received, not when the test is done. So it's conceivable that many of the tests were actually conducted days ago.

The PHE dashboard provides some insight into when Pillar 1 positive tests were actually done, but they only make up about a third of the relevant tests now so it's not very helpful. I've attached the graph - blue is day data, orange is 7 day rolling average. All going down, but this is not wider population stats, it's hospital/health and care worker tests so only of limited insight.

(Pillar one is swab testing in Public Health England (PHE) labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health and care workers. Pillar 2 is wider population).

Why aren’t the numbers going back up?
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Oliversmumsarmy · 13/06/2020 20:40

Why shouldn’t I be pessimistic.

When do you realistically think we will be free of this

The protests haven’t exactly helped
4/6/2020 1,805
5/6/2020 1,650
6/6/2020 1,557
7/6/2020 1,326
8/6/2020 1,205
9/6/2020 1,387
10/6/2020 1,003
11/6/2020 1,266
12/6/2020 1,541
13/6/2020 1,425

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Teateaandmoretea · 13/06/2020 20:10

@alreadytaken we need context. The total number of results that were returned that day and the number who were in hospital for something else when they were tested. Off you go to add some context to your random numbers.

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HaveAtEm · 13/06/2020 17:42

Oh dear @cyclingmad you are so far down that rabbit hole you ain't never getting back out 🤷‍♀️

The second you started with the word 'elite' I knew you were a lost cause. Sad really, it's an illness, but you just can't see beyond the tin foil 🤦‍♀️😢

Bless you 🙁

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alreadytaken · 13/06/2020 17:37

Updated with latest figures for the number of positive test
4/6/2020 1,805
5/6/2020 1,650
6/6/2020 1,557
7/6/2020 1,326
8/6/2020 1,205
9/6/2020 1,387
10/6/2020 1,003
11/6/2020 1,266
12/6/2020 1,541
13/6/2020 1,425

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Devlesko · 13/06/2020 17:22

Oliversmumsarmy

Why are you and only a few others talking about not being rid of the virus until next year.
I'm being honest and as trying to work out whether it was because you really know what you are talking about and I should trust your logic.

Or, you know about it and are naturally a pessimist.
I'm hoping it's the former because that would be the distraction I think we are being given. Not that i expect you to share my opinion. Thanks

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Devlesko · 13/06/2020 17:14

Of course not, but I think they were responsible for the whipping up of hate.

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Oliversmumsarmy · 13/06/2020 16:52

it wasn't looking like it would be quick enough for Boris and Chums, so they threw in a few protests and riots to bring it on a bit quicker

Are you saying they got an American policeman to kill George Floyd to incite the riots

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Teateaandmoretea · 13/06/2020 16:51

@oliversmumsarmy. I imagine it would usually be the acreage of the local hospital.

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