"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

I'm

Nobody knows exactly, but some governments are being a lot clearer about their first steps out of lockdown and what it is they think ‘prolonged social distancing measures’ might actually look like. That’s not because the virus is better known in Ireland or Germany or France or Italy or Vietnam than it is here.

I'm not sure any government has said exactly what they will do.

I do remember the UK government saying it would probably be in waves. A gradual lifting of some restrictions and then lockdown again for a while and so on.

Prolonged social distancing I would think is gyms, pubs, clubs, cinemas, sport, non essential shops, Kind of the lockdown in reverse, because we didn't suddenly lockdown. Our government gives us lengthy daily updates, which is more than a lot of other countries do. Not sure what else they can do, apart from updates in the morning and afternoon? Twice a day, instead of once

But this is all a just fine detail anyway, because this is not going to end anytime soon. We have been told this from the start and apart from that It's obvious now anyway, across the world, that we are in this for the long haul and might as well just get on with it

Japan lifted some restrictions a few weeks ago and has just seen a big spike in cases. So will have to lockdown again I expect

Plus if businesses fold and there isn’t the money to pay staff redundancy who has to pay? The government.

I don't believe anything they tell us in the briefings beyond the figures and even then without mass testing and not including non hospital deaths it's all wafty.

We were told originally tests were going to start. They haven't in any meaningful way.

I went for a 2ww screening and will never go again, being treated like a total time waster (despite having to have a biopsy) has made me decide not to seek any help from the nhs for anything in lockdown.

All my dc appointments and therapy are pretty much stopped - phone calls are pretty pointless for some of them.

His EHCP is worthless.

The press briefings are just waffle now, no decisive action and tbh I get nothing from it except the ridiculous parroting of stay home save lives protect the nhs like some mantra to keep us all safe. What's the plan then? Keep us all at home until they can let more of us out to die/get ill in controllable numbers. It's not very sophisticated.

The UK has possibly the highest deaths per capita in the world according to that FT report

The FT journalist specifically said on Twitter that the same excess deaths would affect countries across the world. Some countries are including care home data ( Germany, France, Belgium etc) but not deaths at home. He said that the only reason that they were able to accurately model the UK deaths is because the ONS provides such good data at an early stage.

The FT is working through the other countries.

Nobody knows exactly, but some governments are being a lot clearer about their first steps out of lockdown and what it is they think ‘prolonged social distancing measures’ might actually look like. That’s not because the virus is better known in Ireland or Germany or France or Italy or Vietnam than it is here

No- but we are behind most of them in terms of the pandemic and lock down. We can watch their changes and learn.

The point is a long supression of this because of the capacity of the NHS.

I do completely understand the argument for the NHS. I understand the point of the lockdown is to flatten the curve and keep NHS resources available.

But I'm not really seeing any of that logic playing out right now?

On one hand we are apparently just now starting to see a slight flattening of the curve (because of the actions we've all taken)... so we are at the peak? Or just over the peak? And yet the nightingale hospitals are sitting empty.

Meanwhile, they're leaving people until they are literally turning blue before they take them into hospital? While the hospitals aren't yet at capacity?

So why aren't we letting off the tap until (or just before) the hospitals reach capacity and then locking down again?

And people who are still suffering with all the things mentioned, like strokes and heart attacks are dying anyway because they're too scared to go to hospital.

People are dying (and will die) because they're not getting screening, operations, and treatment. My daughter is waiting on an appointment in the eye hospital that has been cancelled twice now. Her eyesight could be getting worse while we wait.

I guess what I disagree with is the "save covid lives at any cost" rhetoric.

At the cost of mental health. At the cost of children's emotional wellbeing. At the cost of social interaction with family. At the cost of domestic abuse and child neglect. At the cost of jobs. At the cost of homes. At the cost of education. At the cost of non-covid deaths.

We can all believe what we're doing is keeping deaths low, but there's still a fuck tonne of people dying who are getting treatment. We've not run out of beds or ventilators yet. So it seems like no matter what we do people die anyway. And there really is no help for that. There isn't a cure. Or a vaccine. Or any feasible way out of this anytime soon other than letting people die.

We're just kicking the can down the road.

Some people are acting like lockdown is a viable way to go on until the vaccine. I don't think it is. As I've said below, lockdown isn't equal for everyone. Some people can last a lot longer than others. I personally think I could probably last longer if my circumstances were different. But that's not my life.

I think the sooner there is "public unrest" i.e more people doing what I intend to do, the sooner we will move to social distancing. And I can cope with that. I'm not completely heartless. I'm not shouting for pubs and restaurants to be open, or to go to concerts or jet abroad on holiday. I don't even care if shops open.

I just want to see my partner and visit my close family, and I want to be able to sit on some grass in the summer with my children. I don't think those are huge things to ask for. I'm willing to sacrifice quite a lot (I'm homeschooling, working from home and taking a pay cut, no bloody delivery slots which I rely on, no holidays or meals out).

I think the whole of society needs to be reasonable and understand that complete isolation of an adult with two children for months on end with no outside space is quite a huge ask when the threat to them is practically zero.

@SnydeValley THANK YOU for those posts. You are not the only person to feel this way but very very few are honest enough to speak up and say that altruism to society as a whole and trust in the non-plan of our government can only be maintained for so long when that comes at a cost to your own family. I cannot tell you how much better it makes me feel to read someone saying what I believe many of us are thinking.

To the people saying breaking current restrictions will lead to further restrictions, maybe so. But maybe not. Our police forces are nowhere near the size of those in other countries, perhaps they can patrol town centres, beauty spots, main roads. Can they be on every corner? Every park bench? Every back road? I doubt it. Can they police what I do in my own home or others homes? I can't see it. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong. All the more reason to live a bit of life now.

I am sick of the 'all in it together' narrative. This is a convenient line we are all being spun, in an attempt to keep up morale and keep us compliant with lockdown conditions. Why is everyone swallowing it? It is clear that we are not being impacted equally. So what 'all in it together' means is 'all must accept restrictions which impact everyone to different degrees and benefit each to different degrees and in return we cab sweeten the pill with feelings of community spirit'. Well you can keep your community spirit. I'm not 'in it together' anymore. Thank you @snydevalley for being the only person so far to use the word 'selfish', may there be many more such honest statements.

I just wish they would be more truthful. At least it might mean people would stop having to second guess everything.

And I wish they would get the testing done and have more accurate figures. Every day the press announce x number of people have died of the virus, everyone I’ve spoken to have assumed the number given is the number who have died over the last 24 hours which is not the case at all as numbers are so delayed it it is just making people even more worried and confused.

Testing- a friend told me that her brother has had the virus a few weeks ago, I had had no reason to doubt them and assumed they had had a test to know they had had it. then after chatting more they said they never had a test it was just 111 who told them on the phone that it sounds like it might be the virus. How many people now assume. They have had the virus but In fact may have just had another virus.
These tests need to be available to a much larger number of people.

I see where snyde is coming from.

Judging on the total lack of effort to do any sort of social distancing in all my local supermarkets, I’m not at all convinced the British public can be trusted to do it at all!

would rather take their chances than spend months of life with no human contact and nothing to look forward to.

I know quite a few people who feel the same. The thought of no other human contact for months on end is beginning to really affect their mental health. I suspect as the weeks go on more and more people will end up visiting family and friends, and I don't blame them one bit.

My Gran is 78 with a heart condition. Granddad in his 80s with pulmonary fibrosis. Neither are prepared to shield for longer than 3 months. Both say what's the point in being alive at all.

@SnydeValley

👏 and thank you for saying this so thoughtfully and articulately. I’m WFH while looking after toddler DD at the moment and don’t have much time to engage in long debates, but just wanted to say that I hear you and agree, even through my own situation sounds in many ways much easier than yours (I have a DP and a garden for a start).

FWIW most of my social circle (single under 40s and couples with nursery/school aged DC) are now feeling the same. After initially wholeheartedly embracing the lockdown and following ‘the rules’ to the letter, there is now much (quiet) talk of beginning to flout guidelines, taking children to see DGP and so on. People are sitting chatting on the grass in our local park (I’m sure they would be sitting on benches if the council hadn’t taped them all up). Picnics and ball games are now creeping in.

Most people have a tolerance level and I think it’s now being breached - especially as so many younger, healthy people are now aware of the relatively low risk the virus poses to themselves and their immediate family. We are bored, restless and frustrated, and tired of being treated like small children by those in authority. I don’t even think it’s especially selfish, just pragmatic - vaccine or no vaccine, we simply cannot go on like this indefinitely.

Some of the last posts have gone off track a bit, and there are many posters who will give examples of their personal situation, and how they feel, and I get that, honestly I do.
But they haven't said (the Government, advised by the scientists) that the current lockdown will be the one going forward. They have said some of the restrictions will need to stay in place for up to a year. They haven't said, you won't be able to do many of the things that some of us are struggling with, they just can't say yet, what the loosening of the restrictions will be. It may well be that they loosen the restrictions on visiting family, or allow small shops to open, whatever. But we don't know, because they don't know. So all the posters saying, "I just wish they'd be open and tell us" need to realise that it isn't that they know and are keeping their plans hidden, they haven't got the data to form their plans yet.
And the key test that Raab has set out, as advised by the government is to prevent a second peak. They can't do that without the current lockdown in place for a few more weeks. Posters who are adamant that they will break the rules, for want of a better phrase, are unable (or unwilling) to see and understand the dangers of this. The scientists know what they are doing. The government (Boris) said weeks ago that they would not hesitate to tighten lockdown restrictions if necessary. So once again, go ahead and do what you want to do, and agree with each other, but please accept this lockdown isn't a punishment imposed on us, it's a necessary measure to protect us all.
Arguing won't change a thing - enough people break the lockdown, the lockdown gets extended and possibly tougher. That's a fact. The scientists know better than us, and if we can't understand about flattening curves and NHS capacity, then trust that they do.

newwnamme - I am in a shielded group because of a heart problem. I cannot let my DDs into my home. We do talk from either end of the garden though.

I think that the government will gradually reduce the measures for specific groups, one at a time. This will result in a climb in cases, but hopefully will over time increase the number of people who are immune and we will then be heading towards herd immunity.

I think that people like me who are in the shielded group will remain so until that immunity is achieved, there is a vaccine or there are efficient treatments.

All we can do is adapt our lives as best we can. It is a challenge, but I am hoping that some long term positives will emerge: more working from home with the result that there is less pollution and stress; a greater emphasis on self-sufficiency as a country and not simply touting round for the cheapest option however many thousands of miles away it might be; self-sufficiency in food production getting more emphasis, with government support for food producers.

One can only hope. Stay safe.

From watching the Channel 4 programme last night involving a panel of Scientists it seems so clear that the scientists all over the World are trying to understand this new virus and trying to understand it very quickly. Until more is known about how the virus works they cannot offer accurate advice to the Government about how to implement a lifting of lockdown measures but they know that they have to as the economy cannot withstand lockdown. Reading the Blair Institute report covers many different eventualities. I think they also are looking to other European countries who are ahead of us to see how they get on with some of the measures being lifted. However, it always comes back to the base that without a vacination/and or effective medical treatment once caught certain measures will simply have to be in place until such time as the medical side has caught up and created safe and effective treatments. We have been told for really quite a while that there will be a new way of living through this until a vacine is created.

And I am speaking as a person who runs my own company which has been decimated as it is in the hospitality area with zero business even though this year was looking really good until the virus hit. This virus has been on my radar since known in China as all major importers were talking about factory closures etc. How it was not properly on the Government's radar is another matter.

@Frompcat Thank you! I came on to post this exact point and you've already done it. I know people are on edge but not sure why you're getting such animosity. It's an entirely valid point...I've been doing pretty well with this whole situation, but that particular statement nearly broke me. Because it was just so EMPTY... there is nothing at all there to go off, to set your sights on, try and work towards. It's not about being shocked. It's about trying to construct boundaries of normality in an existence that has been hugely shaken up. They aren't giving us any solid foundations. And if it isn't possible to do so, that's understandable but at least openly telling us that would be a statement of fact in itself. The vaguery is frankly terrifying.

@SnydeValley completely agree with you and so do most people I know IRL

The economic projections are showing a 35% drop in GDP and many years of recovery. People who think it will be a "blip" then everyone waltzes back into their jobs are deluded. No modern business was designed with social distancing in mind - and many businesses will be bankrupt if made to do social distancing. Unless coffee shops start charging £15 for a coffee for the 3 customers in there, they will shut.

I am left bemused.

I thought that Chris Whitty gave a very detailed set of responses, using very short words for one reporter. He explained simply and in more complex language that:

There are many many strands to any relaxation of lockdown - and he named 5 as samples of what was being constantly juggled

That each strand has many variations

That every variation has a significantly different interaction with every other strand, and it's variations

That modeling of this is ongoing, includes many other countries and many individuals

Then he re explained the R measure

Then he re explained the interactions being modelled

And more about when those measures would be available, when SAGE would next be reporting etc

I don't know how much more information he, and others, have to give before people will stop saying we are not being told about an "exit strategy" - a term they have all refused to agree is appropriate, given the above complexities.

Every day journalists try different ways of asking the same question. Speakers try different ways of explaining why it can not / will not be done, add details, explanations...

And still the same question is asked.

There is no answer..There won't be for a while. People claiming to have a timed plan are getting ahead of the science. That may, or may not backfire. Whichever, it will be factored in.to every other country's response.

It's not that anyone is being treated like a child. It's more that some people don't like the thought of there being no answer. It's scary. Nobody likes a situation where there is no perceived control.

But that is where we are! That is where every country is.

But that is where we are! That is where every country is.

It’s not, though, is it? Other countries are already setting out more detailed plans for what ‘social distancing measures’ might look like after lockdown. Some of the countries a bit further ahead of us are putting dates on future first steps, some of them are already there.

You can believe it’s not appropriate to discuss these things if you wish to but the public is going to get increasingly frustrated when it looks like more and more other countries are getting ahead on this and sharing more information about their thinking. Because otherwise, people will worry that the government isn’t actually making any decisions and isn’t doing the planning work necessary to get out of lockdown while still suppressing the virus.

I don't agree Curious. Other countries have been telling their citizens in detail what will and will not be allowed when lockdown measures are partially lifted.

OK! If that was a reply to my whole post you missed just about everything I actually said and plumped for the shortest sentence.

I read your entire post. You said nothing I don't already know and my point still stands.