"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

I'm fully aware it isn't going back to normal and nor did I expect it to, that wasn't the point of my post.

I agree that they need to be a little more specific about what they really mean. Some people have taken his words to mean lockdown until vaccine, others think it just means no festivals etc.

I was in a meeting yesterday (NHS) which has basically outlined that we will indefinitely be offering remote assessments and virtually no face to face work until a vaccine etc is found. In a bid to reduce transmission basically.

I think they know some of the measures that will be needed but aren't ready to say. This could backfire if people get fed up and do what they like.

Chris Whitty did seem negative but I took it to be realistic and trying to make people realise that we are still not in a good place. So many ppl starting to say oh it’s positive the numbers are going down we don’t have to worry so much now. He did say some measure will be in place for a long time, this is nothing new, and he did say it will depend on what the government decide to do. He explained that relaxing each measure will have an impact on the infection spread and therefore some might be relaxed and some might have to be tightened. There is a trade off to be made in order to ensure the infection spread (the ‘r’) stays below 1. They are calculating what impact each change could make and trying to make combinations that will keep the r low enough. It’s very complicated and can’t just be decided because people want it to be. If they get it wrong and there is a huge spike and we have to lockdown again or introduce stricter measures then that is not good for anyone either

I thought Angela Merkel's update the other day was good. She talked about transmission rates, and "if we have X transmission rate, hospitals will be overwhelmed by June, but if we have Y transmission rate then we'll be ok until August" etc.

I really think the government need to do something similar here. Even if it's "We need the number of new infections to be less than x for 5 days. Once we reach that point, we will look at reopening smaller shops" or something along those lines.

Just give some idea that there's some kind of plan!

Don’t talk shit meguffin

Its fucking boring

Just give some idea that there's some kind of plan

I feel like a fucking mushroom

I haven’t got a massive issue if there is no plan...just say there is no plan

Stop with the whole ‘dont want to confuse the british public’ bit

Not seeing my dad for months and months is just not on! I just hope the care home takes on board that the elderly need visitors.
They will have to put something in place like such as rota for visits. 😕

Is this really a shock to anyone?

Of course even when lockdown is relaxed a little social distancing will need to be practiced this virus isn’t going anywhere.

But Chris has also talked about transmission rates

He wants to keep the R0 below 1 for the foreseeable future

They are treating the general public like children.

This has been my feelings since Day 1, basically.

It's all soundbites and bullshit.

"We're listening to the science"

"We're taking the right action, at the right time"

But they would never tell us what action. What steps. What plan.

What is the plan!???

If they don't have a plan I REALLY don't blame them, I just want them to actually admit that.

I haven’t got a massive issue if there is no plan...just say there is no plan

Yes, exactly!!!

Is this really a shock to anyone?

No, as I stated in my OP and several times since 🙄

People.are getting fed up of being treated like children. I predict what will follow is people.are going to start feeling less cooperative. Obviously I cannot go to pubs that aren't open but there is no way I will be keeping up with no social contact outside my household indefinity. I doubt I will be the only person to have already made this decision.

He wants to keep the R0 below 1 for the foreseeable future

Do people do this on purpose just to show off that they “know the lingo”?? 😒

I'm not fussed about the pub, I just want to see my family.

Also those in industries like hospitality and the theatre need certainty. My best friend works for a theatre and they're planning for Autumn shows. If the government knows those shows aren't happening then they need to say, and they need to say now.

@Frompcat ''They are treating the general public like children''

You have hit the nail here. People are ok with measures when being kept in the loop about why and how they are working. But this is just dragging on because a slew of incompetents can't make a decision. The lockdown is gradually ending by virtue of so many people starting to socialise again and that is impossible to police.

I don't care if I never touch anyone again as long as I don't get this virus.

It seems we have at least moved on from

Hysterical = Realistic

To

Negative = Realistic

We have a problem with acknowledging 'realistic' in general in this country. This is due to politics being driven by populist narratives in ever increasing levels for the past 20 odd years.

We will eventually get to realising realism is real.

But we still have a couple of stages of twisting language to go.

What’s the point in them trying to guess? Yes they probably have ideas in mind, but they can’t start telling the public what they have planned because
A) it depends on how the numbers go and
B) the minute you say to people that the rules are going to be relaxed, people will run with that and start undoing all the good.

They really can’t win. If they came out and said in 3 weeks time they would start allowing people out and about, and then that didn’t happen, can you imagine the uproar! They are doing it the best way possible, and to try and keep people adhering to the rules as much as possible.

Believe me, with a baby due in 4 weeks time who probably won’t meet any family members for god knows how long, I more than anyone want an end to this, or some idea of what’s to come. But I don’t want broken promises, or idiots to start messing it up for those of us that have done our best to isolate completely.

I don't care if I never touch anyone again as long as I don't get this virus.

You know most of us are likely to get it don't you. This lockdown isn't about eradicating it.

This thread is giving me fucking anxiety.

I cannot do this home working/homeschooling thing for much longer, let alone until the end of the year. I just can’t. It’s too much. It’s not a sustainable arrangement.

The problem is that we do not in practice know what the actual effect of individual measures are on reducing the transmission rate so it's really difficult for the government to say exactly what package of measures will be in place when. We can say what the effect of current lockdown measures would be with good compliance, because we currently have that and we can observe what effect it has had on transmission rates. But the effect of other measures cannot be known, only modelled based on best guesses. It's likely to be an incremental lifting of measures (potentially followed by some/all being reimposed) as the government try to establish what the effect is of an individual measure, and what combination prevents the NHS being overwhelmed. That's without any of the economic considerations about how long you can sustain some measures and the impact to business.

They really can’t win. If they came out and said in 3 weeks time they would start allowing people out and about, and then that didn’t happen, can you imagine the uproar! They are doing it the best way possible, and to try and keep people adhering to the rules as much as possible.

Then he should have said "at the moment we don't know what social distancing measures will be required. We do know that some will need to be in place until there is a vsccine or effective treatment, but we don't know what those will be until we look at the numbers. As soon as we know, we will inform you"

Not "oh some severe social distancing measures will continue".

iMoan7

Me neither. Its unsustainable.

ferretface thanks, that was a helpful post and what the government ought to be saying really!