"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

Although apparently car thefts have gone up 60% as everyone's drive is now a "car showroom", so maybe they're busy dealing with those

"I’m not giving up and I won’t I’m as compliant as I was at the start because I know it’s not just about me and assuming the risk I would be comfortable with but it’s hard going isn’t it"

But those who insist we all commit to lockdown are being "all about me" in their approach. What about those who fundamentally disagree with this? Don't we have rights?

Does anyone else feel like Chris Witty will get a ticking off for what he said tonight?

I wondered if it was deliberate on his part actually. He was very honest, not holding back, not sugar coating anything - bleak as the picture was that he was painting. He was not being optimistic for the sake of being optimistic. It really was quite a serious and frightening forecast - I’ve not heard him sound like this before - previously he’s also tried to also offer some reassuring bits as well.

I wondered if maybe there is pressure being applied from elsewhere to loosen the lockdown for economic reasons - that he does not agree from a science perspective and was making his own position very publicly clear as a matter of professional integrity in his part.

I for one certainly trust his experienced and expert opinion FAR FAR more than Intrust anything that comes out of any politicians mouth.

It's not all reducible to 'science' though. How we choose to live as a society is actually a philosophical question not a scientific one

I think the UK government are not saying much because they haven't got a clue. It's an embarrassment to watch every night - one bumbling fool after another. What do they think - we're all going to stay locked up until they find a vaccine? Only way out is testing, testing and more testing but they can't even get that right. Of course it's awful so many people dying but what about all the others having operations cancelled, cancer treatments postponed, not to mention people losing their jobs and possible homes? You only have to look to Germany to see just how useless Bojo and his team of clowns are.

'people failing to adhere to the rules (which are difficult for everyone, not just you) is one way to guarantee that the lockdown drags on for even longer.'

I'm absolutely not trying to start a huge argument but I really don't understand this logic?

If everyone adheres to lockdown rules completely, from what I can see, we're just kicking the can further down the road.

I think I do understand this logic, but disclaimer I am not an expert. We are kicking some infections down the road so the virus will continue, but the more we all adhere to lockdown the quicker lockdown itself can end. This is because they want to be sure the transmission rate has reached a low point where they estimate it can be suppressed at a low level for the foreseeable, in combination with certain measures. The measures like testing, distancing etc are not a feasible way to suppress the virus if the value of R is too high when lockdown ends. Whitty has said it must be below one and the lower the better in terms of the options it gives us in deciding the other measures.

The more we all adhere to lockdown the more likely it is we can bring that R value down promptly. If enough people flout it or give up too soon, the value will stop falling and/or even rise. That will shut off our escape route out of the type of lockdown we have right now.

One thing I do wonder is that alongside getting R down they also have to get in place capacity to do testing, provide PPE, trace contacts, rearrange NHS services to a transitional state...not sure how the timing of that works in coinciding with timing of restriction easing.

The UK aims are not quite the same but the link below shows some of the WHO criteria to meet in order to ease lockdown. The first is that transmission must be controlled.

www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/13-april-who-briefing-coronavirus-covid19-lockdown-restrictions-guidance/

Ps some of the confusion about delaying infection kicking things down the road might come from the idea that we were going to let this virus travel through large numbers of the population, even if we had to use a series of lockdowns and peaks to do so within nhs capacity,

We are not doing that for the moment. It became clear that The speed of exponential growth in cases and deaths was too high, and the economic cost too great. So as I understand it they now feel we need to keep the virus suppressed at a much lower level for some time, while vaccines and/or drug therapies are worked on. If we don't get either of those, I don't know what happens. We should have more knowledge about how many might be immune by then I guess, if any.

But those who insist we all commit to lockdown are being "all about me" in their approach. What about those who fundamentally disagree with this? Don't we have rights?

I suppose like everyone else we just need to comply with the law of the land, or face the consequences if we don’t x

Also I am not insisting we all commit to lockdown. I am controlling all I can, which is my own response

Although apparently car thefts have gone up 60% as everyone's drive is now a "car showroom", so maybe they're busy dealing with those

Not my drive, my car’s shite

To all those who and homeschooling at the same time. We are in extraordinary times. Stop trying to cover all the bases as if life is normal. Wherever possible give your children more ownership of their days. Your family needs to be a team. Your children need to but out and take care of themselves when you need to work. Your needs as breadwinner are paramount, not your children's needs. The whole experience of life in lockdown is an education in itself. Get them to plan and prepare meals, do a stock check of the family's food, help with housework and gardening. You

*to all those who are wfh and homeschooling

Completely agree joystir59

To be fair @joystir59 I'm already doing that. I'm not going to martyr myself when half the kids are still in schools learning nothing and, like you said, bringing in money has to be priority.

But it's still incredibly difficult. My kids are actually good as gold. They're not climbing the walls and they haven't turned feral (yet!). They're just spending a fucking insane amount of time on iPads without any human stimulation or contact and I don't think that's good for them. At all.

We don't have a nice garden with a trampoline. In fact, we don't have a garden at all. We're in a small flat, in a city, like huge swathes of the population.

I do drive but got rid of my car because I stopped using it. Got a Sainsbury's delivery every week. Now, apparently even though there was ALWAYS available slots there are now none, ever. They've just stopped delivering to their formerly loyal customers. Rather than doing everything possible to increase capacity and offer additional help to those who need it.

People need to start realising that this lockdown isn't equal. We're not "all suffering". We're not "all in this together".

I think I would be far more obliged to think I could keep this up if I was still working and my kids were in school, or I had a husband for some actual adult interaction, or even if I had a bloody garden so I could have a cup of tea in the sunshine. Maybe if I had a car and could actually buy enough shopping in one go to last me a week. Or if I lived in the country.

But I don't have any of those things.

And the cold, harsh reality is that I could not care less about this virus. People can shout and scream all they want that it's killing young and healthy people, but that's just not backed up by statistics. That's a way of making themselves feel better. Yes, some young and healthy people may be dying but the risk is so minuscule it's barely worth thinking about. People don't like this opinion but I don't really understand why I'm supposed to sacrifice so much for something that doesn't effect me, when nobody else has ever done that, ever do you see people sacrificing to end malaria, which is killing children in Africa? No, you don't. But now suddenly it effects a proportion of us, so we're all supposed to shut up and put up?

And I know a lot of others who think similarly. We just can't be vocal about it. People who are even worse off than me, who as well as not having a nice garden or whatever, have also lost their jobs. People who are actually in the high risk category - over 70 - who couldn't give two shits and would rather take their chances than spend months of life with no human contact and nothing to look forward to.

And I'm afraid I have reached my limit.

They're not telling us anything. I'm inclined to think that's because they don't have a plan.

I will follow the guidelines for the rest of this three week period and then I'm out. I'll take my less than 0.02% chance with the virus, thanks very much.

The lockdown is gradually ending by virtue of so many people starting to socialise again and that is impossible to police

I don't think so, I think it could be policed if that was policey. I think they are choosing not to police it and see what happens.

After this virus, there will be another one along. In maybe a year or two or three? Because there are always viruses - some more dangerous than others. Are we going to react in this way when new viruses come along. Another SARS or Ebola or bird flu or maybe a bad flu season which can kill more than 25,000. The country cannot sustain lockdowns each time. We’ll all go mad and/or broke!

@SnydeValley so well said. Agree - am going to adhere to the current 3 weeks then start seeing my partner

I think that if people do choose to kick against the restraints of a lockdown, and of course I can understand why some would do this, then they (the Government) would have no hesitation in strengthening the lockdown and enforcing stricter laws.
People saying that they are going to do what they want because they have had enough, if it goes on much longer, need to understand that by doing what they want, they will achieve nothing apart from forcing harder restraints to be imposed upon us all.
This is a very difficult time, for some of us it is worse than for others. But we have to accept that it is happening, it is out of our control. Of course we can choose to ignore the lockdown, either in the next few weeks or months, but all that will do is prolong the lockdown, and possibly make it much stricter.
We are all uncertain and scared, I know I am, I can't look to far ahead, because the implications of all this terrifies me. So naturally we want answers to questions to reassure us. There are none. Yet. Because like they say repeatedly, they don't have enough data/information etc to give us answers. All they know (and it isn't Whitty who makes the decisions by the way, he advises the government), is that lockdown works. Social distancing works. They want a vaccine and medication, and they are working flat out for both. But both are very very unlikely to happen until next year. So some of the lockdown measures will stay in force until then. So going back to the 'some' of the OP, we naturally want to know which ones and how. They are looking at this, and will let us know when they have explored the best options. And that won't be for some weeks.
I haven't made any of this up, it is what has been said, yesterday, and previously.
Some of us are finding it really hard to accept, because it's bloody awful. So we try to twist what they're saying, to make it easier to take.

The truth is what Chris Whitty said. And it's unpalatable. But it is the truth, however much we'd love it to be wrong.

Im guessing it'll be mainly no group gatherings, and maybe controlled numbers in pubs/supermarkets/shops etc, I expect to queue to get in places for a long time.

I do wonder about the cinema and theatre industry, and gig venues, surely they will all fold?

I don't think they can feasibly stop people seeing their family and friends, as humans we need that interaction to survive, we are not built to live like this long term.

I am interested in why people think it ok to ignore the lockdown advice now but followed it 2 weeks or so ago? That is a genuine Q not inflammatory. The death rate is still high and the advice hasn’t changed so why are people starting to say they are going to mix and do what they like?

@BeijingBikini - my thoughts exactly. I work/worked in a pub at the weekends.
Before this they could only manage with their Summer season which had to be heaving. There is absolutely NO way they could continue with restrictions to clientele.

The death rate as repirted sounds like a lit of people every day but the numbers compared to the population of 66m are infinitesimal. Even more infinitesimal if one isn't in the high risk categories.

My mother and MIL are 83. Neither are regarded as high risk. Both are still having to go out for fresh food. Neither can get a delivery slot.

Let’s face it people don’t like not being told stuff and then Chris Whitty starts to tell people what they don’t want to hear and they don’t like it either! The issue is the government are weighing up all he issues and consequences of all the different measures in place. They need to minimise disruption to our lives as well as control the virus to keep death rates as low as possible. It’s really naive to think they can just say now we will be doing x then y then z. Until they reach a point where certain things have happened they can’t calculate all those things. What would be the point in telling us all the different possible options and combinations? And really it’s irrelevant right now anyway, we know this will end and when it’s appropriate then we will know how

@twinnywinny14

I guess I've just decided to be selfish.

I'm holding my hands up and admitting to that.

No one likes to say it, but unless you've sold your house to feed the homeless, or you've donated huge swathes of money to starving children in Africa, or you've made your own children suffer so complete strangers can have it easier, then I'm afraid most people are selfish to some degree. That's just a fact of life.

I've been locked down since two weeks before the schools closed because my child had a cough, and then the other one had a cough. I can't even count how many weeks that is now.

I followed advice at the start because I was being selfless. But now I feel my children are suffering. My mental health is suffering. And I'm sorry to say I care about my family much more than I do about anyone else's. I perceive the risk to my family of three (all healthy and under 30) to be so minuscule that if we want to go to the park and play football, or take a flask of tea and lie down on the grass, then that's exactly what we will be doing. I'll be going to see my partner, and I'll be taking the kids to see my mum. We all know the risks.

At last!

A few sensible posts ...

I'm sick and tired ( and quite depressed) of the many labour political broadcasts on here recently.

I watched yesterday's briefing , as I do everyday. I found it welcoming also that the army general was present as well and felt he gave an articulate and detailed message; particularly on the distribution of PPE .