"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

And if your mum dies and it's shown that it's most likely you gave her the infection, how would your mental health cope ?

I, like many others am massively struggling with the lockdown. We were in self isolation for 2 weeks before the lockdown startrd and I realised its been almost 2 months for us.

Some days, like this morning I wake up in such a panic, feeling trapped and wondering how the actual fuck this will ever end. I have two DDs, 8 and 4, both me and DH working from home and it's just all so shit.

I've started thinking about wartime, and how on earth people survived in hiding, trapped in tiny spaces for YEARS. Sometimes I can put it all in perspective and sometimes I just absolutely feel broken down by this. Like another poster up thread I am not scared of this virus at all. I am scared of what this situation is doing to us, to my children, to my mental health. I know we have to stay strong for the greater good but it's so HARD.

No idea what my post is about really, or what I am trying to say. Just a whirlwind of thoughts that are exhausting, and I guess I'm just scared of what this will do to our world. It's just all so shit.

I would think that as soon as they say 'reduced restrictions in use of parks' and 'restaurants can open but must maintain social distancing' it will be a bunfight. As there was when the local Maccas said it was closing - 10 deep at the counter and queues out the door.
I think they are trying to not loosen the rules because of idiots going too far.

@SnydeValley That’s interesting and honest. I guess each to their own, but I can’t understand how you followed the advice before but won’t now because you don’t want to, and are selfish (your words). You perceive the risk to your family to be low and sod if that puts anyone else’s family at risk? That’s the exact reason many won’t ignore the advice and it actually increases others anxiety because the more people out and about the more concern the have about getting it and passing it on to those in their family who may not be such a low risk as yours. This is tough for everyone, none more so than those with vulnerable loved ones or those dying. In comparison I feel my suffering is nothing. Just a different take on it I guess

snyde

I could empathise reading through your last post until what you said at the end.

Suppose we ALL did what you are intending to do? All 66 million of us?

That's such a selfish selfish attitude. We will end up in a stricter lockdown and that will be absolutely awful.

Not to mention many more people will end up dying.

And if your mum dies and it's shown that it's most likely you gave her the infection, how would your mental health cope ?

I think my mental health would cope exactly the same as if she died for any other reason are you insinuating I should feel guilt?

I wouldn't.

Logic being:

Firstly, she's a grown adult who can weigh up the statistical risk herself. She's 45 with no underlying conditions and is a healthy weight. And she's female. If she didn't want me to visit, I wouldn't do it.

Secondly, I believe we are all going to catch it anyway. So why would it really matter if I gave her it, or if it was the cashier at the local supermarket, or an Amazon delivery?

Of course I would be sad if she died. If she wanted to maintain lockdown and continue in isolation I would fully support her decision. But she doesn't. She wants to go back to work as a nursery teacher, and she wants to see her family. And quite rightly so since she is low risk.

Her nursery wasn't one that needed to be open to keyworker children... I don't really understand how on one hand it would have been completely acceptable for her to be at work, but on the other she can't make the decision to see two of her grandchildren who have been in self-isolation for 2 months because we could somehow kill her

I think everyone is being a bit grumpy! It's clear op is just echoing a lot of thoughts and having a 'sigh' moment.
I also know it won't happen, but would like government to say "we don't know" sometimes, or "it could look like this.' But everyone in politics is so terrified of having to explain themselves and go back on their words.

@ohthwroses The death rate as repirted sounds like a lit of people every day but the numbers compared to the population of 66m are infinitesimal. Even more infinitesimal if one isn't in the high risk categories.

I can see you dont understand exponential growth. It's the lockdown keeping daily numbers relatively small. Without it, they'd be 5,000, 10000, 50000 per day!

I'm sick and tired ( and quite depressed) of the many labour political broadcasts on here recently.

Sorry but I had to chime in again here as I seriously take issue with this - I'm not affiliated with any particular political parry and you have no idea what my political views are.

Suppose we ALL did what you are intending to do? All 66 million of us?

the more people out and about the more concern the have about getting it and passing it on to those in their family who may not be such a low risk as yours.

I'll reply to both at once since they're kinda the same point 😊

Well... let me try to untangle these thoughts in my head and try to put them across in a way that doesn't misconstrue what I'm trying to say.

I don't believe all 66 million WOULD do that. Because within that 66 million there will be many that are at high risk.

Let me turn this on it's head for a second and pretend that it was mostly killing healthy young children. So basically flip the statistics over.

Would I be breaking lockdown? I wouldn't even be contemplating it! I'd be holed up in my house with my door welded shut, and I'd be doing what many people are doing right now and disinfecting my shopping, not ordering things online. I wouldn't even take my daily exercise. I'd let my dog shit in the hall. I'd do all of that and more to keep myself and my kids safe. Even if it meant losing my job or not being able to pay my bills.

But... if my mum wanted to go and visit my 70 year old grandma... I would completely understand that. In fact, I'd want them to have as much normality as possible since they're not really the ones at risk from this. I wouldn't want them to be losing their jobs or their homes. I wouldn't want the whole economy to shut down.

So. I can completely understand why some people want this lockdown to go on for however long it takes to find a vaccine. If I was at risk, I'd want that too. But I'm not. There are a couple of people in my immediate family who are, and I want them to shield, but I know they won't do it for much longer because they've apparently lived their life and they don't care 🤷🏻‍♀️

Mumsnet is kinda a weird place for me because a lot of the opinions I see on here just aren't reflected in my day to day life. I mentioned to colleague the other day that I wished I had my car so I could go to Costco and he offered to take me. It was my birthday last week and I had to tell three relatives NOT to come over. My brother wanted to pop by with easter eggs for the kids and to see them. I feel like I know more people who aren't all that fussed about the virus than ARE, to be honest.

This virus is brand new. It was only named in January. It isn't 'the flu', it isn't SARS1, or H1N1. It's an unknown beast, relentlessly crawling across the world. It's already killed hundreds of thousands of people. Maybe even millions. Who knows but imagine what would have happened without the lockdowns and flatten the curve strategy

The only thing the scientists and doctors do know is that it behaves in unexpected ways. Everyday brings something new. Is it pneumonia or is it something else that's affecting the lungs and killing people. Is it killing people by affecting other organs as well, some think yes. Is mechanical ventilation the best way or maybe another treatment is better. Does someone have immunity to it after being infected or not. How is it spreading, just by bigger droplets or is it airborne as well.

If the best scientists in the world don't know yet then how can anyone else know exactly what to do. The virus didn't come with an instruction manual

We are in uncharted territory and so the advice government takes from the specialists might change, even day to day. The lockdown could be in waves of lockdowns. Lifting them slightly and then bringing in a stricter lockdown for a while and then lifting again and so on. To see what happens.

All we can do is keep watching and reading the news, put our trust in science and hope for some swift advance. Maybe in the mean time we could try to stop complaining a little bit and be thankful we live in the first world. But i think the truth is, there is no end in sight yet

The thing is, those who say they ste elderly and don't care if they get the virus are still going to need resources, someone is going to have to care for them, provide pain relief, sedation so they don't die terrified and consciously suffocating etc, so it's still a emotional, financial and physical burden if you like whether they care or not.

Frompcat

That wasn't directed at you my dear.

I read through the many posts, on what is a predominantly left wing site and it is blatantly obvious that there are a huge number spouting political left wing rhetoric.

That's what I read and that's what there is.

Nobody mentioned you. I certainly never.

@SnydeValley, all those reasons you give are valid. For you. For many of us, we feel the same. But you need to follow through your idea to the end, to the implications.
The implications of you doing what you want to do in a couple of weeks, are that you won't be the only people doing similar. You crack on and enjoy yourself, but rest assured it won't just carry on like before for the rest of us. The second wave, or peak, will look very likely, if people do as you do. The government will then tell us that we are back to square one, and the lockdown will be further extended. You might not care about that, "because we're all going to get it anyway". Yes, most of us might. And most of us will be ok. But that isn't the point, is it? The point is a long supression of this because of the capacity of the NHS. And they won't cope in the future regardless of having capacity today. They have capacity now, because the majority of people are not doing precisely what you say you will do. And you might not care about other people getting it, or your mum getting it from you or the guy from the supermarket, but the NHS do. Because they might not be able to treat your mum, and giving everyone every bit of required care is their priority, and they wouldn't be able to do that because they will be overwhelmed if we all did what you say you will do.

It is the basic premise behind all of this, keep ahead of the virus with bed capacity and ITU availability. If you want to jeopardise that for others in the future, go ahead, no one can stop you.

@SnydeValley I understand your logic to a degree. But you have to also remember the bigger picture in this, 4 or 5 million people are shielding so it’s still 60 million or so that could do as you do. And if they do (in fact if far less than that do) then the NHS will be overwhelmed and stretched. You clearly don’t care about who dies or gets COVID as long as yours don’t. In fact you said it wouldn’t make you feel bad any way. Your loved ones may not be at risk of covid but they are at risk of all the other things everyone is, accidents, stroke, heart attack, serious illness or injury of any kind and the treatment they need may not be available if the NHS has no capacity left. Many clinics and treatments are not available at the moment and if any of your loved ones needed access to those they won’t be able to get that all the time the NHS is dealing with COVID rates so high. So this does affect you even if it’s not COVID specifically related and your family are low risk to COVID it doesn’t mean you want this to spiral out of control. Although judging by your previous comments are you not bothered about any of that as long as you can do what you want?

The thing is that unfortunately it simply isn't sustainable to carry on in lockdown like this for that length of time.

We as a family have been in total lockdown for six weeks today. I was on the very early virus threads in January and saw this coming and prepped for it. I also pulled the DC out of school before the schools closed. We haven't left the house/garden at all apart from one brief visit to the pharmacy in the village to collect an essential prescription. We as a family are as compliant as any government could ever hope for and we are incredibly fortunate in that we live somewhere where our surroundings plus this glorious weather largely make it feel rather like the school summer holidays at the moment (although DH and I are working FT from home and the teenage DC are in online school all day). We all get on well and we are spending precious time together that we don't generally have.

However, the harsh reality is that if we hope to continue living in a near to "normal" way in the future, we simply have to get back to a functioning economy. We have to spend money and businesses have to operate again. Otherwise the impact of the coming recession/depression is going to be so great that the consequences of that will far outstrip the consequences of the virus. Many, many people will lose their jobs and their homes and their way of life. Particularly those who already have debt.

I don't think things will be quite the same for a very long time (if ever). I think those who are shielding will need to remain very restricted or else accept that they run significant risk. I think people in general will certainly travel less and will probably socialise in different ways with less "going out". I think social distancing in some form e.g. increased working from home, more remote meetings, fewer people permitted in supermarkets and shops, no large crowd events etc will be with us for a long time. I also think there will be more limited choice in shops for quite some time and that prices will rise. I think lots of smaller businesses will close anyway since they won't be able to cope with reduced custom and so there will be fewer people in work and non essential/luxury/frivolous purchasing will drop. Places like small theatres etc are likely to close since they will have both reduced custom and reduced grant funding. Clearly taxes will have to rise even though that is contrary to Conservative policy in general and public services/funding will have to be slashed.

But the government (whatever government that happens to be at the time) desperately need us to earn money and to spend to bring the country back to financial stability. It's a dilemma that is very difficult to deal with. They want people to stay at home so that the NHS can cope (although without exception my NHS consultant friends are significantly quieter than they generally are - even those in A&E), but at the same time they need people to spend their money to keep things going. The economy is fragile and rescuing it when we topple into deep recession is not easy. The usual means such as massive spending on things like infrastructure to create jobs will be difficult since we will have so much debt.

So the harsh reality is that it becomes a choice between some people unfortunately contracting the virus and dying and the economy being screwed for potentially many many years which will affect us and our children for a very long time. The reality is that this isn't actually a choice when you look at the numbers. Once we get past the peak, the answer is there. It just isn't a palatable thing to say.

The economy will recover. The projections, even for a very long lockdown, are seriously nowhere near the spike caused by the financial crisis of WW2.

You're right @HasaDigaEebowai, it isn't sustainable to carry on lockdown like this for a that length of time.

But those are your words, not the goverments. Their chief Science adviser has said that some restrictions of the lockdown will be in place for a long time.

Hence this thread and the OP's title. This lockdown won't continue, but some of the restrictions will.

Big difference.

Of course the economy will recover eventually. It always does.

But once the furlough and self employed assistance scheme close/change as they will have to eventually, businesses will topple quickly. So the longer this goes on the worse the recession is likely to be.

We need to comply now so that lockdown restrictions can be eased and businesses can start to reopen. Its crucial to the future of the country.

If the best scientists in the world don't know yet then how can anyone else know exactly what to do.

Nobody knows exactly, but some governments are being a lot clearer about their first steps out of lockdown and what it is they think ‘prolonged social distancing measures’ might actually look like. That’s not because the virus is better known in Ireland or Germany or France or Italy or Vietnam than it is here.

The Scottish government’s publishing its outline thinking today. I doubt it’s going to be a set plan about what and when, but it’ll still be a way of sharing some more of its advice and its thinking with the public.

The economy will recover. The projections, even for a very long lockdown, are seriously nowhere near the spike caused by the financial crisis of WW2.

9% of GDP is leisure related. If most those go bust, and that's not even considering other industries where social distancing doesn't work (a big one being travel), it's going to be a pretty big bump.

This is the bit I don't understand, surely even if entertainment establishments, pubs, arenas, restaurants etc are allowed people in, but with social distancing, their profits would be so badly impacted that their businesses wouldn't survive anyway.

Yes AnxiousElephant77, very few (if any) will be able to remain operational with those restrictions.

This is the bit I don't understand, surely even if entertainment establishments, pubs, arenas, restaurants etc are allowed people in, but with social distancing, their profits would be so badly impacted that their businesses wouldn't survive anyway.

Lots won't survive. The cost of things will increase - potentially significantly.

I do have a slightly vested interest as in supposed to get married on 27th December which looks increasingly unlikely given what was said yesterday. And although it's not ideal, I echo the sentiment of this thread, if I knew something, anything, it would make it easier to swallow.