Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

EyeWhisker I've worked with stats a lot myself (Before retiring I was in R&D, STEM PhD)

and I learned v early on that if the data doesn't agree with the theory

• that all countries behave the same under the same policies -

then either the theory or the data is wrong

Just as we can see there is a different risk for men and women
and may possibly be too for those of BAME origin vs white

.... observation of the available data is that different regions of the world, including within Europe have different death rates for the same strategy

Look at the curves of Sweden, Norway, Denmark Iceland
and compare them to
the UK, Italy, France, Spain, NL

The death curves in Scandinavia seem less severe than those of N&W Europe
This may be population density / geographic, genetic, culture, lifestyle, diet, VitD or whatever combination

Sweden's death rate is much worse than that of its Scandi neighbours who locked down,
but still comparable with the best of N&W Europe who locked down

The UK govt need to understand this before blithely assuming the UK will get the same results as Sweden if they follow Sweden's policies

Place mark

No it's shit as predicted. This should be legible

i.imgur.com/dmJdPlp.png

"U.K. head of armed forces to join virus briefing?!"

A friend works in ITU- he said that when the army took over PPE deliveries ( a few weeks ago) they had so much they didn't have anywhere to store it!

The FT analysis of expected 41,000 deaths. I have a question. It states that normally 24% of all deaths occur in care homes. We are in a pandemic, and they are saying that 11,000 of the 41,000 have occured in care homes, which is 27% - so pretty much in line with norms then?

(Not to say it is not a large and excess number, but at a purely statistical percentage level).

That's a very interesting and valid comment Baaahhh.

The medium strategy of relaxing lockdown sufficiently to keep cases within the capability of the health system is imo the best course:

acceptably low risk, providing it is step by step - ready to slam on the brakes if exponential growth restarts -
and based on scientific advice
Potentially up to 90% of the economy could resume eventually

The risk to a 40-year-old in the UK is small, because estimates (e.g. Imperial) are that only about 4% of the population have so far been infected
That risk would rise a lot if 70-80% are allowed to be infected - overwhelming the health sytem - instead of keeping the curve flattened

It's also not just about the current 0.2% risk of death, but also the far higher risk even now of weeks suffering from viral pneumonia and then months of recovery
There are some reports that there may be longterm fatigue and lung problems in some survivors, not just the elderly

Also, inconvenient as it may be for the 40 and younger brigade, there are about 17 million people classed as vulnerable to COVID, because of age or comorbidity

That is a hefty chunk of the population, even if not a very economically productive one
And they vote, of course
The current govt would be mindful of the consequences of very suddenly losing ½ million elderly voters who vote very heavily Conservative

The strategy of herd immunity would be especially risky for the UK,
because the govt do not seem to be organising a mass testing and contact tracing program after lockdown

• which would be the best way both to avoid exponential growth and to detect it early on if it happens.

That is interesting, Baaahhh
A spike in the death rate, but care homes at their usual % share of deaths in the population

In Scandinavia, they eat a LOT of fish, mostly oily fish, which supplies Vit D among many other healthy goodies

I had a short contract in Gothenburg some years ago:

• fish in rolls for breakfast, baked fish for lunch, smoked salmon for supper - by day 3 I was ready to run home screaming if they hadn't found me some non-fish options

A friend works in ITU- he said that when the army took over PPE deliveries ( a few weeks ago) they had so much they didn't have anywhere to store it!

Yes I hadn't realised, he described that and it makes perfect sense.

The overlay picture would be very informative, SHoots but unfortunately I cannot read it
(but I have a visual disability, so maybe others can do better)

I gave up smoking years ago after loads of attempts/ with enormous difficulty but have always continued to feel like a smoker. After seeing the Chinese data I thought it seemed strange smokers weren't dying at a much higher rate than non-smokers, and couldn't work out (other than via application of common sense about lung health) where claims about smokers being especially at risk came from. Now this article in the Guardian suggests it might be protective on basis of French data. Thoughts...?!

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

@Baaaahhhhh factors influencing care home deaths would be that flu is a relatively minor source of death (just a few % of total) - most people die from cardiac disease, etc., i.e. non-contagious. So a new more contagious disease which disproportionately affects the elderly compared to the young would push that up.

On the other hand, covid-19 is much worse than season influenza for killing younger people, so many more than usual of the extra deaths are of 60+ year olds, instead of those in care homes who are probably 80+. So not necessarily a surprise that we don't have half of covid-19 deaths in nursing homes.

In Scandinavia, they eat a LOT of fish
Do they not also eat fermented fish of some sort? And there is the German tradition of sauerkraut (of which I am a devotee) I think there is some link between fermented foods and lower overall inflammation?
I used to follow this blog
coolinginflammation.blogspot.com/
and he talks a lot about this kind of thing.
Caveats
1-I know there are also links between consumption of fermented food and bad health outcomes
2-DR. Art Ayers may well fit into the 'kook' category

That's a really good graph from Chris Giles

I'd read before that 2020 started off looking much lower for deaths than an average year, as e.g. flu strain wasn't as severe,
but that recent spike shows the crisis we are in

Where would we be without lockdown ?

@BigChocFrenzy you should be able to zoom in on this link:

i.imgur.com/dmJdPlp.png

I've added it to my spreadsheet, will update shortly.

Thank you, Shoots
I can just about read that

Another useful source to check back on weekly deaths is the

Mortality Monitor - Institute & Faculty of Actuaries

(An actuary is a person who found accountancy and underwriting too exciting...
but they are very thorough and reliable in their work)

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-monitor

@hopsalong I’ve seen various studies and meta studies into smoking and CV (vested interest 😳) and I think it suggest that smokers are less likely to contract the virus in the first place, not that the outcome if they get it is better. Maybe non smokers could replicate the effects of smoking without the risks- I’m constantly washing my hands, chewing gum and standing outside- all as a result of smoking (only half in jest)

I just can’t see an end to this or any light at the end.

@nauticant the gap between lockdown in Wuhan and their reported max deaths was 20 days - 23rd Jan to 12th Feb. The fact this was the gap to reported max deaths means the gap to actual max deaths was probably slightly shorter. This is very much in line with our own gap from 23rd Mar to 8 Apr, which is 16 days, but this is to actual day of death. Our reported day of max deaths was Apr 10, so 18 days - pretty close to the China figure, if we compare apples with apples. Either we are quibbling about 2 days (and arguably, schools and most workplaces were closed on the 20th as it was a Friday) or the suggestion is that it was not lockdown that caused the decrease in China's figures?

Dominic Raab, speaking in the HoC:

69 NHS workers have now died from COVID
(awaiting sex & race stats for these)

I just can’t see an end to this or any light at the end.

Genuine question - why? Other European countries are on a downward trend now and are starting to lift some lockdown measures. Obviously there will be another wave, we all know that, but at some point there will be:

a) a vaccine
b) an effective treatment
c) herd immunity

Thanks @CrunchyCarrot! I appreciate your work!
So we're worse than Italy