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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

968 replies

Barracker · 21/04/2020 16:55

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
152
BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2020 18:03

Actuarial table of expected & "excess" deaths, page 4 of

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2015%202020%20v01%202020-04-21.pdf

"For both genders, sexes , the highest ratios of excess to expected deaths are for the 75-84 and 85+ age bands,
with actual deaths for males in these age bands being just over twice the expected deaths.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6
CrunchyCarrot · 22/04/2020 18:25

So we're worse than Italy

I'm not sure that it's as simple as that. We haven't, as far as I'm aware, had doctors having to make heart-rending decisions because there aren't enough ventilators. But at the same time we seem to share with Spain the awful care home circumstances. We clearly have had a lot more Covid-19 related deaths than the current official figures show. I hope eventually all the other deaths will be added in.

nauticant · 22/04/2020 18:32

BigChocFrenzy, you would have been interested in the PM programme on Radio 4 earlier. It was about how delaying treatment until there are breathing difficulties is why many Coronavirus patients are treated too late. Apparently blood oxygen call fall significantly without causing breathing difficulties and a patient's condition can deteriorate badly before breathing difficulties are detected, and thus recovery is less certain. This means that a key part of treatment is to use a oximeter to monitor blood oxygen and to use that to detect when significant medical intervention is needed without waiting for the patient to experience breathing difficulties.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2020 18:34

The UK is on the Italy curve for deaths, but still too early to say whether "worse" or "better"

"We haven't, as far as I'm aware, had doctors having to make heart-rending decisions"

The problem with considering whether a health service has been overwhelmed as a criteria,
is:

the UK strategy to avoid this seems to be by setting severe criteria for admission,
with some MNers being told to wait until they turn blue

whereas
Italy tried to bring everyone to hospital who would normally be admitted for such severe symptoms

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2020 18:42

That would have been interesting indeed, Nauticant

With the "Coronataxis" in Germany, the health teams monitor blood O2 regularly (among several other tests) and whip the patient into hospital if it falls too low

Doctors have been explaining on TV and in articles that this is necessary because of the sudden deterioration that can happen, without the person realising
but that caught early this is very treatable with O2 and the prognosis is excellent

It is quite reassuring.

NewAccountForCorona · 22/04/2020 18:46

That's interesting, nauticant. It's particularly interesting that the media keep announcing things that we've raised on this thread days or weeks ago.

I'm obviously not saying they are watching mumsnet, but I'm baffled by how slow the media appears to be at picking things up that have been obvious to many on here for ages. Examples are the lag in deaths announced, the underestimate of deaths outside hospital, the difference in the way patients are being treated in Germany, for example, and now the suggestion that people should be brought to hospital earlier, and monitored, which has been said on here many times over the last at least three threads Hmm

It's been obvious for at least three weeks that ventilating patients is not very successful because of the difficulty (impossibility in many cases) of un-ventilating them. Early treatment with oxygen, and if necessary with antibiotics for secondary bacterial infection is something people on the front line have been talking about since mid-March.

Sunshinegirl82 · 22/04/2020 18:48

I’ve just bought an oximeter to keep at home just in case. We are not high risk but I get the impression low oxygen readings would help if you ended up having to push for a referral into hospital. Our GP surgery is generally very good at referring in but obviously it is not them making the decisions at the moment.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2020 18:55

AGE and risk of catching it - separate from risk of surviving it:

I don't know if the UK stats show the same effect as this for cases ??
since the low testing would skew cases towards the most serious cases and hence elderly

However, these are 2 charts from RKI (Germany) showing cases wrt age & sex,
then wrt age normalised wrt the numbers of that age group in the population

Important because of course there are fewer people aged 80+ in the population, especially men

In Germany, at least, an individual person aged 80+ is more likely to get infected than someone young or middle-aged,
despite not going to work, commuting, or being such active party animals

This is age-related, due to lower immunity etc,
since (presumably) the lower social activity of age 60-79 reduces their indiividual risk to slightly below that of younger people

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6
Coquohvan · 22/04/2020 19:06

@nauticant that’s possibly why Boris Johnston was moved into Hospital then into icu - oxygen levels.

nauticant · 22/04/2020 19:07

The interview I mentioned above about silent hypoxia was with with Richard Levitan and actually relates to a New York Times article already linked to by SummerSazz yesterday:

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

Was the mad scramble for ventilators a wild goose chase? At some point I will be less than a day behind everyone else on this thread.

nauticant · 22/04/2020 19:09

That's apparently the case Coquohvan. As stated in the article:

Detection of hypoxia, early treatment and close monitoring apparently also worked for Boris Johnson, the British prime minister.

LunariaAlba · 22/04/2020 19:15

Sunshinegirl82 which oximeter did you get and where from if I may ask?

Coquohvan · 22/04/2020 19:15

The linked article is not available, unless account opened.
I’m quite interested in how NY is coping through this also.
Apparantely Trump wasnt happy Cuomo wanted thousands of ventilators, Cuomo retorted it was the model the White House issued that he would require them.

SummerSazz · 22/04/2020 19:21

Thanks @nauticant and yes v interesting and also a video was posted the other day re symptoms of hypoxia saying the same thing. I thought it was overlooked on this thread as it is about potential treatment rather than stats per se Blush.

My dad died with a rare respiratory problem 3.5 years ago and as he was dying the doctor said we would see him have the classic signs of hypoxia as he passed (we'd seen Everest so knew a little of what to expect). So a bit of a fascination for me as oximeters (I now have one!) and oxygen treatments were part of our lives for many years. Btw he was never ever on a ventilator. I'll track down the video if anyone is interested although it fits firmly into the 'one doctors' speculation rather than peer reviewed box.

SummerSazz · 22/04/2020 19:22

@Coquohvan it works for me. Happy to c&p

Sunshinegirl82 · 22/04/2020 19:22

@LunariaAlba

I got one from Argos. We have one at our local Sainsbury’s so I paid for it online and picked it up when I did the weekly shop.

NewAccountForCorona · 22/04/2020 19:23

Yes, I think the mad scramble for ventilators was probably (with the benefit of hindsight) unnecessary. But at the time the only treatment was ventilation, so without the benefit of hindsight it was essential, if that makes sense.

Oxygen is now the issue; it doesn't seem to be making the papers much (is anything Hmm) but there have been a number of issues with oxygen supply.

Getting the use of ventilators down will have the added bonus of freeing up anaesthetists, which is important if any non-Covid surgery is to restart.

Coquohvan, you can open a NYTimes account for free - just keep ignore the payment options and register with email address and password.

Coquohvan · 22/04/2020 19:23

@Summersazz yes please.

Coquohvan · 22/04/2020 19:27

@NewAccountForCorona
Thank you got in now

Sunshinegirl82 · 22/04/2020 19:29

I’m not sure how interesting this is it it looks as though the virus was circulating in the community in the US by mid January, much earlier than previously thought.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/coronavirus-killing-americans-weeks-earlier-than-thought

SummerSazz · 22/04/2020 19:30

Opinion
The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients
This is what I learned during 10 days of treating Covid pneumonia at Bellevue Hospital.
By Richard Levitan
Dr. Levitan is an emergency doctor.
April 20, 2020

I have been practicing emergency medicine for 30 years. In 1994 I invented an imaging system for teaching intubation, the procedure of inserting breathing tubes. This led me to perform research into this procedure, and subsequently teach airway procedure courses to physicians worldwide for the last two decades.
So at the end of March, as a crush of Covid-19 patients began overwhelming hospitals in New York City, I volunteered to spend 10 days at Bellevue, helping at the hospital where I trained. Over those days, I realized that we are not detecting the deadly pneumonia the virus causes early enough and that we could be doing more to keep patients off ventilators — and alive.
On the long drive to New York from my home in New Hampshire, I called my friend Nick Caputo, an emergency physician in the Bronx, who was already in the thick of it. I wanted to know what I was facing, how to stay safe and about his insights into airway management with this disease. “Rich,” he said, “it’s like nothing I’ve ever seen before.”
He was right. Pneumonia caused by the coronavirus has had a stunning impact on the city’s hospital system. Normally an E.R. has a mix of patients with conditions ranging from the serious, such as heart attacks, strokes and traumatic injuries, to the nonlife-threatening, such as minor lacerations, intoxication, orthopedic injuries and migraine headaches.

During my recent time at Bellevue, though, almost all the E.R. patients had Covid pneumonia. Within the first hour of my first shift I inserted breathing tubes into two patients.

Even patients without respiratory complaints had Covid pneumonia. The patient stabbed in the shoulder, whom we X-rayed because we worried he had a collapsed lung, actually had Covid pneumonia. In patients on whom we did CT scans because they were injured in falls, we coincidentally found Covid pneumonia. Elderly patients who had passed out for unknown reasons and a number of diabetic patients were found to have it.

And here is what really surprised us: These patients did not report any sensation of breathing problems, even though their chest X-rays showed diffuse pneumonia and their oxygen was below normal. How could this be?
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We are just beginning to recognize that Covid pneumonia initially causes a form of oxygen deprivation we call “silent hypoxia” — “silent” because of its insidious, hard-to-detect nature.
Pneumonia is an infection of the lungs in which the air sacs fill with fluid or pus. Normally, patients develop chest discomfort, pain with breathing and other breathing problems. But when Covid pneumonia first strikes, patients don’t feel short of breath, even as their oxygen levels fall. And by the time they do, they have alarmingly low oxygen levels and moderate-to-severe pneumonia (as seen on chest X-rays). Normal oxygen saturation for most persons at sea level is 94 percent to 100 percent; Covid pneumonia patients I saw had oxygen saturations as low as 50 percent.

To my amazement, most patients I saw said they had been sick for a week or so with fever, cough, upset stomach and fatigue, but they only became short of breath the day they came to the hospital. Their pneumonia had clearly been going on for days, but by the time they felt they had to go to the hospital, they were often already in critical condition.
In emergency departments we insert breathing tubes in critically ill patients for a variety of reasons. In my 30 years of practice, however, most patients requiring emergency intubation are in shock, have altered mental status or are grunting to breathe. Patients requiring intubation because of acute hypoxia are often unconscious or using every muscle they can to take a breath. They are in extreme duress. Covid pneumonia cases are very different.
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Continue reading the main story

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A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage — seemingly incompatible with life — but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors. Although breathing fast, they had relatively minimal apparent distress, despite dangerously low oxygen levels and terrible pneumonia on chest X-rays.
We are only just beginning to understand why this is so. The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.
Share Your Stories From the Front Lines^ We want to hear from doctors, nurses and health care workers around the world.d._
Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it. This silent hypoxia, and the patient’s physiological response to it, causes even more inflammation and more air sacs to collapse, and the pneumonia worsens until oxygen levels plummet. In effect, patients are injuring their own lungs by breathing harder and harder. Twenty percentt_ of Covid pneumonia patients then go on to a second and deadlier phase of lung injury. Fluid builds up and the lungs become stiff, carbon dioxide rises, and patients develop acute respiratory failure.

By the time patients have noticeable trouble breathing and present to the hospital with dangerously low oxygen levels, many will ultimately require a ventilator.
Silent hypoxia progressing rapidly to respiratory failure explains cases of Covid-19 patients dying suddenly after not feeling short of breath. (It appears that most Covid-19 patients experience relatively mild symptoms and get over the illness in a week or two without treatment.)
A major reason this pandemic is straining our health system is the alarming severity of lung injury patients have when they arrive in emergency rooms. Covid-19 overwhelmingly kills through the lungs. And because so many patients are not going to the hospital until their pneumonia is already well advanced, many wind up on ventilators, causing shortages of the machines. And once on ventilators, many die.
Avoiding the use of a ventilator is a huge win for both patient and the health care system. The resources needed for patients on ventilators are staggering. Vented patients require multiple sedatives so that they don’t buck the vent or accidentally remove their breathing tubes; they need intravenous and arterial lines, IV medicines and IV pumps. In addition to a tube in the trachea, they have tubes in their stomach and bladder. Teams of people are required to move each patient, turning them on their stomach and then their back, twice a day to improve lung function.
There is a way we could identify more patients who have Covid pneumonia sooner and treat them more effectively — and it would not require waiting for a coronavirus test at a hospital or doctor’s office. It requires detecting silent hypoxia early through a common medical device that can be purchased without a prescription at most pharmacies: a pulse oximeter.
Pulse oximetry is no more complicated than using a thermometer. These small devices turn on with one button and are placed on a fingertip. In a few seconds, two numbers are displayed: oxygen saturation and pulse rate. Pulse oximeters are extremely reliable in detecting oxygenation problems and elevated heart rates.
Pulse oximeters helped save the lives of two emergency physicians I know, alerting them early on to the need for treatment. When they noticed their oxygen levels declining, both went to the hospital and recovered (though one waited longer and required more treatment). Detection of hypoxia, early treatment and close monitoringg_ apparently also worked for Boris Johnson, the British prime minister.
Widespread pulse oximetry screening for Covid pneumonia — whether people check themselves on home devices or go to clinics or doctors’ offices — could provide an early warning system for the kinds of breathing problems associated with Covid pneumon

LunariaAlba · 22/04/2020 19:30

Sunshinegirl82 thank you. As with thermometers there are non available in my area.

SummerSazz · 22/04/2020 19:33

As I said, maybe rather too unsubstantiated for here but interesting for those who do think early oxygen intervention may be key

m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rzu1AJRZJEI&feature=youtu.be

Coquohvan · 22/04/2020 19:35

@SummerSazz
Thank you. This para is very interesting

To my amazement, most patients I saw said they had been sick for a week or so with fever, cough, upset stomach and fatigue, but they only became short of breath the day they came to the hospital. Their pneumonia had clearly been going on for days, but by the time they felt they had to go to the hospital, they were often already in critical condition.

SummerSazz · 22/04/2020 19:35

@LunariaAlba there are lots on amazon - I got mine for under £20 few weeks ago and they are now a lot more. But are available including for delivery tomorrow if you want to/ can splash the cash!

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