Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

French news is reporting that the R0 in Germany has risen to 1 again after the end of lockdown, up from 0,7. But they’ve not linked any sources for it. BigChoc is that being reported in Germany too?
Today is the debate on ending lockdown in French parliament so I’m wondering how politically motivated that piece of reporting is.

BBC are reporting it as well

That's interesting about Germany, Jennie Harries answered a question about Germany's success at the briefing a couple of weeks ago. One of the journo's asked about why couldn't we be more like Germany, and she said that Germany was starting to see a rise in cases, and they weren't out of the woods yet - that numbers might well rise higher in the coming weeks. A slight rise was shown on the graphs yesterday.

this is the German story
A cautionary one for Britain.
today.rtl.lu/news/world/a/1508888.html

QUOTE
First signs that transmission of the novel coronavirus has again picked up were visible in German official data, just as the country attempts a cautious easing of its lockdown measures.

The reproduction or infection rate under close watch by health authorities mounted again to around 1.0, meaning each infected person passes the virus on to one other, figures from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for disease control showed late Tuesday.

Ministers and virologists have hammered home the importance of squeezing the number below 1.0.

And the country has seen days of intense media and political debate after Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Germany's federal states against loosening their lockdowns too quickly.

Since mid-April, the infection rate had sunk as low as 0.7 before inching back up again.
END QUOTE

Much more, in English, in the link.

I think the journalist meant the news came out late Monday.

In Germany,

R0 was 0.7 2-3 weeks ago,
then states and police seemed to relax measures within the allowed scope they had for lockdown

So it went up to 0.9,
which is where it was when Merkel announced relaxation of lockdown,
more shops allowed to open

(Personally, I was concerned at relaxation with 0.9 already and wanted 0.7, but with such empty hospitals, low deaths and GDP down the toilet ....)

Today R0 is 1.0
but R0 is very much a theoretical calculation with a significant margin, it's actually R= 1.0 (95% confidence interval: 0.8-1.1)

Until deaths & cases start to rise again, politicians and business will assume it is not above 1.0

So what is mentioned in the news are politicians calling for more relaxation, nothing about 1.0
All are talking about the economy, jobs, many small businesses & restaurants going under if Germany doesn't speed up the relaxation

Merkel has been calling all along for more caution from the 16 states,
but people and politicians are looking at cases and deaths, which are still going down

"Harries ..... said that Germany was starting to see a rise in cases,"

I don't know where she got that from, as new cases & deaths still trending to fall
This statement may be PHE trying to resist pressure to relax lockdown in the UK ?

New cases been under 2,000 for several days and even went under 1,000 yesterday.

Deaths did rise yesterday, but they normally do Mon+Tue after the weekend and it was 150 after Sunday's 99
So v low level atm

Personally I would always err on the side of caution with this of exponential growth
So I hope Merkel continues to resist all the political and business pressure to relax further
(admittedly difficult as self-employed and small businesses are key constituencies for a conservative party)
and keeps things as they are, ready to ramp down lockdown again if we actually do see cases rising

However, unless the current downward case and death trend reverses for a week say, the pressure on her is likely to increase
She has big brass ovaries though and is a scientist.

The "mortality rate rising" is misleading, because the headline % has been rising for several weeks now,
well before relaxation
People are still dying from cases 4 weeks ago

but actual new cases and deaths are still falling

imo, politicians and media in some countries are trying to reduce the public pressure in their own countries to relax measures

However, we can't all stay in lockdown for 2 years
and Germany is probably the best guinea pig to try this, with the best resources to manage a spike if it happens

What happens this week will be critical
Merkel won't ramp up lockdown unless deaths & cases actually rise

ONS data looks like the largest rise again.

21,284 they also say maybe a slight undercount as it included Good Friday.

Germany shielded their vulnerable at the end of January, far earlier than other European countries. This may have had an influence on the mortality rates a peak infection. Their vulnerable group are still vulnerable so a second wave in Germany may well result in far more deaths. It really depends on how long the vulnerable group tolerate shielding. With so many different models being used the WHO will have plenty to study to come up with a master plan going forward.

*ONS data looks like the largest rise again.

21,284 they also say maybe a slight undercount as it included Good Friday.*

Is that the latest data? I think the dataset including Good Friday was released last week. Today's will be to April 17th and include Easter Monday I think.

Is that the latest data? I think the dataset including Good Friday was released last week. Today's will be to April 17th and include Easter Monday I think.

Its what they announced on sky 5 minutes ago. Maybe that's what he meant Easter Monday.

Thanks! They've just updated the ONS website

Ploughing through it, lots of information about registration dates and lags, I think I need another coffee to get my head around it all!!!

@Sunshinegirl82 that was a MAXimum of 2 years, average 6 months.

According to the pharmaceutical companies for other virus it is around this, hence regular boosters for 6 monthly for equine flu, yearly for dogs etc, but this is probably due to mutation rates too.

hospital deaths (by DoD, E&W only)
To 10/4 8469
To 17/4 7487

Care homes
5913
6952

These are deaths registered by EoW+8 days in both cases

By EoW +14 to 10/4
8944 hospital (+5.6%)
6481 care home (+9.6%)

Presumably with the bank holidays on 10/4 and 13/4 there will be a slightly smaller rise next week in the extras added in.

So as expected the peak death date was 8 April for hospital deaths based on a lockdown on 23 March and earlier distancing measures but for care home deaths we don't know when the peak was but possibly quite recently as the figures were still rising to 17 April and may not even have peaked in that week.

Thus the record deaths are bad but they reflect the delayed spread of covid-19 to care homes rather than anything fundamentally wrong with the lockdown (other than it taking place 2 weeks late)

"It really depends on how long the vulnerable group tolerate shielding."

That's mainly just in care homes:
The govt move out everyone infected, or discharged infected from hospital, into paid hotels
with staff in PPE
Of course, infection still spreads from staff without symptoms

There was also early organisation - which worked - to support the most vulnerable / elderly at home to get groceries delivered etc

However, from the start, the majority of the elderly have been choosing to go outside for exercise and to talk at a distance,
just like in the UK.

(Where I live by the Rhine, the rows of the elderly taking their daily walk,
or sitting in the sun on benches has continued as normal throughout - except that it's now one person or couple per bench)

Do we have plots of the ONS care home deaths ?

@whatnext2

I would have thought any immunity at all in the community will help although obviously it will be insufficient on its own.

I know the Oxford vaccine is anticipated to produce a stronger and (hopefully) longer lasting immune response than that stimulated by catching the virus. Positive reports on that project today so let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Care deaths as a % of total deaths looking within the spread of other European countries,

but I haven't yet seen the time at which care home deaths peaked in those other countries
< hunting >

The spread of infection to care homes probably comes a bit later, but the deaths tehre presumably come within fewer days
So peak 7-10 days later ?

So it does seem that the estimate of 90% of deaths occurring in hospitals is, as expected, completely wrong.

I'm following Germany (thanks BigChoc) and Sweden - who have just overtaken Ireland in deaths per million, and whose figures appear to be all over the place. Does anyone know if they include deaths outside hospital?

Sorry that should be EoW +15 in my previous post, not +14.

I guess the care homes don't have effective distancing so initially the source is from the community, visitors etc and then it spreads internally

With around 13,000 excess care home deaths to 17/4 and by now probably 20k+, or 5% of the care home population, you'd expect some to be going out of business, especially in London

NewAccount Sweden does not seem to include care home deaths
(Germany does)

Sweden Dashboard:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Statistics have just become available from Sweden's equivalent of ONS
with age, comorbities, regions etc

Translated links:

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=sv&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.socialstyrelsen.se%2Fstatistik-och-data%2Fstatistik%2Fstatistik-over-antal-avlidna-i-covid-19%2F

https://translate.google.de/translate?um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&client=tw-ob&sl=sv&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.socialstyrelsen.se%2Fstatistik-och-data%2Fstatistik%2Fstatistik-over-antal-avlidna-i-covid-19%2F

You may need to use translate directly on the Swedish Statistic links:

https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/statistik-och-data/statistik/statistik-over-antal-avlidna-i-covid-19/

www.socialstyrelsen.se/globalassets/sharepoint-dokument/dokument-webb/statistik/statistik-covid19-avlidna-20200427_3.xlsx

@NewAccountForCorona week 11 deaths (pre-covid) around 10,000. Week 16 (DoD) 18,658 so far but likely 20k.
Norma hospital deaths 4500, care home 2500, home 2400. Now home deaths 4000ish, care home 7500ish, hospital 8000ish

Hence hospital deaths around 35% of the total.

Understand that the NHS death stats are OVER reported whereas all other locations underreported, so you cannot merely divide daily death stats by 35%.

I am trying to find this information for France for you @BigChocFrenzy but i am a lurker on this thread really so not sure if i can interpret correctly. ( and translate correctly) i can give you links to the info but there is a lot.