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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

968 replies

Barracker · 21/04/2020 16:55

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
152
ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 21/04/2020 18:16

Press conference slides for today
www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-21-april-2020

FATEdestiny · 21/04/2020 18:18

Todays ONS deaths "hit 20 year high"

Why 20 years?
What happened 20 years ago?

SummerSazz · 21/04/2020 18:19

I know someone mentioned a symptoms/treatment thread but I've not seen it so I'll put this here. Another article after the video on the last thread referencing hypoxia and early oxygen treatment - patients who get to the point of not being able to breathe are almost past treatment or it's at least far less effective Sad. Having an oximeter can really help track symptoms by the look of it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html?smid=fb-share

cathyandclare · 21/04/2020 18:21

There was a bad flu epidemic in the 1999/2000 Winter.

news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/6/newsid_2477000/2477943.stm

MonkeyToesOfDoom · 21/04/2020 18:21

Ever since the briefing s began, I took issue with how they reported the figures. Puts me in an awful spot to feel glad the ONS is on the ball but devastated at the figures.

NeurotrashWarrior · 21/04/2020 18:23

Thank you for the new thread.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 21/04/2020 18:33

The ONS made changes to the way deaths were recorded in 2001 which may also affect the comparability with years before that

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/userguidetomortalitystatisticsjuly2017#background-and-history-of-mortality-data

LittleFoxKit · 21/04/2020 18:36

What we need is the government to pull their heads out the arses and put in place proactive response and interventions.

This article was shared by a acquaintance who works in medical research (after deciding to retire from active medical practice) and is currently a leading researcher on containment practice (theyve done loads of interviews on tv and radio recently on the response to covid).

I personally when reading the article really felt it highlighted the responses in countries which have had a very limited impact of Covid and therefore quickly got infection and death rates down, compared to countries like Italy, the UK and USA which have had very limited interventions.

www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 21/04/2020 18:36

Pretty sure that the current death figures would be an all time record outside of WW2 or something

borntobequiet · 21/04/2020 18:40

Thanks for these threads.

OrangeBlossomsinthesun · 21/04/2020 18:47

watching with interest

GlassOfProsecco · 21/04/2020 18:49

Thanks for continuing the thread,Barracker - I find these threads interesting & informative.

AnyFucker · 21/04/2020 18:51

.

NewAccountForCorona · 21/04/2020 18:53

Just placemarking.

LarryGrylls - you answered a question for me on the last thread, so I wanted to say thanks. You sent me down a virology stats rabbit hole which was very interesting.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 19:00

Different regions within a country will often have different timing, gradients etc
and also may have some mass public events on various dates, which will be superspreading occasions

We can understand this for Wales, Scotland and NI compared to England,
but it also applies to the English regions

London has greater international connectivity, started its cases earlier than the rest of the UK, had a higher gradient, was compliant in lockdown, had an earlier peak

The UK sums together all these different regional curves, which is another reason the UK curve has a lot of noise and blips.

We see differences between the Italian regions too
and certainly between the states in the USA, which are somewhat comparable epidemiologically to a continent with countrie

SophocIestheFox · 21/04/2020 19:05

Thanks for the new thread. What I like about this most is that without the analysis by, for example shoots, I’d just be looking at that figure being higher today than it has been for days, and despairing.

Someone earlier mentioned why MERS petered out and this one doesn’t - MERS didn’t really peter out, as there is still an unquantified disease reservoir circulating about in camels, and people still do get it in places like Saudi. It just doesn’t spread as well human to human as covid 19 (it likely went bat>camel>human), and the outbreaks were better controlled at earlier stages (eg in South Korea which refined its pandemic response during a MERS outbreak in 2015).

HostessTrolley · 21/04/2020 19:11

Thank you @Barracker 😎

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 19:12

In Germany, the first cautious relaxation this week and

  • as part of the measures to replace full lockdown -

we are requested to wear mask in shops
or other occasions where close proximity may occur
Home-made masks are acceptable, even a scarf if you have nothing else

In practice, a shop is as likely to let you in bare-faced, as bare-arsed

I think in 1 state and a couple of town, which were COVID epicentres, mask-wearing is compulsory outside all the time

Madhairday · 21/04/2020 19:13

Thanks for the thread.

Keepgoing88 · 21/04/2020 19:21

Great thread

GlassOfProsecco · 21/04/2020 19:23

If anyone has comparison curves for Scotland, England, Wales & N Ireland, I'd love to see them.

I can't work out if we have peaked or plateaud yet.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 19:23

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

Weekend effect clear in today’s @DHSCgovuk update,
showing the challenge in determining whether UK daily deaths are now trending down.

Sun & Mon saw huge dip, but today is above last Tues (possibly due to Easter weekend?)

One thing clear:
downslope much more gentle than upslope

This is why the data series by date of death, not date of reporting (both the @ONS & NHS England series) are more useful,
though both come with substantial time lags.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6
QuentinWinters · 21/04/2020 19:23
Brew
Derbygerbil · 21/04/2020 19:26

Pretty sure that the excess death figures would be an all time record outside of WW2 or something

I don’t believe any week or WW2 saw more than the 8,000 war-related deaths (ie the number of excess deaths reported by ONS today)

itsgettingweird · 21/04/2020 19:27

Thought the last thread had gone quiet. Took me a while to realise it was full 🤦‍♀️

Thanks again Barraker for these threads and everyone for their fantastic factual links and explanations.