Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

major league football was called off on March 13th, other sporting events and large gatherings were being called off too. Impossible to say how much impact that had compared to public transport use but must have been significant if you look at the impact of Cheltenham.

I don’t know if they have already been mentioned but the google mobility reports give graphs on changes in movements in areas over time.

www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-11_GB_Mobility_Report_en.pdf
Forgot the link

My point about transport usage wasn't just that numbers on public transport resulted in fewer infections, but that it all forms of transport fell drastically before lockdown or school closures. That might suggest that people were making significant changes to their behaviour prior to lockdown - wfh more, socialising less. If these changes can be maintained coming out of lockdown then along with other measures, such as contact tracing, it may be possible to prevent a return to exponential growth, whilst partially restarting the economy.

Placemarking

I was using transport in London as a measure of other behaviours too in that school numbers were dropping and the switch to wfh happened before lockdown.

Guardian just flashed up 759 more deaths today?

@BigChocFrenzy I wonder if it's to do with the demographics of Scandi countries?

We have some evidence that BAME people seem to have a higher death rate than the general population, and in the Scandi countries the number of BAME people is lower, proportionally, compared to the UK.There's probably some quite different ethnicities represented in Scandi countries as well, compared to the UK.

There's some speculation about vitamin D, as well- do Scandi people suplement this regularly?

Just some ideas. It might be lifestyle related too.

Daily numbers tweet

do Scandi people suplement this regularly?

There was a table showing they do somehow, possibly also diet related. I don't know if it's added to more foods? I know in northern France the drs regularly give out and check vit d in the autumn as a matter of course.

Reallybadidea Yes, I agree that there must have been some significant behavioural changes in the week before lockdown, following Boris's announcement on the 16th. In particular, lots more working from home. Amongst my friends, we also started avoiding cafes, gyms etc although I realise others didn't. But then of course these places were shut on the 20th, ahead of lockdown. While there was a lot of complaints about National Parks being busy on Mothers Day, with all restaurants, pubs, leisure centres etc shut, there must have been some reduction in the transmission rate before official lockdown was announced.

Does anyone know the breakdown of figures for Sweden? I'd be interested to see how Malmo compares with the rest of the country, with a high ethnic minority/immigrant population and probably lower living standards.

759, so still in plateau/slow fall - although will await the breakdown of the timings of death reports and the excellent graphs, charts from the experts on this thread.

The FT estimations have been referred to, I thought these tweets explained it beautifully.

twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1252841436317315072?s=21

following even though I'm not smart enough lol

That thread is great yummy, thanks.

What I thought was particularly interesting was hidden in the chain of replies:

This is not just a UK phenomenon. It is happening in many many countries.

Will the same be done for other countries too? Would be interesting to see how accurate reporting is in other countries in comparison.

Yes - that work is in train.

One thing that makes the UK easier is that the
@ONS data is very good and, although lagged, is more up to date than many other countries

Sorry that's not clear- these are quotes from the twitter stream. With the bits in bold from Chris Giles:

This is not just a UK phenomenon. It is happening in many many countries.

Will the same be done for other countries too? Would be interesting to see how accurate reporting is in other countries in comparison.

Yes - that work is in train.

One thing that makes the UK easier is that the
@ONS data is very good and, although lagged, is more up to date than many other countries

sigh

Re behaviour changing and reduced travel in London before lockdown - I live in a London borough and my eldest child's school was closed to all but years but 7, 11 and 13 due to staff shortage several days before schools officially closed. Other schools in the chain were also partially closed and I know of other local schools that were shut or only partially open.
I work in a primary school and at the start of that last week in my class almost a third of children were off and the last few days less than half the children attended. It was similar n other classes.
This may well have had an impact on an earlier peak in London if the same was happening across all boroughs, as well as people working from home where possible and so on.

This article comparing the impact on where has socially distanced v full lockdown is interesting.

He makes the valid point that scientists are learning about this as they go, and that places with social distancing but not full lockdown are not obviously dating worse. Of course, the analysis suffers from the lag in deaths - so a lot of deaths are from those infected before the lockdown was implemented, but even so, worth investigating.

www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

Not London, but close by. Our school had 60% attendance from when advice to self isolate if you have a cough or temp came out. There was about 2 weeks like this. Other schools closed due to lack of staff after thd shielding advice combined with self isolating. This must have helped with slowing things down

@puffinandkoala this might answer your question about Malmö www.svt.se/datajournalistik/the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/
(Malmö is in Skåne if you didn't know)

Re Germanys COVID deaths.
I’m sure I read in one of the first corona posts way back that Germany were reporting deaths that had underlying conditions, the condition was noted as cause of death, not cv as a cause of death although they person tested positive for CV.
Anyone else remember reading this?

It wasn't true.

@Al1Langdownthecleghole

"The Times has been publishing deaths by hospital and outside of the metropolitan hotspots of London, Birmingham & Manchester, it appears that there is a bit of an East / West split. I’m more familiar with the East of England region, but was struck that Stevenage appears to have had half the deaths of Harlow despite relatively similar demographics. Bradford, Milton Keynes and Swindon are Lower still."

I expect that things will be lower away from major cities. Harlow is more Epping/outer London than Stevenage possibly. Seems to be worst area in region. They are bordering but Harlow is hard hit and Stevenage not. See attached graph (if you can, not sure if Mumsnet's dodgy image facility will be legible)