Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

In Sweden, only 1.2 % of deaths are in the under 50 group, with 94% in the 70+ group

Thanks, Humphrie I'm really looking for graphs and summary tables, if available
but links to the raw data tables would be good too

www.santepubliquefrance.fr/content/download/247350/document_file/COVID19_PE_20200423.pdf

Page 7 i think gives and idea of cases in care homes.

Many thanks, Humphrie !

BigChoc, in Ireland they are following the hospital and care homes separately - the continued rise in cases is because they have begun systematically testing every care home resident and worker.

It is hard to see whether deaths in care homes have peaked, as many care home residents are now being moved to hospital for treatment, so will be put down as hospital deaths if they die there.

There is an interesting analysis of the first 900 or so deaths in Ireland here: www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/#breakdown-of-the-903-lab-confirmed-deaths

It seems that the median/mean age of death were 83 and 81 respectively, and that of those admitted to ICU so far 15.7% have died. That seems pretty positive compared to international figures, but it will probably rise as 41% of those counted are still in ICU).

Thanks for the Swedish links; if they don't include care home deaths their numbers are looking increasingly bad - I wonder will they at any stage implement any sort of lockdown - or are they trusting the population to self-enforce?

From Chris Giles:

The ONS numbers are as bad - in fact worse - that I had expected. This level of excess deaths in England & Wales since the coronavirus outbreak started is 27,015.

Data is for registrations of deaths on average happening by April 13, when the declared hospital deaths was 11,407.

The ONS chart shows this is no flu and much more prevalent than the hospital death figures suggest. My cautious estimate for the deaths to date will now have to rise later today.

The care home deaths are particlarly bad.

There were 7,316 registrations in week ending 17 April, compared with a normal number of about 2,400. That is for one week.

It really is time to look at excess all cause mortality and think about this for public policy - and not a partial number from hospitals which appears to be running at about half the true level.

ONS release today has for the first time the number of deaths in care homes versus hospital and private homes, broken down by council areas.

In my area nearly half the deaths were in care homes in the week of April 17th.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/datasets/deathregistrationsandoccurrencesbylocalauthorityandhealthboard

In other places the number of deaths in care homes was far more than the deaths in hospital. County Durham had 45 COVID deaths in care homes versus just 37 in hospital. Warrington 21 in care homes vs 16 in hospital

Nicola Strugeon just reporting that deaths from yesterday (in hospital) is up by 70. The catch up from the weekend lag in recording is part of it, but it is extremely high.

I can't download the ONS dor some reason. How much higher last week was it that the previous 5 years' average?

THREAD 7

For once I've started the next thread before the current one got full.

I neglected to post yesterday's numbers; I'll do that here and then when today's numbers are out I'll put them on the new thread.

Yesterday's numbers

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Monday APRIL 27th

Total UK cases: 157,149
New UK cases: 4,310
Total UK Deaths: 21,092
New UK Deaths: 360

ONS release today has for the first time the number of deaths in care homes versus hospital and private homes, broken down by council areas.

No, the data was posted last week. This is the second release.

I have used it extensively in this thread.

You won't want to compare the ratio of hospital deaths with care home deaths directly, but rather with the average of care home deaths, and the average of hospital deaths for that LA, since some LAs will have more care homes and some will have few, so for example London covid-19 care home deaths won't look bad, but they are, because London's population is much younger than in any other region and it has fewer care homes. The risk of death is essentially directly proportional to e ^ n(age), where e is Euler's number and n is a constant somewhere over 0.1

The correct measure in terms of deaths would be care home deaths in a LA divided by care home residents in an LA. This data is as far as I can see not available anywhere more recent than the 2011 census, however I intend to examine it shortly.

Nicola Strugeon just reporting that deaths from yesterday (in hospital) is up by 70. The catch up from the weekend lag in recording is part of it, but it is extremely high.

Pretty much the same as the last few Tuesday/Wednesdays. The worrying thing is that our 7-day average is not dropping at all.

552 - England

Thanks for the Ireland data, @newaccountforCorona !

Rich areas more likely to be able to work from home than poor areas (seems obvious really)
Remainders more likely to comply with social distancing measures than Brexiteers