Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Tuesday APRIL 21st

Total UK cases: 129,044
New UK cases: 4,301
Total UK Deaths: 17,337
New UK Deaths: 823

Thanks for the new thread.

Thank you @Barracker

Thanks, Barracker 💐

The previous 2 UK daily figures were low, so looks just the usual peak after the WE

global confirmed cases pass 2.5m

Thanks Barracker

Thanks for the new thread

If one looks at countries in the world with the maximum new daily deaths,

the USA and UK remain #1 and #2, with the curve of new deaths slowly starting to decrease

#1 980 USA
#2 823 UK
#3 534 Italy
#4 430 Spain

The next countries are hundreds lower atm

Found you! This thread is so helpful for me. Thanks for starting a new one.

Interesting stats, thank you.

Very upset to see the death rate go up by so much again today. Obviously yesterdays death rate was still a tragedy, but at least it was going in the right direction.

Assuming they're not still suggesting we'd reached the peak as they were yesterday?

Bigchoc i thought the guardian said over 500 for Sweden reported today?

I'm pretty sure they're still saying the peak was 8 April
Figures seem all over the place, but none have been as high as that, and apparently today's includes many which happened between 1 and 17 April and even some in March

Assuming they're not still suggesting we'd reached the peak as they were yesterday

BBC just showed updated graph from NHS England showing that April 8th/9th is still showing as peak death rate and has been coming down ever since. Sorry can't capture it.

Does this work?

This is the graph that is being regularly updated by "date of death" so is more accurate.

midge I saw Sweden have 550 new cases and 185 new deaths

What was the peak death rate on 8/9th April-it looks higher today?

UK vaccine to be trialled on patients from Thursday, says Matt Hancock

Let's hope these very early trials go well - even so, still a loooong way to go before a mass vaccination program

However there are 70 teams around the world also working on a vaccine, so lots of other possibilities too

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-vaccine-to-be-trialled-on-patients-from-thursday-says-matt-hancock-11976681

Makes more sense, sorry for my poor comprehension skillS!

BlackCoffee, there is nothing untowards about the data, and the peak was 8 April without any question. The daily releases cover deaths reported yesterday but died any day up to yesterday. Most deaths released on any day will have died two days before the release.

There are several trends to consider at the moment:

1. London deaths are very strongly down and the hospitals are empty
2. The rest of the UK is not relatively doing so well probably because the infection level never got so high to start with, so it's a lower base.
3. In general deaths are being reported sooner than they were a week or two ago, presumably because the process of reporting thousands of dead people after time becomes more routine. This means that we are now getting more deaths reported on the day of death as a proportion of the people who died on that day than we were say two weeks ago.
4. Coupled with that there's always a lack of reporting on Sunday (which is published on Monday) and hence more on Monday, without any effect on the underlying death total, so Tuesday's release will look worse and Monday's better. This may apply also to Saturday, published Sunday. So if you want to just look at daily reports, then you have to take some off Tuesday's report and add them to Monday
5. Infections are massively down, obviously (ignore the daily tests because they are far too few in number), but deaths will fall much slower, as you will get some people dying slowly so from the peak of infection, say just before the lockdown, then you'd expect to see the most people dying 3 weeks later, but some will linger longer before dying, and then obviously people still being infected after lockdown will add to that, so you have a combination of the people dying slowly who were infected pre-lockdown and then the post-lockdown infections (if you have 1 million people infected and they pass on the infection to 600,0000 then that's a good result (because the alternative is 1 million people infecting 5 million people), but out of that 600,000 then maybe 20,000 die, and that's just inevitable - over time the virus decays to nothing, but it cannot possibly happen overnight but over many weeks, even as the process of viral growth happened quickly and without being noticing (since nobody dies the day after infection, so you can have all the Typhoid Marys going around infecting thousands of people before anyone notices, if your testing is not done randomly en masse throughout the country))

Here's my spreadsheet

gofile.io/?c=Q9HGif

The worst day was the 8th of April, when more than 800 people are known to have died in England. Recent days we can't be sure exactly how many people died for some time, but it's without any doubt at all significantly lower, probably below 600 daily now....

Thank you @Baaaahhhhh and @ShootsFruitAndLeaves.

That's interesting explanation, Shoots. Thank you.

Great explanation thanks Shoots and thanks for the thread Barracker

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/pandemic-sends-england-wales-death-toll-to-record-high

The U.K. reported its highest number of deaths in a week for two decades,
with fatalities in care homes more than quadrupling in seven days,
damping hopes that the coronavirus will soon be under control.

There were 18,516 deaths registered in the week ending April 10,
76% more than the average figure for the same week over the previous five years,
the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

Of the 8,000 excess deaths, more than 6,200 were linked to the coronavirus,
according to the ONS.
....
Some Covid-19 linked deaths may be being missed
while the pressure the pandemic has put on medical resources may also be causing fatalities,
according to research by the Continuous Mortality Investigation.

Professor Martin Marshall, chair of the Royal College of General Practitioners, said that another factor increasing deaths could be
people skipping treatment for other diseases to try and stay away from hospitals.

"We know from previous epidemics that people do stop seeking help for other conditions or for common health interventions,”
he said.
“If as has been reported, people are not coming forward with serious illness and are dying as a result of not seeking care, it is incredibly concerning.”

To be clear, the daily deaths are probably down everywhere, but London has done best.

For other regions it's less clear, e.g., the 16 April is now worst day for deaths in the NW, with 128 reported to have died that date. Oddly, only 79 have been reported for the 17th. It's possible there has been a sharp fall since then (not completely clear for a few more days) but essentially deaths stagnated at a high level there from 7th to 16th,

London just fell massively down.

We should consider some possibility that London became such a plague pit that some measure of herd immunity was achieved, as the peak daily death rate per capita was higher in London than anywhere else.