Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

A couple of slightly fuzzy thoughts (my breathing has gone downhill again today so I might not be making sense)
If average incubation is 5 days, then the lockdown to peak of 16 days suggests average death day is day 11. That does not sound unrealistic, especially as we aren't admitting people soon enough so they probably die sooner than in other countries.
Also could it be the real reason for not admitting people isnt a lack of beds but a lack of oxygen?

Also @Coquohvan the fact that loads of people who they tested for stab wounds and falls were infected. Hopefully this means a much wider infection rate than just those showing symptoms which tallies with other research

QuarantineQueen 💐 How many days of symptoms has it been now ?
I hope your buggering COVID buggers off very soon

@Quarantinequeen yes, I've heard from an nhs friend that oxygen is in short supply

Summer The low UK testing rate makes it difficult to draw conclusions about infection rate
Probably the best indicator is hospital admissions

The UK tested 22,814 tests on 21 April to get 4,451 cases

That's just under 20% when testing the most likely people to have COVID
How many of those 22,814 were not people with COVID-like symptoms or NHS staff ?

The Imperial estimate for the UK as of yesterday is only 4%:

Lack of oxygen, or lack of equipment to supply it ?
Or even of trained staff to set it up and monitor the patients ?

Ah, found the thread again.

Thanks, Barracker, et al.

Seems that a reliable antibody test is now available,
so Germany has started a largescale antibody test program, to monitor the infection and immunity spread

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/839594202/germany-is-conducting-nationwide-covid-19-antibody-testing?t=1587582083179

Antibodies in the blood indicate that someone has had the virus. The institute theorizes that these people have some level of immunity, although there is no guarantee of full immunity or how long any defense would last.

The antibody test launched last week, and initial results are expected in May.

Well this report is extremely sad. But unsurprising given we know that pregnancy, birth and breastfeeding outcomes for BAME women are shockingly bad in the U.K., even more so in the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/racial-inequality-in-britain-found-a-risk-factor-for-covid-19?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Yes that video is interesting saz

Thanks for the links too.

I suppose inequality in terms of medical treatment, possibly as much through conscious and subconscious racism attitudes within medical arenas, coupled with many BAME people not then accessing info re vit d in this climate too.

I expect there are multi factoral reasons.

I note the new equalities commission revealed today is shockingly thin on actual diversity

BAME people make up 72% of all NHS and carer deaths with COVID-19

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bame-people-make-up-72-off-all-nhs-and-carer-deaths-with-covid-19-11977263

Official figures show that BAME people make up 44% of NHS medical staff.

That's quite shocking

This figure is similar to their estimated proportion of the population.

In the Sky article. What does that mean?

Place marking because I keep losing the thread

"around 19% of patients to die in England were from ethnic minorities or mixed backgrounds.
This figure is similar to their estimated proportion of the population."

It just means that for patients the % of deaths from ethic minorities / mixed is about the same as their % of the population,
both around 19%

Very odd if the higher risk is just for staff
I'm not sure why that should be

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-daily-deaths-in-uk-has-flattened-but-there-will-be-no-sudden-fall-away-in-cases-11977217

Speaking at the daily government coronavirus briefing on Wednesday, Chris Whitty explained that
an exit from the lockdown and social distance measures imposed since the outbreak required a "highly effective vaccine and/or highly effective drugs".

The chance of having both by the end of this year was "incredibly small"
and until then the UK would need to rely on disruptive social distancing measures

Chris Giless@ChrisGiles*_

NEW: Today's update of the @FinancialTimes UK death model suggests that by 22 April there have been roughly

43,100 excess deaths linked to coronavirus.

The 2,000 increase from Tuesday reflects:

a) 759 hospital deaths scaled up for community deaths
b) new Scottish data... 1/

I've also been wondering whether the latest shortage is oxygen supply.

I happened across this link from the Telegraph but can only read the headline. There are also a few tabloid headlines about this from around ten days ago, but it hasn't made headlines recently.

Anecdotally, hospitals are short, which might explain why so many hospital beds are empty while people are still apparently dying before admission.

Ah here you all are.

Oxygen shortage would be very worrying indeed.

If they are going to pick a cohort to test for antibodies, I suggest the front line nurses and care staff who have worked with diagnosed Covid patients with no or very little PPE for over a month now.

Those who have never developed symptoms - have they developed a resistance due to low dose, or were they somehow immune to infection?

Yet another anecdotal idea - I've heard that nurses who have been working front line from the beginning have not "caught" Covid whereas those who were working away from patients but suddenly moved to wards with all Covid patients are more likely to catch it, and much more likely to get severe symptoms. The belief, as I understant it, is that the former got a more gradual viral dose, the latter were hit full force with a massive dose at one time.

Any knowledgeable people (larrygrylls perhaps) have any ideas on that theory?

Here's another article on why the right kind of respiratory support (hope that's the right term?) is vital. Links to the Dr Levitan article posted by @SummerSazz at 19.30:
www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200407/doctors-puzzle-over-covid19-lung-problems

Numbers of BAME staff in NHS though is far higher than proportion found at population level. Possibly if staff deaths for for people from BAME groups is running at 40%, say - that would reflect the proportion of BAME healthcare professionals in the NHS staff.

The BMA chief when calling for an enquiry said the % of BAME deaths among NHS staff was far higher than the % of BAME staff

I bet that if they look a the numbers BAME healthcare professionals make up a larger proportion of the front line staff - doctors, nurses, care staff, and a lower proportion of the administration and management staff.

I think they need to start separating out "NHS workers working with Covid patients" from "NHS workers who are working in admin, from home" when looking at figures. Because the NHS is such a large employer, the figures should be drilled down properly when calculating risk and discussing testing/infection rates. Otherwise they become meaningless.

Some clever people have done just that: www.hsj.co.uk/exclusive-deaths-of-nhs-staff-from-covid-19-analysed/7027471.article