Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

LW Granted😊
(But Rhonda Kirkpatrick is a bit of a kook)

"My understanding is that the 1.5m is only the most
vulnerable of the vulnerable... When you include all older people along with those with less serious pre-existing conditions you get a much, much larger number. If you add to that number people who are living with older people, or those with pre-existing conditions, you’ve got a significant portion of the population. The adage that it should be “business as usual” whilst we “protect the vulnerable” doesn’t really work."

A friend of mine is on the shielding list because she had cancer - but that was well over 15 years ago. It's not the type of cancer that can re-occur, so I think they are just being extra cautious.

I second the request for a separate vitamin D, and possible other physiological factors affecting outcomes thread, @LWJ70.
I'm interested in the physiology too, I don't mind admitting that I'm taking high dose vit D (and K2) currently, having been deficient in the past, even though I'm reserving judgement on the role of the vitamin in this particular virus for now.

I definitely think the subject has enough content to warrant its own thread, and is sufficiently divergent from this particular population counts and projections thread to be able to do it justice better.

I'm consciously not engaging as much with the slightly tangential physiological discussions and hypotheses on this stats thread, but actually would be more likely to on another I think.

What do you think?

Of course I hope you will continue to contribute to this thread too!

This one also interesting re: vitamin d (lots of papers shown still researching them):

I think the reason people are nervous about the vaccine is the potential for reduced safety testing with a rapid roll out, remember swine flu and GSK's Pandemrix?

www.narcolepsy.org.uk/resources/pandemrix-narcolepsy

www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history/narcolepsy-flu.html

Just noticed Singapore... Numbers up by almost 20% today. They seem to have gone from a country held up as a model of good practice to have the country with the worst proportionate rise! It’s also not good that Singapore is a hot country and it is spreading well here.

there not here

Yes, I'd prefer to see a separate thread on Vitamin D too.

A friend of mine is on the shielding list because she had cancer - but that was well over 15 years ago. It's not the type of cancer that can re-occur, so I think they are just being extra cautious.

It seems a bit haphazard, with many apparently at a higher risk than your friend not being on the list.

I think a data and science-based thread on physiological factors including vitamin d would be great.

@Eyewhisker
I saw that statistic in another group about the under 40s but i dont get it. Way less than 100,000 hqve died in uk and there has been quite a few deaths under 40 so where do they get that from?

It seems a bit haphazard

My brother found out on Thursday that he's on the shielding list after receiving the NHS letter- for an illness he didn't know he had!

10 years ago he went to GP about some patches of dry skin on his legs and ear lobes. Got some cream, cleared up within weeks and has never reoccured. He either didn't pay attention to the diagnosis or it wasn't properly explained to him- but seems this is linked to a lung condition.

He had to Google the name of the disease and phone his GP for clarification when he got the shielding letter. He's a very fit and healthy 50yo who once for a mild skin irritation.

So yes, definitely over cautious.

www.liberation.fr/planete/2020/04/17/covid-19-pourquoi-un-taux-de-mortalite-si-eleve-en-belgique_1785537?fbclid=IwAR3EBfi0IIJ9RKrZVTGaENsKOY3eCSTEd5vkLZrEkl8uRBHxF4IyKIs3hxU

There's an interesting ariticle in Liberation on excess mortality as a way of representing the death toll of Covid 19 more accurately.

There were 2807 more deaths than in previous years in Belgium between 9/3/20 and 5/4/20. In this period there were 2357 Covid deaths. So, around 500 extra, unexplained, deaths. In one province in Lombary saw a threefold increase in the death rate, but official Covid deaths accounted for a minority of these.

The go on to quote an article in Le Soir and observe an excess mortality in the Netherlands of 3,734 people in the same month. Nearly double the Covid-19 death toll.

@Floopsy Do we have the data for the UK for this?

"It seems a bit haphazard, with many apparently at a higher risk than your friend not being on the list."

Yes, she was also quite confused. She is glad that she is being kept safe, but doesn't feel she's at any higher risk than anyone else.

Really scary about Singapore, especially as we were really hoping that warm weather would kill this off.

Here in Korea, people are worried about an outbreak in Busan (second biggest city) since a nurse and her father both caught it. This has resulted in hundreds of people being quarantined while they wait for test results - everyone at her and her father's workplaces, plus everyone from the church her father attended (yes, some people still going to church here, I'm really at my wits end with these people, the third outbreak linked to a church here.) Hopefully it won't have spread too far.

@Derbygerbil it's just that Singapore is one of the few countries in the region with effective testing.

Indonesia has pisspoor testing and it's rampaging in Jakarta and killing many there but the numbers don't reflect it because there are so many crooks, incompetents and religious lunatics at the various helms.

We already knew that coronavirus spread very well in hot places as was proven by Islamic gatherings in Malaysia, Indonesia, India, etc., the problem for these countries, especially places with big tourism earnings is that the virus is not necessarily going to (a) spread and (b) kill many people across a warm country, but the spread of the virus with low lethality which is then brought back to ageing Europe where it rips through and kills hundreds of thousands of people.

The problem is that laissez faire attitudes in places like Indonesia (which is suffering badly economically but has a pisspoor 'lockdown') will mean it cannot be allowed to receive visitors from Western countries, and indeed responsible ordered countries like Singapore.

'Infections' don't mean that much at this point.

Do we have the data for the UK for this?

Yes, well up to April 3rd with the data to the 10th being released tomorrow. The ONS release weekly data sets.

For the week up to 3/4 deaths were around 6000 up on the average of the past 5 years. around 3.5 k of these were CV, the rest were a mixture of 2.1k respiratory causes ( ? undiagnosed CV) and other causes ( ? people not going to hospital with other illnesses.

The previous week deaths were 1k up.

Sorry if this has already been said but 429 deaths in England today apparently - fingers crossed today is another drop after yesterday.

It was always going to be low today

Why was it always going to be low today? It was low yesterday too.

That’s very low even compared to previous Mondays. Fingers crossed it’s reflecting a definite drop in figures.

Singapore's numbers went up simply because they are doing a fucking good job and when they realised that the virus was spreading in their migrant quarters, they went round and tested everyone and lo and behold, many positive cases, which is obvious because they knew that pretty much from day one when they did contact tracing from the initial Jurong cluster from which most of the first couple hundred cases originated.

Indonesia sends back thousands of infected people to their home country without a test. Religious fanatics are gathering in thousands in medieval lunatic Sharia Aceh. Brainwashed by the Saudis who, by the way, shut the fuck down, because their exporting of extremism and religious lunacy is only to fuck up other peope's countries, not their own.

foto.tempo.co/read/79833/hingga-kini-masjid-agung-lhokseumawe-masih-gelar-salat-jumat

Anyway, Malaysian students returning from there are testing positive, because, duh. analisaaceh.com/tiga-mahasiswa-malaysia-di-aceh-positif-covid-19-saat-kembali-ke-kuala-lumpur/

Why was it always going to be low today? It was low yesterday too

Weekend lag - every Sunday and Monday is the same in terms of seeing a big drop compared to Saturdays figures

It does look likely to be the lowest reported figure in 2 weeks though which is something - I hope

I can't see that even accounting for lag that these figures aren't going down.

Anyway here's my spreadsheet updated today. Deaths are massively down in London, regardless of the fact it's Sunday.

gofile.io/?c=LNPOQ3

We are without question well down for England as a whole also, relative to the peak.

@DivGirl

I thought this article in The Telegraph might shed some light on the matter but it's behind a paywall.