Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Thanks, Barracker - placemarking for later

I'm a lurker on these threads. I can add nothing of value other than thanks because they teach me a lot. So thank you all

Many thanks, barracker 💐

We're running you off your feet 🦶🏼🦶🏼- these threads fill up so quickly !

Thanks Barracker.

Good link for Scottish data if anyone wants it www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1200709/coronavirus-in-scotland-track-the-spread-in-these-charts-and-maps/

Thank you

Thank you - I read all your comments daily. Your wisdom is appreciated

Thanks Barracker :)

I'm eager to see UK figures tomorrow and next Tues-Thur, to see if the low Easter figures are genuine

Chief Scientific Advisor Vallance and stand-in PM Raab both warned that the peak has not yet passed and to expect 2 difficult weeks

Management of expectations ?

In Germany we had 4 days of low cases and low deaths over Easter, followed yesterday by high deaths (301) but still low cases

Obvious Easter effect there in reporting / collation, but I don't know if cases will remain low here,
and / or whether yesterday was a blip and deaths have peaked

I'll be looking at trend for both countries over the coming week

I started the first of these threads exactly a month ago today.

On March 15th the UK had a total of 35 deaths.
Since I started the first thread almost 13,000 people have died in hospital to this disease. Many more at homes.

The magnitude of this is so overwhelming.
My heartfelt condolences to all of you who have lost loved ones.
My sincere thanks to you all for keeping such calm, kind company on this journey.
I hope we all get to see these threads reach their natural end as soon as is humanly possible.
In the meantime, we watch and we wait.

Thank you Barracker!

And thanks for the mobility checker link; off to check now...

Cross post; so many people in a month.

I've just read a truly gutting report of a pregnant nurse who has died, though baby saved.

Thanks for the new thread, and to all the informative and calm contributions.
Apologies for my misremembering the F1 ventilators/CPAP thingy - was in the middle of kids bedtime and should have looked it up myself.

Thanks @Barracker

So tragic re nurse. Are pregnant nurses still working rather than isolating??! Although guess she could well have been infected prior to that guidance.

Also her name suggested she was BAME, I noticed.

Thanks Barracker

Chancellor Merkel has announced that some years in schools & some shops can reopen on Monday, also hairdressers
< after a month's lockdown, we are now a rather shaggy country ! >

This gradual reopening now was recommended by Leopoldina (the German National Academy of Sciences)

Merkel sounded cautious, but with the comparatively low deaths in Germany and after the latest economic figures,
many people here are now as worried about the economic disaster as by COVID.

The small FDP (business-oriented Liberals) have frequently criticised lockdown,
but Merkel's CDU party and her SPD coalition partners continue to support a cautious strategy.

Since Germany is a federal republic, each of the 16 states have the right to decide the timing and specifics of reopening within their state

Thanks for the new thread

I’ve grown to really rely on this thread amongst the others on mn. Calm, and no hyperbole like other posts. Helps me feel more on an even keel.

35 deaths only a month and 4 threads ago

Reminds me, Q from Marsha on last thread re Germany:

"do you know how they measure when to intervene? Is it symptom based or do they do an oxygen reading? Or other"

When the health teams do their regular visit, they check on heart, BP, breathing, symptom changes etc.

Going by posts from a couple of patients here, they would immediately admit to hospital if the patient reports breathing difficulties

I presume they would also admit if the patient does a Boris and says they are fine,
but their readings are still concerning.

There is an obvious risk of hospital infection, but the habit in Germany has always seemed to be to treat patients to the maximum,
in comparison to what I'd expect in the UK.
Health rationing or queues have never been an expected part of the system

So far, that hasn't changed, with hospital consultants in interviews stressing that they need to treat symptoms as early as possible for best results

Im glad that others have cottoned on to the under reporting in regard to deaths outside hospital etc. I tried telling people about it but was called names.

Thanks, I'm finding these threads oddly reassuring. So difficult to know what news to trust. I sense we're quite a few weeks away yet, but hopefully we're moving in the right direction.

Placemarking

Thank You Barracker. I have had my email from the NMC today, inviting me to re-join the Nursing register after 3 and a bit years. It would appear that staff are still needed.

Does underreporting really matter in the short term? Clearly, long term, we can make a better estimate of the size of epidemic and number of deaths and critique the government’s response.

Short term, however, it is all about trends and, to see a trend, the best way is to be consistent and not change the way we measure things. As long as we test the same proportion of Covid cases, the error is merely calibration and, although it changes the gradient, it does not change the rate of curvature.

There seems to be a lot of pessimism on these threads but, to me, we are already passed the worst in terms of number of infected within the community. I know some disagree and only time will tell who is right.

It is also important to remind ourselves that, globally, we seem to have dodged a bullet, at least in terms of deaths (maybe not economically). To date, the global death toll due to Covid is less than that due to one low yield nuke dropped on one city (Hiroshima).

Checking in: thanks for the new thread :-)