Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

We have definitely "dodged the bullet" of the ¼ or ½ million deaths predicted by Imperial
for the scenarios of doing nothing, or more moderate measures without lockdown

I think however we naturally tend to compare today to our experience of just over a month ago,
our "old normal" for the last several decades,
rather than 2 horrific possible futures that we believe would otherwise have happened, but which we never actually experienced

The change in the life of all countries within just the last few weeks is rather like experiencing a slow motion nuke

Our emotional acceptance has not yet caught up with our intellectual understanding

Thanks for these threads.

Thanks for the new thread, been lurking mostly since the beginning.
Interestingly article in the Guardian this evening with leaked minutes from a London A&E meeting 10 days ago. Mentions a huge increase in cardiac arrests and paramedics attending already deceased patients.
Can't seem to copy a link as I use the Guardian app.

Please can someone update me on today's figures?
I have tried looking on bbc but no figures just the announcement ta about care homes . Thanks

Thanks for the new thread. That reminder of the figures just a month ago makes it very stark doesn't it.

I'm finding this thread a haven of sense and calm in the midst of all of this but also a thread where I see compassion, which I don't always see on others as one of the shielded. So thank you all for that as well.

761 deaths of which 651 were in England with London, Midlands and North West and East England having the same number next.

@Barracker

Do you have the title of the article please? I'd really like to read that.

The Harvard study is interesting. So much will depend on what we discover about immunity.

'Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.'

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

Thank you for another thread. Strange to think a month ago we were still at the handwashing stage. How much has changed in a month! A horrific month in many ways. Really hope things improve very soon

Sorry - to be clearer - it's the guardian article of leaked minutes that I was referring to. Also would lie to thank you for the thread though

Place marking

Does underreporting really matter in the short term?

I think it does.
I think if you focus to much on a single group of people you run the risk of portraying false trends, false info etc.
As the numbers the government report end up all over media etc, people could get a false sense of what's truly happening. There could be 300 deaths in hospitals, people think that's not so bad, soon all be over... But there's 700 deaths out of hospital or of people that haven't been tested. Does that make sense?

Same as admissions, government spin the numbers and only report on ones in hospital with positive tests, potentially ignoring hundreds, if not thousands of Covid sufferers. Gives a false sense of what's really going on.

Thank you to Barracker and all the contributors to these threads.

Thanks for the new thread. Will be interesting to see how the long weekend has impacted reporting & if we see an increase in numbers over the next couple of days.

And the promised testing does not seem to be materialising in sufficient quantities.

The situation in care homes makes me feel so sad.

Another lurker thanking you for these threads @Barracker. Calm, rational, intelligent analysis of a completely surreal situation.

This is my 'go to' place when I need to get away from overload and hysteria.

Place marking- I couldn’t do without these threads, thanks op and others.

There is statistical data that children are less susceptible to catching COVID, ^
especially under age 5

In contrast, RKI (German public health inst) show that age group 80+ have quite a high % of cases
when normalised to how many there are aged 80+ in the population

• presumably because they re more likely to exhibit symptoms if the are infected and hence more / most of this age group are tested

I haven't seen corresponding normalised data for the UK

Compare all cases as a bar chart of age groups
vs the same graphs normalised per 100,000 population of each age cohort

I don't know if the elderly in Germany go out more

In most German states - unlike in the UK until now - care homes have allowed visitors during lockdown, unless the care home itself restricts visitors due to infection

• sadly several care homes have been infected

As mentioned, the German death stats include care home deaths - and these have been rising for some weeks

Thank you from a lurker.

Will the numbers from the Easter weekend really still be unreported and therefore an even higher number tomorrow? Even though today is Wednesday.

Here's today's numbers Cherryghost

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Wednesday APRIL 15th

Total UK cases: 98,476
New UK cases: 4,605
Total UK Deaths: 12,868
New UK Deaths: 761

Starlightgazers it was Gammeldragz who referenced the article you wanted, I think.

Thanks Barracker

Thank you for the thread Barracker, I'll catch up properly in the morning.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/sharp-rise-in-ill-patients-dying-at-home-since-coronavirus-outbreak?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other