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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

999 replies

Barracker · 15/04/2020 20:28

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
LWJ70 · 20/04/2020 05:46

Could anyone share any referenced data on worldwide daily intake of vitamin D3 (or % deficiency in winter), especially those with a graphical overlay of covid 19 mortality?

I have attached the following data with references, but it's from 20th March - hence the data is very old.
As is the covid mortality overlay.

I found some data revealing that the average daily vitamin D3 intake in the UK was approx 2.2-3.5 mcg - roughly in line with Ireland.

An elderly Norwegian female on average eats much more than the 10mcg recommended by the UK NHS website (which hasn't been updated in 10 years by the look of it).

Even if vitamin D3 deficiency has no causal effect upon covid 19 mortality, the UK's levels are shockingly bad. The sparse data from Spain is even worse.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4288313/

www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
YesThatIsMyRealName · 20/04/2020 06:18

www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/19/novak-djokovic-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-tennis

I was quite surprised to see Djokovic turn up as an anti-vaxxer, I always had him pegged as a sensible sort.

ncov.mohw.go.kr/en Daily update from Korea, 13 new cases and 2 deaths. There is a lot of talk about ending social distancing, such as it is (there seems to be very little of it actually going on, restaurants and cafes are full as far as I can see). I just don't want to end up in a Singapore situation where it seems like it's ended and then there's another outbreak. Schools and universities are still suspended, all government institutions (museums and so on) are closed, bars and clubs too. I'm not sure how many people are still working from home, but it seems like that has more or less ended.

Given that the hakwons (after school academies that are on every corner here, children will typically go to at least one a day, sometimes two or three depending on how insane pushy their parents are) never closed here, I'm wondering how much of a difference social distancing even makes compared to testing and tracking. The two big outbreaks here were both linked to churches - one a woman who had obvious symptoms but refused a test and then went to church every day for a week or so, one a church where they sprayed salt water into each other's mouths using a sprayer where they didn't change or sterilise the spray-y part. So these were quite extreme cases of people clearly acting in ways that would obviously pass on symptoms. But I wonder if, as long as tracking and testing continues, social distancing is not particularly necessary?

Of course, the tracking part is far harder in many countries with stricter privacy laws. Here, we don't have any choice - you have corona virus, they're going to track your credit card and check where you've been so they can warn other people. Of course, this has implications for civil liberties which is something of a worry for the future.

pocketem · 20/04/2020 06:22

Latest data from New York on their deaths

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
pocketem · 20/04/2020 06:28

Extremely few deaths in people over 50. Adds weight to the argument to restrict lockdown to older people only

pocketem · 20/04/2020 06:28

Under 50

pocketem · 20/04/2020 06:33

NYS

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
Reastie · 20/04/2020 06:38

@YesThatIsMyRealName can I ask, if schools are still closed, what are parents for childcare doing that need to work and can’t work from home?

NeurotrashWarrior · 20/04/2020 06:51

Forgot to link this letter to the guardian re vit D:

I am not alone in being alarmed at the preponderance of deaths from Covid-19 among those with dark skin (UK government urged to investigate coronavirus deaths of BAME doctors, 10 April). While Covid-19 is likely to magnify the effect of social deprivation, I don’t think this is the whole story.
Vitamin D is needed for many reasons, including correct functioning of the immune system. It is converted to its active form by the action of sunlight on the skin. This is impeded by having dark skin and leads to low levels of vitamin D. Supplementing with vitamin D3 at 5000iu daily corrects this deficiency, and it is now an urgent need for all people with dark skin (and most with white). There is a reasonable chance that vitamin D replacement could help reduce the risk we are seeing playing out so tragically in the BAME community.
I am convinced that the damage to health of an unhealthy lifestyle is being magnified by the pandemic. Healthy vitamin D levels might well make a difference. It might be useful if this, and other lifestyle advice, was given more prominence in the daily press briefings.
Dr Colin Bannon
Crapstone, Devon

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/role-of-vitamin-d-deficiency-in-bame-medic-deaths?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

NeurotrashWarrior · 20/04/2020 06:54

Very interesting data LWJ.

Humphriescushion · 20/04/2020 06:59

Some data from France - it appears that for the week 6- 12 of april 19,000 new patients were admittmed to hospital with coronavirus. This no. Was i think lower than other weeks. I think this is what is bothering me in the UK. Numbers going to hospital seem very low in the scheme of things. I think there are around 20,000 total at the moment. Since 24 feb 104,000 people were admitted into hosptial in France. i believe there was always the beds so why is this number not higher.

YesThatIsMyRealName · 20/04/2020 07:11

@Reastie There are far more stay at home mums here, it's really hard for women to go back to work after having children. If both parents work, many people leave their children with the grandparents or aunties (since 50% of the population live in Seoul/Seoul suburbs, it's easier to be close to family). If they don't have family, hiring a nanny is much cheaper than in the UK. Failing that, they just leave the kids at home by themselves, I've heard of five year olds being left at home all day, that wouldn't be considered weird or shocking here.

missclimpson · 20/04/2020 07:13

I think what is happening in our bit of France is that the university hospital has the most serious cases and the "polycliniques" have others. The polycliniques are privately owned, but regulated, open to all, have a full range of services including intensive care and cost us no more than the other hospitals. DH was due to have a minor op in one this month which has been postponed and I understand they are being used to treat Covid patients. We saw a réeducation centre on the news the other day with lots of physio and occupational therapy for patients out of intensive care and there are also a lot of convalescent homes, so I am sure there is more overall hospitalisation than in the UK.

Humphriescushion · 20/04/2020 07:28

Yes missclimpson it appears many more are admitted to hospital. It seems that early intervention is important as well. If there are spaces in the uk i actually would prefer to have seen more people admitted.

pocketem · 20/04/2020 07:44

Data from Public Health England

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
LWJ70 · 20/04/2020 10:08

@NeurotrashWarrior

Can't remember if I mentioned the other letter to The National from ''Barbara Boucher, Honorary Professor of Medicine at the Blizard Institute at Queen Mary University of London, joined Dr Peter Cobbold, Emeritus Professor, University of Liverpool and Helga Rhein, a retired GP in Edinburgh and others.''

www.thenational.scot/news/18385471.medics-fresh-call-provide-vitamin-d-need/

LWJ70 · 20/04/2020 10:17

Another angle:
One of vitamin D's role in the immune system relates to ACE2.
ACE2 enzyme supresses cytokine storms and Vit D3 goes to the receptor gene and activates ACE2 production. If there's not enough vit D3 patient continues with acute respiratory distress syndrome.

This video leads us through it paper by paper :
www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=8&v=45rlZGRz6Qo&feature=emb_logo

I've checked all the research papers, it's 100% legit, not fake news.

I've just realised , rat studies on SARS have shown the ACE2 receptor is on the X chromosome , both SARS and covid have higher male mortality , males have XY obviously. Lots of other male/factors too though.

Edujaded · 20/04/2020 11:01

@LWJ70, really interesting articles and discussions on the biological reactions to covid-19. I think it might be really useful to have a thread dedicated solely to that discussion, inviting scientific references in the same way we evidence data here. Would you consider starting a new thread? I'd be grateful for both.

pocketem · 20/04/2020 11:07

UK near the bottom of the table for testing

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
NeurotrashWarrior · 20/04/2020 11:47

Thank you LW. And yes that would be interesting, a science thread.

NeurotrashWarrior · 20/04/2020 11:48

I couldn't open that link for some reason but the ACE thing is linked to diabetes isn't it?

LWJ70 · 20/04/2020 11:51

@NeurotrashWarrior

Sorry
This one works:

LWJ70 · 20/04/2020 11:53

This one works:

B1rdbra1n · 20/04/2020 11:58

Ah, yes, Dr Rhonda Patrick🤔 not sure about her I think she stays a bit too much into crystal healing/personality cult territory, she's buddies with Joe Rogan, Tim ferriss, Ben Greenfield.

LWJ70 · 20/04/2020 12:10

@B1rdbra1n

It is a fact (but not well known) that Vit D3 does suppress cytokine storms.

This thread is devoted to factual data

Eyewhisker · 20/04/2020 12:12

There’s interesting proposals from Tony Blair Institute about a phased ending to the lockdown. It also contains some useful stats and country comparisons. They quote ONS data that the death rate for under 40s is 1 in 100,000. If that is based on confirmed cases, the true death rate for under 40s is probably closer to 1 in a million or less.

institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Managing%20Uncertainty%2C%20Minimising%20Harm.pdf

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