Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

'According to your data, in Germany it's being based on number of new cases, and the fact that they are dropping. But in the UK where testing was (and is) practically non-existent, and where they have no idea how many in the community are infected, how are they making any estimate at all? It seems wishful thinking to me.'

I believe the early estimate was based on an Imperial Survey on number of contacts people had pre and post lockdown.

With more data it will be based on hospital admissions. Unless people believe that the illness has suddenly become less virulent (or that less people are being admitted to hospital) hospital admissions will be directly proportional to number of infections. The R0 or hospital admissions (as it is a proportionality) will be the same R0 as the rate of infection, with a lag of about 7 days

We do need to see more about the impact of asymptomatic carriers on R0 and how it will affect coming out of lockdown.

Early pre symptomatic/asymptomatic spread in China

Potential 30% asymptomatic cases www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified. China did not include positive asymptomatic cases in early data which they are now including since February 7th.

Ending COVID via Vaccination

Without disappearing down another rabbit hole, the fact that according to several studies a high percentage of people don't produce antibodies makes vaccine design difficult. The mutation issue might be a red herring, for example Norovirus (winter vomiting bug) is a virus that is able to evade antibody production by it's mode of action (nothing to do with mutation) and hence we can't vaccinate for.

With more data it will be based on hospital admissions. Unless people believe that the illness has suddenly become less virulent (or that less people are being admitted to hospital) hospital admissions will be directly proportional to number of infections

Unless UK death rate is higher - eg due to not getting people oxygen earlier enough.

873 for the UK

Have they said that people don't produce antibodies or did they actually say that only a low number of people have antibodies .. which could just be saying only a low number of people have actually so far been infected

Eeesh that's a massive jump

Is 873 just hospital deaths?!?

Still looks like a plateau then

How is it really that many? How? Surely we should be slowing down now.

It's always more on a Tuesday isn't it? The figures are in line with the end of last week.

I guess as the figures were so low at the weekend and yesterday that it has skewed them. They were particularly low over the weekend weren't they.

It was always going to be higher today hopefully tomorrow will see a big drop again

Interesting bird.

new schools thread on this opening in 4, 3,2, 1...

It’ll be interesting to see how many of those are from previous days and how @Barracker‘s volcano looks when she next has time to update it x

Bigchoc totally agree that I'd want to see data from anywhere other than China. I'd also be wary of some of the other countries.
It amazing how they changed or rather 'revised' their stats to match pretty much what Europe has seen only when questioned how did it spread so much and differently and why did they not warn earlier. And where are those who tried to warn us - incidentally.
Also very interesting information re vaccines. I also agree they haven't needed to find vaccines for other coronavirus because it's just a cold.

I would be interested in how SARS and Mers just petered out and yet this one keeps spreading and apparent it mutating into different strains in different countries.

Will someone start a new thread & link it please?

Terrible number, so sad for the poor people and their families.

The figure isn’t just people who very sadly died yesterday. 43 of them actually happened in March, and 493 were spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

OK so are we still plateauing then? Or are we going down?

Estimates vary as to many people produce antibodies. A Padua study quoted in Times found that of 100 infected only about 35% produced antibodies. The Diamond Princess found that of 3700 passengers only 700 tested positive (not were infected to be specific). Anecdotal stories from NHS staff report 60% false negatives on testing. It could be down to incorrect testing protocols (although I'd be tempted to trust an Italian University protocol) or the way the virus works.

We just don't know, and it has big implications for the percentage of any population that is infected and asymptomatic, transmissibility, herd immunity and vaccine production

New York Times article with data on excess deaths in March (from all causes) for 11 countries.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Back, briefly to Vit D..... why has Sweden got high levels, it makes no sense. I can only find recent, last couple of years, evidence of fortification in foods, but prior to this, records show they had really low levels. No sun, but lots of fatty fish?

Contrarily, why is Italy apparently low? Makes no sense. Sunny climes, good diet, lots of sun, perma-tanned elderly tottering around on the beaches, or propped in doorways in the mornings.

Anyone?

@Baaaahhhhh Perhaps because Swedish are on average more fair skinned than Italians they are also more efficient at producing vitamin D in scarce winter sunlight?