Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

My 4yo is on the shielded list too as he has heart & lung issues as a result of his premature birth. He's certainly not in the "will die soon" category, but he wouldn't be here if he's not had significant medical intervention.

In order to keep him safe, the whole family stays in as much as possible.

2 of DD's friends are on the shielded list, one has leukaemia 2 years ago & the other has an overactive immune system & lots of allergies.

Hardly lifestyle related or their fault

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Sunday APRIL 19th

Total UK cases: 120,067
New UK cases: 5,850
Total UK Deaths: 16,060
New UK Deaths: 596

Even for Sunday, that looks to be going down

Everything crossed that we're coming to a plateau or downturn. Please God or whoever else is listening.

@MilesJuppIsMyBitch

I'm one of the 1.5 million.

Highly vulnerable.

54 years old.

I've got non Hodgkin's lymphoma. Diagnosed fourteen years ago. Been in remission ten years.

I've spent the last six months hard landscaping the garden and I'm as strong as an ox.

Ex western Australian state cycling champion, I can still ride 50 miles at the drop of a hat. Spend a lot of time cycling the south downs.

Do a lot of hill walking. Usually walk about 30 miles a week.

I'm certainly not about to drop dead in the next year.

it's Saturday, technically

my 19 year old daughter is on the shielding list. She has cystic fibrosis. She is expected to live to pushing 50 nowdays, all being well, Not just about making it into her 20s

Nettle, exactly. The two young children I know of who are shielding have around half a century each of additional life expectancy in normal times....

I am in the middling list, i.e. the one below Shielding.

I have ulcerative colitis and spent Xmas and New Year in hospital on IV steroids and three types of immunosuppressants.

I am still on the immunosuppressants (daily mesalazine and azathioprine tablets, with infliximab via IV every eight weeks) and the decision for me NOT to be shielded was based on having come off the steroids and having maintained the immunosuppressants for 6 weeks.
Also, regular blood tests have shown my immune system is "normal" after the drugs have had their effect (so therefore hyperactive before).

In summary, being on immunosuppressants doesn't necessarily mean you require shielding.

Green marks countries with fast rising death totals:
Brazil, Turkey, India

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT stats geek)

A key take-home tonight:

Thus far, curves are rising steeply but descending slowly.
Often we see more of a plateau than a peak per se.

Demonstrates why restrictions are being eased slowly, gradually and carefully.
No quick return to normality.

UK:
• Hospitals in London & Midlands now have fewer covid patients with each day

• Rate of increase slowing elsewhere across UK

• Suggests UK is at or near peak for new infections, though too early to say,
and care homes of course absent from this

Sweden didn't close their schools, pubs or restaurants. They have milder social distancing measures with gatherings of more than 50 people banned and half of all employees working from home. Seems to be working so far despite dire predictions that they would end up with an uncontrollable epidemic that would overwhelm their healthcare system

I’m think that perhaps Covid-19 is turning developed countries healthcare strength into its weakness...

For instance NHS demand has far outstripped population growth in recent decades by virtue of its own success in keeping more people alive for longer with “underlying conditions”. Even in the past five years, Special Educational Needs budget pressures have leapt by over 10% per year largely because children are surviving who wouldn’t have done until very recently.

Put bluntly, the significant proportion of the population who owe their lives to the massive improvements in healthcare over the past generation, and who are at particular risk from Covid-19 as a result, wouldn’t now be alive had they lived in developing countries.

Perhaps this is why developed countries seem to be having a worse time from Covid-19... In other words, it’s not just efficiency of testing and recording of deaths, it is actually impacting on us worse than Africa and India etc., because the “vulnerable” portion of the population is so much smaller there. The tables have turned!

@pocketem that graph is more or less meaningless, you need to look at the rate per population. The UK has one of the highest populations in Europe (I think we're second) so it would make sense for us to also have the most cases and highest death toll.

@Derbygerbil I'd never thought of that but it does make a lot of sense.

I remember David Steel's Abortion Act in 1968
It had an upper limit of 28 weeks - because in 1968, few babies would survive before then

At the other end of the equation, Western countries have a much higher % of elderly people,
because of health services that treat diseases of middle age & later

• China's one-child policy have helped its median age to be comparable

The UK has a lower median age than most other W / N European countries;
Ireland even more so
But developing / emerging countries ......

47 Italy
46 Germany
45 Spain
42 France
40 UK
38 Ireland

32 Turkey
38 China

38 NZ
38 Australia

32 Argentina
33 Brazil

17 Uganda
22 Ghana
25 Egypt
28 India

@DivGirl That’s not correct. If Sweden had made a big mistake, we would see their death rate increase to really shocking levels. In fact, it is below ours as a percentage of population and starting to fall, not increase.

There may be social distancing in Sweden, but it suggests that the extra measures such as closing shops, pubs, restaurants and primary schools are not needed to control the virus and prevent the health service being overwhelmed.

@pocketem

In practice, it seems Swedes are largely adopting the practices of other European countries, just not in an enforced way. They may not be as socially distanced as their Nordic neighbours in their everyday life - which explains their higher death rate - but neither are they behaving anything like the UK and other European countries did before their lockdowns. If it was business as usual in Sweden (and their economic forecasts indicate a massive slowdown like the rest of us) then the apocalyptic projections may have com true.

Italy tried moderate measures and would have suffered carnage if they hadn't locked down

ALL Scandinavian countries have suffered far fewer cases and deaths than N & W European countries - even normalised wrt population -
whatever the strategy followed

Sweden managed with an "acceptable" level of deaths

• still much higher than their Scandi neighbours, normalised or raw figures:

1,540 Sweden
355 Denmark
165 Norway
9 Iceland

How an epidemic grows depends on several factors that may differ between countries:

population density, single person / multi-generational households, huggy / distant culture ...

Maybe indeed Vitamin D levels too:
Scandinavian countries are high, N&W countries mostly low ,
e.g. UK low, Italy very low

Might Swedish people also have lower rates of predisposing underlying health issues?

Modelling data from Ireland which might be interesting to some of you

www.gov.ie/en/publication/ea86cc-covid-19-modelling-data-thursday-16-april-2020/

Sweden has relatively low levels of obesity (by European standards) which might equate to less people with underlying health issues....

worldpopulationreview.com/countries/obesity-rates-by-country/

I don't know if anyone has posted this, but it's good for comparing against specific territories. You can change the countries and the criteria as well choosing: infected/deaths/new cases etc.

worldpopulationreview.com/countries/coronavirus-by-country/

"lower rates of predisposing underlying health issues"

I'd expect that to show up in average life expectancy

Life expectancy (av m/f)
80 / 83 UK
82 / 85 Sweden
82 / 86 Italy

Median age
40 UK
41 Sweden
47 Italy

How much of a higher risk are pregnant women ? I'm pregnant if I wasn't I would feel less anxious then I do now. I'm 33 it's so worrying being on the high risk list seeing it wrote down :-(

Maria860 This is a calm, factual article by an Ob-Gyn physician:

theconversation.com/pregnant-in-a-time-of-coronavirus-the-changing-risks-and-what-you-need-to-know-134745