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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

999 replies

Barracker · 15/04/2020 20:28

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
Gfplux · 19/04/2020 13:31

We all need to to ask why Johnson is hiding?
If he is terminally ill then tell us.
If not
Is he allowing all his ministers to take the flack so he can put on his multi coloured coat and emerge as the saviour?

Frompcat · 19/04/2020 13:36

What are you banging on about Gfplux. He's recovering from being in intensive care Confused

Edujaded · 19/04/2020 13:38

Quarantinequeen that is simply horrendous treatment. The policy to keep people at home as unwell as you are whilst there is still capacity must be challenged. I'm doing what I can to contribute to that voice, but my concern is so many people seem intent on denying the situation is as bad as it is. This thread and others like it are so important. Thank you for sharing your experience. If you feel well enough it might be worth emailing journalists too, personal stories can resonate powerfully with people.

Gfplux · 19/04/2020 13:41

How can we trust any of the numbers coming out of a Government not in control.

cathyandclare · 19/04/2020 13:41

QuarantineQueen I have the triage policy from a couple of practices ( revising as offered to be a returner) and I'm shocked you weren't admitted.

Gfplux · 19/04/2020 13:42

Frompcat I am banging on about a Government without a rudder.

cathyandclare · 19/04/2020 13:43

Gfpluc- not sure this is the right thread. There are many others.

Gfplux · 19/04/2020 13:44

Frompcat just read what Politico.eu say this morning.
QUOTE
GOVE AS GOOD AS YOU GET. Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove came out fighting this morning against a damning report suggesting the government was asleep at the wheel in the crucial early stages of the coronavirus crisis. The story everybody is talking about — this Sunday Times long-read about the “38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster” — suggests the country was too consumed by Brexit and too hobbled by a decade of austerity to deal with the pandemic, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson did not take the threat seriously enough.

‘Grotesque:’ But Gove, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, said suggestions the PM had not been on the case were “grotesque.” He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Program: “Anyone who has seen him lead the response to this crisis will know that his focus, his energy, his determination, his passion, has been to beat this virus.” And he told Sophy Ridge on Sky News: “Nobody can say that the PM wasn’t throwing heart and soul into fighting this virus … His leadership has been clear. He’s been inspirational at times.”

Cobra ‘no-show:’ Gove insisted elements of the report were “wrong” or — in a rather tepid phrase — “off beam.” He defended Johnson for failing to attend any of the first five Cobra meetings on the crisis, pointing out that the PM is not present for most Cobra meetings. They are usually taken by a relevant Cabinet minister who reports back to Downing Street. “You can take a single fact, wrench it out of context, whip it up in order to try to create a j’accuse narrative, but that is not fair reporting,” Gove protested to Marr.

Try harder: Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth told Ridge the claim the report was “off beam” was “possibly the weakest rebuttal of an exposé in British political history.” But Gove did admit: “All governments make mistakes including our own. We seek to improve and to learn.”

PM health check: Gove told Ridge the PM was “recovering well” and in “cheerful spirits.” He confirmed reports that the PM spoke to Raab on Friday. According to the Sunday Telegraph, Raab visited the PM for three hours at Chequers, along with top adviser Dominic Cummings and Communications Director Lee Cain, while other top officials like adviser Eddie Lister and Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill, were there via video-conference.
END QUOTE

Frompcat · 19/04/2020 13:47

Gfplux

Not really sure where that suggests that Johnson is terminally ill.

Gfplux · 19/04/2020 13:48

Cathyandclair,
The problem we all have is that there are statistics and their are lies and more and more we are being fed statistics that could be downright lies.
If you can not believe a Government minister who says “PPE will arrive tomorrow” how can we believe it when the same minister says “today’s deaths are xxxx”

HostessTrolley · 19/04/2020 13:48

That’ll be related to the Sunday times article

NeurotrashWarrior · 19/04/2020 13:49

I smell a GF.

Gfplux · 19/04/2020 13:53

Frompcat, I asked if he was terminally ill. I don’t think he is, but what are we to believe.
This thread is about statistics, numbers don’t ever lie.

However I am seriously suggesting that the people fronting up the daily numbers are not sure they believe what they are saying.

cathyandclare · 19/04/2020 13:54

In accusing the government of falsifying figures you are accusing doctors, the NHS, ONS of being complicit which is offensive.

They are clear what the death toll figures cover. They discussed the ONS data on Tuesday. I'm sure this week we will see more worrying figures from the community. The stats are there, the analysis into excess community deaths and whether it's undiagnosed Covid or people not getting help for other illnesses is ongoing.

Edujaded · 19/04/2020 13:57

Returning to the statistics, I've been following the analysis of Mark Handley at UCL, he ventures a bit further than the excellent ft analysis, but both very similar.

nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

Plbrookes · 19/04/2020 13:58

@StatisticallyChallenged
The ONS figures are that 10% of Covid related deaths happened outside hospital.

Gfplux · 19/04/2020 14:01

Cathyandclaire
I am questioning the Governments numbers and how they put them together.
Don’t be silly this is not about the people who feed the numbers into the machine of government but about how the Government put them together and then announce them in public.

LeeMiller · 19/04/2020 14:05

@Quarantinequeen that is horrendous, as is the thread about the mother of the9 year old who called 999.
Aside from oxygen, the anecdotal reports suggest that the various anti-virals and other drugs being used need to be administered early to be effective. Today a social media group of 100,000 Italian medics shared an open letter with requests for the health minister for 'phase 2', based on their two months' experience: it underlines the importance of diagnosis and treatment (including early use of drugs, also off-label) before bilateral interstitial pneumonia develops.

StatisticallyChallenged · 19/04/2020 14:11

PIbrookes I was referring to the overall numbers which showed roughly 50% discrepancy in total deaths.

They are saying 10% outside hospitals but that is for whole period up to week 14 - so its a couple of weeks out of date. It seems - but this might just be reporting- like it was also a bit delayed in getting in to care home vs general population but that it's now running rampant. So possibly a mix of deaths not recorded as covid, reporting delay and change in the makeup of the infected population

NewAccountForCorona · 19/04/2020 14:11

QuarantineQueen, I believe you, and I believe that your area isn't the only area that is "triaging" people like this. The insistence on keeping people out of hospital is just ridiculous.

I have given instructions to my son to drive me to the hospital and dump me in the car park if I get very ill with it; not to wait for advice or an ambulance. And if he drives away they'll have to take me in!

Shall we return to statistics. BigChoc - those stats for Germany are very good. 70% survival from ICU means either the German ICUs are much better, or that they are taking people into ICU who are less seriously ill. It would be good to know the proportion of ventilated patients who survive and also what proportion are on ventilators for a long time - it seems getting people off ventilators is the biggest problem in many hospitals.

Plbrookes · 19/04/2020 14:15

@StatisticallyChallenged
Thanks for your reply. When you say a 50% discrepancy do you mean the difference between week 14 this yr and previous yrs?

Inniu · 19/04/2020 14:22

The U.K. figures of 10% of CV19 deaths outside hospital just are not credible when compared to other countries, particularly given the reluctance to admit people to hospital in the UK

DivGirl · 19/04/2020 14:24

Scotland said 62% hospital this week, I'd imagine the UK as a whole are in a similar region.

cathyandclare · 19/04/2020 14:25

596 UK deaths yesterday- although weekend figures

Humphriescushion · 19/04/2020 14:28

No 10 percent is not realistic unforunately.
France hosptial 11,000 about
Care homes 7000 about

www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-traumatismes/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires/infection-a-coronavirus/articles/infection-au-nouveau-coronavirus-sars-cov-2-covid-19-france-et-monde