Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Ok My thinking is wrong on this, i am not comparing like with like. So it looks like the same no. People in hosptial atm. I would still like to know how many went in, how many were discharged.

Hopefully i have got to grips with this data now.
So i made a rough questimate of how many in hosptial on the gov graphs that chaz links and this is around 20,000 atm

This compares with 30,000 in France yesterday.

So around 10,000 in hospital.

I have an android, it's part of the health app

I mean 10,000 less. Now i will shut up and carry on lurking!

Where I am they've set up a drive through covid triage, only accessible via gp referral, but hopefully a sign that they are continuing to look at refining hospital admissions routes.

I don’t think smart phone apps are that reliable for testing for hypoxia (see below).

It is easy enough to buy a pulse oximeter and not that expensive (I have, just in case).

www.cebm.net/covid-19/question-should-smartphone-apps-be-used-as-oximeters-answer-no/

I did too Larry- I wanted to be able to fire pulse/oxygen sats etc at them and quote NICE recommendations!

A medical pulse oximeter is obviously better. But I would use the smart phone app as an adjunct to "are they blue?"

That's interesting Humphries, I would have thought there should be more in hospital in the UK (bigger population, behind the curve by about a week).

Did you manage to compare numbers in ICU?

Argos are selling a pulse oximeter for £20 which works even on children over 4, I have one as we have several asthmatics in this house.

I was meant to be tested, but the drive through location was too far outside the city, we don't drive and there was no public transport to that location. No taxi would take me. They could have set it up more locally but chose not to.

Medcram have some interesting videos on covid 19 potential treatment, talks about UV light.

It references this tracker which details US cases in more detail.

Also good discussion on asymptomatic cases, cases in population, immunity and antibody production .

@pocketem I quoted the BBC to give an English language source here

Germany has no particular reason to point fingers at Japan - they are regarded as a warning about the risk of a 2nd wave,
now that we are starting to relax lockdown from tomorrow

Don't let politics blind you in comparing countries
A virus doesn't care if your govt is left, right, or centre

As I posted, major criteria for a country doing well / badly include:
. the health system coping with the number of patients
. extensive testing & isolating program to avoid the number of cases rising exponentially

Japan did well initially, relaxed

• and is now having a 2nd wave without having prepared for those 2 criteria

It is still early enough for them to slam on the brakes and also to better organise their health resources
but if they don't start testing they could be in deep trouble

Face masks and Vit D only get you so far

Before the UK lifts lockdown, the govt needs to have organised a massive increase in testing
The virus doesn't give a shit about budgets

Otherwise - assuming COVID doesn't disappear in Trump's "sudden miracle" the 2nd wave could bring carnage

Testing is not an optional extra, for a govt to decide if they can afford it:

Germany has massive spare capacity still in its health service and about 1/5 the UK total deaths,
but Merkel would not have been able to start relaxing measures without the massive testing here,
of 500,000 per week and being boosted.

Merkel warned us that exponential growth would overwhelm even our health system by October, If R0 rises from its present 1.0 / just under to 1.1

Testing is the early warning she'll have to slam on the breaks

• waiting that extra week or two before people come into hospital is too dangerous with exponential growth ... especially if most people need to be near death's door to be admitted to hospital in the UK

@Humphriescushion numbers in hospital in the UK compared to other countries are near meaningless. We just aren't hospitalising until it's too late. I say that as someone with severe underlying conditions who has highly suspected covid and pneumonia right now. Following from bed! I know under normal circs or in another country I would have been in hospital for the last couple of weeks and should have been on oxygen at a few points in the illness. But we are leaving people at home too long. That's why our hospital numbers are low.

@NewAccountForCorona
There are currently just under 6000 in intensive care/ resuitation ( i am taking the figure for reanimation). I am not sure where to find figures for this is the uk. This was a crucial figure for france and needed to be carefully watched.

I have attached the data ( in french but not too difficult) . This is the data i want for the uk.

Thanks quarantine, yes i understand and i agree. i think i just want clear data in no.s. I use france as an example because i have been tracking frances figures for new addmissions, no.s discharged, no.s in intensive care, deaths, etc. This has really helped me and has been quite and accurate guide of how france was doing. I just want these figures for the uk so i can do the same.

QuarantineQUeen 💐
That's disgraceful and distressing for you;
do you at least receive doctor / nurse home visits for monitoring & treatment ?

It is sensible to treat mild COVID cases at home, to avoid infection risk at hospital, but not when there are breathing difficulties

The German "Coronataxis" treat fever, coughs, headaches etc at home and monitor blood O2, BP, heart
However, pneumonia cases, low O2 cases or deterioration of other readings are taken early into hospital

Quarantinequeen I hope you start to improve and are over the worst. England's strategy of leaving people at home until the last minute seems to explain the 'success' of ICUs not being overwhelmed and also sadly the discrepancy between daily hospital deaths and the ONS figures. I've been advised to shield and I think if it came to it, I'd ask my husband to drop me off at the door of A&E. Grim planning.

The problem of course is that from the beginning in the UK "mild" has included those with pneumonia. Whereas people who develop viral pneumonia with seasonal flu are considered to be seriously ill. It makes no sense.

I wonder if there is any sort of correlation between healthcare spending and deaths. Obviously the US has the most expensive healthcare system in the world, so not there....

@BigChocFrenzy it has been dire. At first I was told I couldn't even speak to my GP, all covid symptoms were redirected to 111. Then I got put through to a 111 manager who circumvented that and contacted my practice to let them know I needed to speak with them because I'm high risk. I've phoned them 4 times and they have been reassuring but it's my initiative to phone - I don't get checked on like news articles suggest might.
Absolutely no home visits, no face to face assessment on grounds of infection risk. I've seen no one and had no tests. No one has taken my O2 sats, BP, bloods or tested for covid. Because I have severe asthma I can test lung function and I have pneumonia recurrently and I know what it feels like so they have relied on that. I'm lucky that my GP trusts my judgement and she was frustrated that she wasn't allowed to admit me for an assessment anywhere. They decided it had probably turned bacterial based on how long it lasted and I've had two lots of antibiotics (resistant to the first, second lot worked).
At one point my breath was at 50% of what it should be and I was losing consciousness coughing. We phoned for help and I was put in a triage queue. 3 hours later I got a callback and was told because I wasn't turning blue and had recovered consciousness and was breathing a bit better by then I had to stay at home. I could tell the medic on the line wasn't comfortable telling me that but had to and he kept saying 'but come straight in if it gets worse, tell your husband, bring you in any deterioration'.
I genuinely feel like despite the best efforts of HCPs the system in the UK has been set up in a way that leaves people at home to die quietly out the way.
I'm now still not at all well. I don't know what permanent damage it has done and there is no follow up. Because I havent been tested so I dont even know it it was covid, it has just been assumed it was, so I now have to shield.

@Edujaded they are refusing entry to a&e without a referral

Quarantine Queen - would you be able to say which area you are in? I find that absolutely shocking! I hope it's not a nation wide policy....

Jesus Christ, QuarantineQueen
If I told anyone that here, I don't think they'd believe me

Health / hospital stats for Germany

Recent doctor / hospital statements that pandemic is under control < crosses fingers >
and that they have sufficient PPE

144,000 cases
88,000 recovered (61 % - recovery can take a looong time)
4,500 dead
51,000 active

of whom
48,300 "mild" (at home or in non-ICU wards)
2,900 serious (in ICU)
of whom
2,180 mechanically ventialated

ICU discharge stats:
4,436 alive (70%)
1,929 died (30%)

Medical Staff

7,043 cases of staff working in hospitals, outpatient clinics & practices, dialysis clinics or outpatient nursing services.

72% were female and 28% male.
Median age was 42 years.

286 staff required hospitalisation
11 dead
Frontline health staff in every country are heroic

Interesting. Do you have the stats for how many discharged from icu were mechanically ventilated?

I don't want to say where I am but looking at other threads on here my experience is not unusual across the UK. I am in an area with only a moderate amount of cases though. The hospital is not full.