Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

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Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

596 is the lowest UK figures we’ve had for a long long time - at least it feels like it!

I think they are often lower figures at the weekend and Mondays, but it looks positive

Yes, significantly down from last Sunday when it was in the 700s

Yes, even allowing for the weekend dip, that figure is encouraging.

But we must still keep our distance

Not admitting people to hospital until they are blue and losing consciousness presumably is useful to the govt for two reasons. 1) they don’t overcrowd hospitals with people that potentially could get through it at home, and 2) If people do die at home they may not have Covid on death cert or count towards the death stat, which makes it look better for our numbers. I feel like I must be wrong, this must be some weird kind of anti govt conspiracy and really their positive spin on everything is true, because to not believe this is too scary, but I fear I’m right.

I meant between the daily reported figures and the later release of ONS figures for total deaths registered as occuring in the same period where covid is listed. Some of this is just reporting delay/lag, but shows that the daily reported totals are lower than reality by a good chunk

"Including deaths that occurred up to 3 April but were registered up to 11 April, the number involving COVID-19 was 6,235.

For deaths that occurred up to 3 April, the comparative number of death notifications reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on GOV.UK for England and Wales was 4,093."

see here www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparisonofweeklydeathoccurrencesinenglandandwales/uptoweekending3april2020#comparisons

I'm cynical about the numbers. I can't but think that more people are dying in care homes and at home on the basis they won't survive and so no point admitting them to hospital. Unfortunately we won't ever know now as no testing has been properly carried out in care homes or in the community and it's impossible to get an accurate number anymore.

The figures will come out when the ONS figures are compared the The average over the previous five years. There is no benefit to covering them up.

In Ireland they are starting this week with testing every single care home resident (and staff) in the country.

Surely CV19 will be found post mortem? So care home figures will eventually catch up (assuming most care home residents won't have been seen by a GP in the last couple of weeks.)

Big that's an excellent summarisation re our governments and basically democratic governments. I was aware countries were dictatorships and have heard about internet blocks etc but I've had my eyes opened wide to just how autocratic counties run through this. I know it's governments job to know but it must be hard to completely believe the countries you deal with have no morality whatsoever and they must have to have some trust just for the basic running of the world.

Trump is a dick (imo!) but perhaps it's time for Europe to look at what industries we start to specialise in to create less dependence on the autocratic countries.

I think there is some sort of exemption for post-mortem's these days. I'll try to find the link (it's somewhere back in this thread or the last).

I think for the last lot of ONS figures GPS were still requesting PMs. I certainly know of several, expected, non CV deaths that had. PM because of not seeing a GP- so probably a lag for those people.

I think there is new guidance now.

I know today's figures are better, but we're still only about 500 behind Italy at a similar stage and they're still rising.

What would be a positive sign, enough for changes to be made to lockdown etc?

Teabaseddiet I don't understand what you mean ?

I read we govt guidance for Covid not needing to be put on death cert, something like pneumonia could be used as a non Covid term for effectively Covid. Can’t remember where I saw it though to link.

Italy 2 weeks ago 525

@hopefulhalf It feels to me that almost 600 hospital deaths is still a lot. Italy is now at the £23k+ mark and they were in a similar position at a similar stage.

Some people seem to celebrate the lower numbers, which is fine, but it's far from the end. Are we not getting ahead of ourselves to do this?

This is obviously tragic but within medical staff the mortality was 0.15 % I think this is likely to be close to the true mortality, although probrably excludes those 70+.

Even with a plateau/fall it's still a long haul, because many people are falling ill and many of the people in ITU will take a long time to recover and sadly may die. It's still better than continuing to rise though.

Yes we are following Italy very closely, although likely to end up with a higher total.

I think I didn't understand when you said only 500 behind Italy at a similar stage. The comparision is 596 vs 525 so not behind at all

But a fall or clear plateau is positive sign , it suggests what we are going through will be worth it, and that there is a chance something better soonish , it's hope if we keep going.

@hopefulhalf I meant total overall, from the figures I've seen the Italian total at around this point was ~500 higher than our current total - I think.

I hope this is a plateau. Are they likely to add the nursing home/non-hospital CV deaths at any point do you think?