Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Sorry, posted the link, not the contents BREAKING: 784 more Covid19+ deaths in English hospitals. BUT the weeky runnung daily AVERAGE has now fallen for five consecutive days [776 on 13 April to 712 today]

888 deaths in U.K. overall

"that's why between 20% and 40% of people who contract Covid-19 quickly end up in ICU"

Surely that many do not end up in ICU

More on sickle cell trait for those interested:

Anyone can have sickle cell trait but it is most common in people whose family origin is Black African, Black Caribbean or Black British. It also occurs in people who originate from the Middle East, India and Eastern Mediterranean areas. In other populations, sickle cell trait is unusual but can occur. Around 240,000 people in the UK estimated to carry the gene (SCT) ref.

Gender differences in sickle cell disease, males more likely to have crises post puberty due to possible protective effect of oestrogen and differences in nitric oxide production (dilates blood vessels).

Sickle cell trait worsens symptoms of type 2 diabetes

That video about high altitude sickness was interesting too, thanks to whomever posted it. I had heard too that comparison was being drawn.

I also came across really interesting information about trials of IV vitamin C for sepsis and covid 19, but the video below explains exchange across the alveolar membrane and problems with increasing fluid in the lung really well so worth a look . Although I should point out that studies are still ongoing on whether vitamin C in high dose IV form is actually of benefit, there is a lot of debate.

I am not medical or biological either and know nothing.

I am curious about the number of new cases. Clearly if we are increasing testing but getting the same number of positives, the actual number of infections is decreasing. Is this happening?

It strikes me that the hospital data is the most reliable (number of Covid patients in hospitals). Is this a daily release or are people putting it together personally on spreadsheets from various pieces of data? I see the FT are doing it.

It is one of the graphs they show in the briefings

@borntobequiet
„If small children are resistant, what happens as they grow up to make them less resistant?“
It’s ACE2 expression that changes. Coronaviruses enter the cell through the ACE2 receptor. Children have lower vulnerability on a cellular level. Men have much more.

Interesting 123bananas, thank you.

@Jrobhatch29 I wonder if he (Dr Lippi, Prof. of Clinical Biochemistry in Verona) meant 20-40% of those hospitalised end up in ICU, rather than those who contract it, otherwise it seems terribly high.
I would be interested to understand more about the implications of IGM and IGG for long-term immunity.

Completely incorrect that "20% - 40% end up in ICU".

I read somewhere right at the start 20 % need hospital care of those 20% need ICU so 5% of total.

"20% - 40% of those hospitalised end up in ICU" is quite possibly what happened in Lombardy

Hers a hypothesis, with the usual, not medical, not biology background.
Vitamin D seems to be a powerful protector- hats would explain the slow infection rates in the Antipodes and- touch wood- Africa so far. The returning skiers seemed to have very mild symptoms, ditto the cruisers, the impact was when they got home and introduced it the ‘coming out of Northern hempishere pasty population’ maybe the much maligned mythical sunbathers hs a point. Certainly there’s little harm in getting some Vitamin D from April sun.

www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/coronavirus-where-you-live-check-the-number-of-cases-in-your-area-with-our-interactive-map/

has this been linked before?

Also linked to age is neutrophil infiltration and lung injury due to the pulmonary inflammatory response.

anesthesiology.pubs.asahq.org/article.aspx?articleid=2288842#x2013;408

annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13613-019-0529-4

@Cherryghost you can download my updated spreadsheet

gofile.io/?c=XKliyw

and check for yourself

Two dropdowns cells B1 and B2 to filter by region and/or Trust.

Two trends I'm seeing (nationally) seems to be an increased efficiency of reporting of deaths on the day of death, as well as something of a plateau slightly below 8 April peak. It's hard to be sure about final death totals because of likely reporting improvements over time.... However we definitely don't have a big drop in deaths. Probably some of these are some of the lingering 'no underlying conditions' who have been hanging around for weeks and now dying? So the death rates can be falling quite slowly even while the corresponding infection rates (around 3 weeks ago) were falling fast.

As far as the NW goes, the peak was 7 April rather than 8 April and since then a similar plateau

Do take my dotted line with a pinch of salt, as the stacks underneath are the true numbers, so we don't know if the stack will ever reach the dot (it has already reached the stack, obviously).

NW is slightly worse than England as a whole - around 275 per million deaths.

In general anywhere urban, e.g., Manchester, is going to be bad and rural areas aren't, however the Lake District (Morecambe, Kendal, Barrow, Lancaster hospitals)seems to be doing much worse than North Cumbria (Carlisle, Whitehaven, Penrith).

@Etinox
UK study underway.
Lots of data here. Some of it quite astonishing:

www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19%20and%20Vitamin%20D%20Information.pdf?dl=0

They need evidence and very high statistical significance, hence the delay from Public Health England regarding the disproportionate deaths of BAME.

Sorry to place mark like this, but my 'watching' and 'bookmark' options dont seem to be working properly!

@Etinox

All I can say is that I have read a few tweets coming from frontline US doctors and they have reported low vit D blood serum levels in most covid 19 ICU patients. Of course that's not enough, you also need to test shed loads of asymptomatic/mild cases.

All I can say is that I have read a few tweets coming from frontline US doctors and they have reported low vit D blood serum levels in most covid 19 ICU patients. Of course that's not enough, you also need to test shed loads of asymptomatic/mild cases.

Similarly, there was a report from the University of Turin in March that noted extremely low Vitamin D levels in patients hospitalised with Covid-19. The authors recommended Vitamin D especially for vulnerable people, healthcare workers, people testing positive and their families.
Lots of people in Italy are lacking in Vitamin D though, especially the elderly, and it wasn't a proper study. Correlation v causation needs investigating.

@Etinox

Author has added this text in the last few days;

Call for data: we ask ICUs to test serum levels, add D3 to treatment plans, measure outcomes and report. Please also measure 25(OH)D serum levels in post mortem examinations up to 10 days after death, especially in cases with no apparent comorbidities. Early clinical evidence will support clinical trial applications. Please Test, Treat, Measure, Report.

Re: Vit D and testing for low levels. Isn't this just confirming what we already know. In the Northern Hemisphere we are low in Vit D at the end of the Winter. The timing of the virus means everyone will be low surely?

Correlation v causation
Good point Lee Millar - couldn't strong sunlight both destroy a fragile virus and give good Vit D levels?

Not to say Vit D wouldn't help in combating infection, may be both?

Are the numbers actually dropping? It doesn’t seem like it to say we’ve been lockdown for 3 weeks now.