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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

999 replies

Barracker · 15/04/2020 20:28

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
borntobequiet · 18/04/2020 16:14

Thanks @GirlCalledJames

MillicentMartha · 18/04/2020 16:52

www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/timeline-how-coronavirus-cases-multiplied-4048463

Just out of interest, this graph is of cases in the south west areas on 13/4 and shows how Gloucestershire cases are much higher than the rest, even higher than Bristol which is much more densely populated. Obviously the Cheltenham races did seem to have an affect.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
hopefulhalf · 18/04/2020 16:55

Plateauing

MillicentMartha · 18/04/2020 16:58

*effect

MillicentMartha · 18/04/2020 16:59

Yes, the plateauing looks clear as well.

MillicentMartha · 18/04/2020 17:06

Though at 825 total cases in Glos yesterday, it doesn’t seem to have maintained that plateau.

Cherryghost · 18/04/2020 17:09

@shootsfruitandleaves thanks for the reply but I can't get the spreadsheet to load.
Does it breakdown Tameside and Stockport deaths on the spreadsheet as I'd be very interested in these figures if you could post a picture thanks

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 17:40

I remember arguing with some MN posters before Cheltenham & Crufts who were very insistent that such events should not be cancelled because of the damage to small businesses and SE people....

I wonder how they are doing now

hopefulhalf · 18/04/2020 17:48

825 is too high for such a rural area. That is likely to represent 10% ish of the "real cases" so 8,250.

WhyNotMe40 · 18/04/2020 17:48

I live not too far from Cheltenham, and know several people who attended the festival as planned as it was "just a flu".
Several were poorly.
2 ended up in hospital.
There have been 10 more deaths today according to the Gloucestershire Live website

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 17:50

Silent spreaders can be divided into three categories:
asymptomatic, presymptomatic and very mildly symptomatic

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/13/831883560/can-a-coronavirus-patient-who-isnt-showing-symptoms-infect-others?t=1587104953048

Asymptomatic: people who carry the active virus in their body but never develop any symptoms
"Nothing at all," says Tara C. Smith, an epidemiologist at Kent State University's College of Public Health. "No fever, no gastrointestinal issues, no breathing issues, no coughing, none of that."
.....
For those who tested positive without symptoms, follow-up exams confirmed that about 25% continued to show no signs,
World Health Organization officials said on April 1, citing data from China.
......
Presymptomatic: people who have been infected and are incubating the virus but don't yet show symptoms
After infection, symptoms might not develop for five to six days — or even two weeks,
according to the Annals of Internal Medicinee^.
The time between catching the virus and showing symptoms is called the presymptomatic phase.
....
Very mildly symptomatic: people who feel a little unwell from a COVID-19 infection but continue to come in close contact with others
"We're very lucky that this isn't a severe infection for everyone, but because of that, some people feel a little sick and power through,"
says Seema Lakdawala, a flu researcher at the University of Pittsburgh.
Spreading COVID-19 while having a cough or very mild fever doesn't fully count as silent transmission,
says Bansal, the infectious disease modeler:
"There's some signal there at least."

QuentinWinters · 18/04/2020 17:58

I think a number of schools in Cheltenham/Gloucestershire were on ski trips in N Italy at the start of the outbreak too, which won't have helped

QuentinWinters · 18/04/2020 17:58

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/two-gloucestershire-schools-joint-ski-3935802.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjmwbTeuPLoAhW0kFwKHak-CYgQFjAAegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw32Y_Y5GMxkpDG7sMsOsVV7&ampcf=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/two-gloucestershire-schools-joint-ski-3935802.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjmwbTeuPLoAhW0kFwKHak-CYgQFjAAegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw32Y_Y5GMxkpDG7sMsOsVV7&ampcf=1

WhyNotMe40 · 18/04/2020 18:04

Quite.
The problem was the schools couldn't cancel until the government advised against travel to Italy, - they would have had to refund parents themselves from school funds. And of course lots of parents would have protested cancellation and kicked up a fuss.

loobyloo1234 · 18/04/2020 18:11

Are the numbers actually dropping? It doesn’t seem like it to say we’ve been lockdown for 3 weeks now.

Yes I think they are. The lag is much more extreme in terms of recording deaths than I think most realise. I’ve screenshotted this from The Guardian for today’s numbers as an example

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
cantkeepawayforever · 18/04/2020 18:51

I think the issue with Cheltenham - much more than Crufts, or other events happening at that time - is how long it goes on for, and the sheer number of people involved in housing, feeding and providing drink for the crowds, not only in the racecourse, but also in the town, over a period of a week.

My impression is that the organisers naively looked at the risks of 'the time spent in the venue, and paid lip service to mitigting it in the form of hand sanitising stations etc, but gave no thought whatever to the risks outside the racecourse itself. Those working in bars, pubs, hotels, policing the streets etc, who will mainly have lived within Glopucestershire but perhaps not in the town itself, will then have spread the virus to surrounding areas of the county.

AFAIK, Crufts isn't surrounded by quite the same level of heavy partying outside the venue... but I may be wrong!

NewAccountForCorona · 18/04/2020 18:55

They had an interesting graph on the RTE website - linked on Craicnet by Barbarara, thanks Smile www.rte.ie/news/2020/0418/1132271-deaths-covid-holohan/ -showing that the peak in Ireland may well have been on 7th April. Although daily numbers quoted since have been a little higher, these relate, like in the UK, to slightly out of date figures will full numbers lagging a few days behind.

Dr Holohan is usually very cautious -if he is indicating, even with caveats, that we may be past peak we may actually be.

The other interesting point is that the biggest number outside Dublin is in Co Cavan. Cavan is (relatively) sparsely populated with no main urban areas. But apparently half of Cavan was in Cheltenham Hmm

SummerSazz · 18/04/2020 18:58

I live near Cheltenham and had tickets for the festival. We didn't go as I'd been reading threads on MN since Jan. lots of my work people did go and I've not heard of any direct cases but they would have gone home and maybe not been in the 'pool' or germs in the pub. My children's school bus (public) starts in Cheltenham and I drove them to school after the festival....

randomnewname1 · 18/04/2020 19:12

Public Health England is to start recording coronavirus cases and deaths by ethnicity, BBC News understands.

Coronavirus cases to be tracked by ethnicity www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 19:37

We may have to add on 50% to that 15,000 death toll:

7,500 feared to have died with coronavirus in care homes

www.itv.com/news/2020-04-18/7-500-feared-to-have-died-with-coronavirus-in-care-homes/

StatisticallyChallenged · 18/04/2020 19:52

The ONS stats would have suggested needing to add about 50% too

StrawberryJam200 · 18/04/2020 19:53

Gosh. Does that tie in with estimates made previously, can't recall??

Comenext · 18/04/2020 20:03

@LWJ70
I am sure your figures are correct:
All I can say is that I have read a few tweets coming from frontline US doctors and they have reported low vit D blood serum levels in most covid 19 ICU patients.
But I think these patients have been ill for a while either at home or in hospital before they reach the ICU stage. Would that period indoors be enough to lower their Vitamin D levels?

NewAccountForCorona · 18/04/2020 20:20

Another 50% in care homes.

What about people who died in their actual homes; those for whom the ambulances were too late, or old people who didn't call ambulances at all? When do those get added in? I presume at the ONS stage, presuming the doctor/undertaker records the death as Covid.