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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

999 replies

Barracker · 15/04/2020 20:28

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
Ereshkigalangcleg · 18/04/2020 12:20

It's cumulative I think, without looking.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 12:22

Jrob This is the entire section on Italy, then they go to unrelated news from other countries

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-only-10-of-italians-have-antibodies-xf7rfxlcq

Only about 10 per cent of Italians have developed coronavirus antibodies, meaning that herd immunity is far from being reached and the concept of “immunity passports” is unrealisable,

a senior Italian official said.

“To get herd immunity, about 80 per cent of the population need to have been in contact with the virus, so that target is far off,”

Silvio Brusaferro, the head of Italy’s national health institute, said.

The idea of allowing the holders of an immunity passport to return to work has been proposed by experts, but with so few eligible, the idea appears a non-starter.

That has not stopped numerous Italian regional governments, which have autonomous control over healthcare,
from launching their own antibody bloodtesting programmes,
while the national government is also planning to launch its own scheme.

One expert warned that antibody testing is still unreliable.

"We tested 100 people who had had the virus, and should have antibodies, but according to the results only 30 to 40 per cent did,”
Andrea Crisanti, an Italian virus expert at Padua University, said.

On Thursday, Italy registered 525 deaths over the previous 24 hours, taking the total to 22,170,
the second highest death toll in the world after the US.

Jrobhatch29 · 18/04/2020 12:28

@BigChocFrenzy thank you, so a mixture of both.
10% isnt very high but does that imply 6 million have been exposed? It may not mean much for herd immunity but it does suggest the mortality rate is lower?

B1rdbra1n · 18/04/2020 12:40

Surely it is conceivable that, in addition to some having developed antibodies, there will be others who are genetically not susceptible to the virus?

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 18/04/2020 12:44

'Today 12:40 B1rdbra1n

Surely it is conceivable that, in addition to some having developed antibodies, there will be others who are genetically not susceptible to the virus?'

Yes, or a combination of genetic and other factors (diet, exposure to pollution for eg). Lots to unpick!

randomnewname1 · 18/04/2020 12:44

That's interesting @SummerSazz.

It's not a cure and may only help some people's reactions but who knows, perhaps it's going to be part of the bigger picture.

I know it comes across as a bit click bait but I found her reasoning logical.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 12:45

"So 6 out of 6 states with bad covid-19 death totals have Democrat governors."

For Trump apologists :

London and other areas with large cities / high population density have done badly in the UK too
and the UK has one of the most centralised governments & power of all democracies, controlling urban and rural areas alike.

COVID hit the urban areas, with the most international connections - mostly Democrat - first and worst.
Unless the infection spread is stopped, it will hit the rural Republican areas too

States have a lot of power to e.g. impose "stay home" orders,
but Trump is now goading his supporters into heavily armed demonstrations to try to intimidate politicians and people into ending lockdown

That is shamelessly for his own political advantage,
to whip up anger against the economic consequences of stopping the exponential growth of infection

Trump has made many terrible decisions, e.g.

Claiming that COVID was a Democrat hoax to stop his reelection and hence doing nothing for several weeks

Using Federal stores for his own grudges, withheld to punish his opponents and governors who don't show "gratitude"

Savagely cutting federal organisations that now have to combat COVID

Abolishing the WH Pandemic Office, because it was set up by Obama,
whom he bitterly hates
Trump is a lifelong racist, who has tried to wipe out everything Obama has done

Yahoo Finance@YahooFinance

Highlight:
"You did disband the White House pandemic office... what responsibility do you take to that?"

President Trump:
^"I just think it's a nasty question... You say we did that. I don't know anything about that."

Al1Langdownthecleghole · 18/04/2020 12:49

Bigchoc that data is collected after discharge / death when the diagnosis are coded.

I'm not sure how much delay there is in the current system, due to staff shortages & acute patients taking priority over admin, but there should be some April data in early May with adjustments in mid May. Again, this will be for discharged patients though.

randomnewname1 · 18/04/2020 12:53

A small proportion of humans show partial or apparently complete inborn resistance to HIV, the virus that causes AIDS.

There's a "Derbyshire gene" which was revealed by the village of Eyam during the Black Death. They cut themselves off completely and most died apart from a few. CCR5 mutation.

Iirc the gene they identified linked to that was somehow used in the recent case of a second man who has now been cured of hiv thanks to gene therapy.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16880184/

www.bbc.com/news/health-51804454

www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/mystery-black-death-clues-evidence/1490/

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 18/04/2020 12:58

Big Choc i wasn't really trying to discuss Trump's personality flaws , but rather wondering in the US system where the responsibility lies. Especially with New York was the worst hit location in the world. Clearly it makes sense politically for the Republicans to blame Cuomo. There was some talk a month ago about him being a replacement for Biden, but that surely seems unlikely now, with such terrible outcomes?

randomnewname1 · 18/04/2020 12:58

Actually that older article, pre the proven use of gene therapy curing hiv, is v interesting. The gene was found in the descendants of European areas where the Black Death was rife, such as Eyam.

Native Africans did not have delta 32 at all,” O’Brien says, “and when we looked at East Asians and Indians, they were also flat zero.” In fact, the levels of delta 32 found in Eyam were only matched in regions of Europe that had been affected by the plague and in America, which was, for the most part, settled by European plague survivors and their descendants.

Another possible part of the bigger jigsaw.

whatsnext2 · 18/04/2020 13:00

There are two main forms of immune response :

  1. Innate. This is nonspecific and involves the inflammatory response, which in some individuals can go too far and result in the cytokine storm and other complications we have heard about. However this response does not involve the production of antibodies so cannot be tested for and the best diagnosis is through X ray of lungs etc.
  2. Adaptive: this is where the white blood cells produce specific proteins, antibodies, to combat specific pathogens. This is what the tests are for.

Both responses will prevent infection but only type can be be tested for, thus relying on this for viral spread through a population where innate resistance is significant may result in false conclusions.

Edujaded · 18/04/2020 13:06

Cuomo explains very clearly where the responsibility lies in the briefing which Trump was responding to live through Twitter:

www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-gov-cuomo-lashes-out-at-trump-after-president-posts-critical-tweets-during-cuomos-coronavirus-briefing-2020-04-17

It seems the federal government have been deliberately obstructive.

Derbygerbil · 18/04/2020 13:08

... thank you, so a mixture of both.
10% isnt very high but does that imply 6 million have been exposed? It may not mean much for herd immunity but it does suggest the mortality rate is lower?

But.... ”We tested 100 people who had had the virus, and should have antibodies, but according to the results only 30 to 40 per cent did,”

Piecing the two together, doesn’t that imply 25-30% have been exposed? I appreciate it may not be that simple!

WhyNotMe40 · 18/04/2020 13:28

No it is saying 100% of the people tested, but only 30% ish of those combatted the virus using antibodies. Which is generally what is needed for immunity and vaccines.

WhyNotMe40 · 18/04/2020 13:29

100% were exposed

larrygrylls · 18/04/2020 13:42

Whynot,

If some people can combat the virus without producing antibodies, one would assume that they never develop a high viral load and, thus, are never highly infectious.

If the rest of the population is immunisable, this may well still confer herd immunity.

If course, the devil is in the detail, as in the actual R0 number, how infectious are those who are not very sick, duration of infectious period etc etc.

Even in a worst case scenario, getting a large proportion of the population immunised would mean minimal social distancing was required to get R0 below 1 and for the infection (at least in the short term) to die out.

Jrobhatch29 · 18/04/2020 13:44

I dont get it lol. So 10% of the general public had antibodies? But only 30-40% of confirmed cases had antibodies?

WhyNotMe40 · 18/04/2020 13:45

Larry I'm not medical but that's not how I've been reading it - I may be wrong.
I heard that the 2 different responses are 1 - antibodies.
2 - inflammation and killer cells.
I'm not sure what relation viral load and infectiousness has to the second body response.

WhyNotMe40 · 18/04/2020 13:48

Where did the 10% of population having antibodies come from? I must have missed that. I thought studies showed about 2-
4%

LeeMiller · 18/04/2020 13:56

Only about 10 per cent of Italians have developed coronavirus antibodies The latest figures I've seen on sierological testing in the Italian press:

  • San Martino hospital in Genova: sierological tests on several thousand asymptomatic people in Liguria and Lombardia have found antibodies in over 10% and "towards 15%, and with signs that lead us to think the percentage could be higher"
rep.repubblica.it/pwa/intervista/2020/04/15/news/test_sierologici_gia_immune_quasi_il_15_delle_persone-254124172/

The first results on tests on 2000 people in Robio (Pavia) on 910 people aged 4-89 found 100 tested positive for covid-19 and another 100 had Igg (98) or Igg and Igm (2) antibodies.
Many positive cases were people with light symptoms or asymptomatic cases. The figure of 22% having or having had Covid-19 is 10x higher than the official figure of 20 cases in the area (tot. population 6000).
www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/a-robbio-pv-il-22-ha-o-ha-avuto-il-coronavirus-ok-del-sindaco-ai-test-per-tutti_17285128-202002a.shtml

Jrobhatch29 · 18/04/2020 14:05

@WhyNotMe40 its in the times today that 10% of italians have antibodies (im assuming random sample of population) . They also tested 100 people who were confirmed cases and only 30-40% of them had antibodies.

LeeMiller · 18/04/2020 14:09

University of Padova study - results on 600 people: 60% men and 40% women aged 30 - 90, 300 hospital staff (Padova) and 300 hospitalised patients Verona.
Initial results indicate 100% dei soggetti, show presence of IGG, like at Padova, but only 60% of patients (and 80% staff sample) have developed IGM.
It adds "that's why between 20% and 40% of people who contract Covid-19 quickly end up in ICU - since they don't have an inital immune response, the illness immediately progresses to the more advanced stage. 5% of sick patients without IGM are hit by a citochine storm..." corrieredelveneto.corriere.it/veneto/politica/20_aprile_17/coronavirus-ufficiali-risultati-600-test-sierologici-pazienti-immunizzati-0cc76492-8087-11ea-86bd-3c90f4fa0182.shtml

larrygrylls · 18/04/2020 14:09

Whynot,

I am not medical or biological either but it seems to me that either the virus is eliminated quickly (with few rounds of replication and, thus, low viral load or it is eventually defeated by either the humoral response or the cell-mediated response.

Both of these responses will produce long term ‘memory’ cells, so that a person cannot be reinfected.

The short, linked, explanation below seems to explain it clearly.

It would be interested to see an actual virologist’s take on this but I have not read of any who do not believe in the possibility of herd immunity either through mass infection or via inoculation.

www.lehigh.edu/~jas0/V09.html

Al1Langdownthecleghole · 18/04/2020 14:12

twitter.com/hsjeditor/status/1251497953287639046?s=21

Just seen with today's figures