Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Carrie/InkPaper - I was reading that as 6 points for being over 80, 2 points for being "well" and they each have an underlying condition - diabetes/previous heart problems, bring them up to 9 or 10 and putting them into group 2 or possibly 3.

That decision tool pretty much excludes all 80+ year olds from ICU care - and I don't mean intubation, but admission to ICU at all.

Thank you for the press conference slides, Chaz.

It does look as though hospital numbers are stabilising or even reducing; I would like to see more people in hospital earlier if the beds are now available.

It does loom like our cases have levelled the past week rather than hitting a peak as such.
Interesting graphs above showing how south easy and london have decelerated. SE you would hope/expect as they were the first place to record high numbers of infections but London is great news.

thanks Chaz

I'm south east and many of my friends that where able too were working from home two weeks before lockdown. My DH company big pharma was so panicked they insisted on work from home I'm very early March.

I'm SE too, in London commuter belt, at my secondary school we were about 20% down on kids in the week before lockdown.

neuro a NE hospital trust/ccg I'm involved with said earlier this week their modelling was now predicting peak this weekend....

Ah ok, that info was 3 weeks ago! Looking at numbers it went up pretty quickly round here after that.

I'm more south in SE region. My county 'topped the league tables' so to speak for cases for about 3/4 weeks. I was very aware beginning of March how high cases were and I agree many places had already stepped up by the first week.

London here too, my social circle was distancing three weeks before lockdown, and I stopped using public transport. None of us caught it yet.

Furlough extended to the end of June. So expensive. I didn’t expect that.

yep neuro I hadn't checked my local stats for a few days and did tonight and was quite shocked at the jump since last time I checked... did freak me out for a moment

@NeurotrashWarrior

Ah ok, that info was 3 weeks ago! Looking at numbers it went up pretty quickly round here after that.

The fact your numbers went up quickly is irrelevant. Once you have lockdown, the peak doesn’t depend on your numbers, it depends on how effectively lockdown is adhered to.

Does anyone have a link for an NHS spreadsheet for hospital admissions, please ?

I'd like to see an age breakdown, but I only have a link to deaths

Derby, I wonder why they said mid May? As yes, lock down effects everywhere equally. (Doh!) Or was that guess based on pre lockdown stats? Which may have been the case.

Daily increases of cases admitted to hospital started to rise rapidly around the 29th March here (according to my list.)

I've been rootling around the NHS site linked to in the op hoping to find some sort of data round admissions by trust, but can't find anything up to date at all. Most of the statistical data on the site is historical.

Looking at the London Trusts date on the most recent "Covid Deaths" spreadsheet is very encouraging though - very few backdated figures, most seem pretty up to date and all are dropping as far as I can see.

Other areas of the UK are still high, but if London is dropping the other areas should soon follow I would have thought.

A study from California using antibody tests suggests infections up to 85x the known rate

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

"This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review"

If they are trying to suggest from that one US county that COVID generally has only a low death rate,
it's like that saying:

"instead of trying to convince me it's not raining, try looking out the the fucking window"

Its similar figures to the New York and Icelsnd studies though.
Its the bit of hope I'm desperately clinging to anyway.

Its similar figures to the New York and Icelsnd studies though.

Yes, the mortality rate of 0.4-0.5% is also consistent with:

• Gangelt - 0.37%:

www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

• UAE - 0.53%

www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/medical-experts-explain-uaes-high-covid-19-recovery-and-low-death-rates

• Faroe Islands - a small country but it tested 11% of its population, identified 184 of COVID cases and ended up with zero deaths, zero serious/ICU cases and one hospitalisation:

www.stevedalepetworld.com/blog/veterinarian-offers-one-health-solution-to-covid-19-spread-on-faroe-islands/

The primary danger with COVID appears to be its high / very high degree of contagion rather than the actual mortality rate.

The primary danger with COVID appears to be its high / very high degree of contagion rather than the actual mortality rate.

That's been my impression. It seems to be staggeringly contagious.
And a low mortality rate still adds up to an awful lot of people if everyone gets it.

Personal anecdote. I hardly ever catch things even when coughed all over (looking at you PILS). I think I've had covid despite barely being in contact with other people for weeks courtesy of a nice socially distant campervan trip.
One ferry trip later, ten days incubation there it was.
Ferry was full of returning half term ski trippers...

@wintertravel

Clicked on the UAE study hoping the article would be positive based on your headline but this dissipated when I get read:

"Most (expatriates) will leave the country by the age of 60. There is therefore only 1.5 per cent of residents aged 65 or more. Compare this with a country like the UK where the equivalent number is 18.2 per cent."

Dr Stanford explained if age is a factor then the current UAE Covid-19 death rate of 0.5 per cent adjusted to UK age would be 12 times more, that is, six per cent.”

The devil’s in the detail with these studies...

@wintertravel1980

The Gangelt study is interesting. It’s efficacy depends on the reliability of the antibody test. I wasn’t aware that there was such a reliable test yet... If the antibody test used in Gangelt is reliable, there will very soon be more studies to corroborate its findings.

Has anyone been following the outbreak on the Charles de Gaulle? 2300 service people (young fit healthy population), 1081 tested positive (so far), of those 545 are symptomatic, 24 requiring hospital care, 1 intensive care.