Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Yes i don't understand... I don't think there is am effective antibody test...

I followed the US aircraft carrier, posted above, only 1 fatality
60% of the infected had no symptoms - at the time

Like the Diamond Princess, on those 3 ships most people don't catch it at the time,
but are they naturally partly / wholly immune,
or will they catch it elsewhere over the next few months

Yes there’s an outbreak on the Theodore Roosevelt too ... similar sorts of numbers to the French ship but the US one has had a fatality. I suspect it’s a much younger/healthier demographic than the cruise ship cases.

It all depends how many end up catching it - and over what time period

Merkel early on warned of 70% being likely
The UK worst case was 80%

A fatality rate of 0.5% for 70% of the UK's 67 million is about 235,000 deaths
BUT
that 0.5% fatality rate assumes that those needing hospital treatement will get it

What % does it become if the NHS ceases to take in patients after say 10% of people have it - which will include NHS staff
5% ?

Back to the strategy of spreading out cases so that the NHS can cope,
i.e. social distancing

@shootsfruitandleaves do you have a graph for north west deaths and whether they are up or down please

I have read of a worst case scenario of 1 million deaths in Germany,
if this gets out of hand at some stage during the relaxation measures starting Monday

Exponential growth is terrifying, especially when the number of cases determines the death rate 2-4 weeks later

Merkel warned that R0 only needs to rise to 1.1 for even the German health service to be overwhelmed by October

However, lockdown for 1-2 years is not feasible, so she has to gradually restart the economy, then get ready to brake in time if cases rocket again.

Just a thought that popped into my head this evening re: BAME cases and deaths.

My DH is black and has sickle cell trait, under certain conditions such as low oxygen environments (high altitude), increased pressure (diving) and dehydration rarely people with the trait can have crises like that of sickle cell disease. As many as 3 million people in the USA have SCT and many are unaware that they carry the gene.

This paper seems to say that blood flow in sickle cell trait is oxygen dependent and viscosity becomes higher impairing blood flow in lower oxygen conditions.

I wonder if some of the BAME cases are undiagnosed SCT, severely impacted by low oxygen due to breathing difficulties associated with Covid-19.

That's a really interesting idea, 123

WOW !
1,290 deaths added retrospectively to Wuhan !

This changes a lot of comparisons - and assumptions

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT stats geek)

distributed in proportion to rest of deaths.
The info from Chinese sources today was that this was a retrospective revision, 🤔 not new deaths

If we get more info on actual dates, we’ll redistribute.

NEW: Fri 17 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths
• US & UK may be peaking,still too early to say
• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early => gentle slopes
• We’ve added >1000 deaths in China

Now cumulative deaths
• US death is highest worldwide and still rising fast
• UK curve still matching Italy’s
• Australia still looks promising
• China revision elevates its curve to match Germany’s

Now daily new cases:
• Feels increasingly safe to say daily confirmed infections in US have peaked
• UK is testing less, so less sure
• New cases falling in four countries that acted early: New Zealand (!), Australia, Norway, Austria
....
Subnational region daily deaths:
• We’ve added 1,290 deaths in Wuhan
• NY daily deaths peaking? (we’re excluding nursing homes for consistency)
• London may have passed peak deaths
• Texas added. Daily deaths trending up in many US states

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• Revised deaths in Wuhan shift its curve up to match London
• NY curve tapering, but has passed Lombardy for world’s highest subnational death toll



UK Hospitals

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch

• London’s hospitals now have fewer covid patients with each day

• Rate of increase slowing elsewhere across UK, and some other regions seeing net daily falls

• Suggests UK could be at or near peak for new infections

@BigChocFrenzy

• Australia still looks promising

I agree, especially when you consider that there is a log scale for the
y-axis cumulative deaths

@Derbygerbil

Yes, you are right - I should not have included UAE in my list. I was looking for countries with low C19 mortality rates outside of the known cases (e.g. Iceland, Gangelt) and UAE seemed to match the criteria. I have forgotten to check demographics of the population.

Re: antibody tests - some countries (definitely Germany and US) have really got relatively accurate (90%+) tests. They are not home testing kits, require in person presence and extensive blood testing and cannot yet be rolled out at a mass scale. Also while 90% accuracy may be useful for population level decisions, it is not sufficient for individual cases.

Listening to an excellent Oxford professor on R4 re vaccine. First human test here UK, testing efficacy over next few months. Positive words about vaccine task force set up by government.

With all the misses we’ve had (tests both kinds, PPE) it would be great if this was a success (understatement).

Early days but he was good to listen to.

123bananas. That's really interesting. I've not heard of SCT. But could be a link

@Derbygerbil the UK already has a high-accuracy antibody test and surveillance testing is being carried out at Porton Down. It will be interesting to see what results they come up with for the proportion of the UK already infected.

Marsh,

Is that Sarah Gilbert?

She does sound impressive and optimistic. However, as a board member of Vaccitech, she has considerable skin in the game. If the government order vaccines from them. she will make a considerable amount of money.

That does not mean what she says it is untrue but it is worth knowing.

Larry no it was quite good as it was someone else as she probably would be overly optimistic.

It was this guy, googled his name
Sir John Irving Bell GBE FRS FMedSci FREng is a Canadian immunologist and geneticist. From 2006 to 2011, he was President of the Academy of Medical Sciences, and since 2002 has held the Regius Chair of Medicine at the University of Oxford, UK.

Not sure of his involvement haven’t looked further

It's amusing to note that China's new fake numbers from Wuhan are exactly 50% higher than the old fake numbers.

At least in the West we make some effort with transparency when lives are being lost.

Oh hang on - Member of vaccine task force
At 8.14 this morning if anyone wants to listen back

Obviously efficacy a big deal, no matter how fast if trials show it doesn’t work it would be a crash.

The cruise ship and navy ship scenarios lend weight - at least to my mind - to the vitamin D theories.

Although the military personnel would mostly be young and fit, it is reasonable to assume that the Diamond Princess would have had a representation of older and obese passengers with co-morbidities such as diabetes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Fresh air, sunlight and good food seems to have had a positive effect. It will be really interesting to see the actual research into this in the months & years ahead.

• It's amusing to note that China's new fake numbers from Wuhan are exactly 50% higher than the old fake numbers.

At least in the West we make some effort with transparency when lives are being lost. *

What is not very funny is seeing western Government particularly the Trump hinting that they always believed the original numbers so thought is was not necessary to act early.

@wintertravel1980
@Reallybadidea

Sounds like good news regarding the antibody tests. Hopefully there’ll be more studies In coming few weeks that will give much more clarity on the mortality rate.

*Just a thought that popped into my head this evening re: BAME cases and deaths.

My DH is black and has sickle cell trait, under certain conditions such as low oxygen environments (high altitude), increased pressure (diving) and dehydration rarely people with the trait can have crises like that of sickle cell disease. As many as 3 million people in the USA have SCT and many are unaware that they carry the gene.

This paper seems to say that blood flow in sickle cell trait is oxygen dependent and viscosity becomes higher impairing blood flow in lower oxygen conditions.

I wonder if some of the BAME cases are undiagnosed SCT, severely impacted by low oxygen due to breathing difficulties associated with Covid-19.*

Name changed, Re this post by @123bananas, this was shared by a respected friend today. I usually take YouTube with a vat of salt but it rings bells with 123banana's post above from 23:26.

Not medical so can't comment personally but the similarities for some cases are striking and it's possible that it could be a potential treatment for some individuals.

Catching up, thanks for new thread!