Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I'm trying not to think of anything as 'The peak'. I'm beginning to regard this as the plateau of the 'first surge' instead. Hopefully any future surges will be tightly managed and controlled. Hopefully a great many insights will be gained from this first surge that can be applied in the management of any future surges.

4/6 days after Easter. That's why numbers gone up I bet.

Iremember

makes sense.

Regarding ECMO: I doubt very much that Boris had this modality.

It is last ditch treatment when conventional ventilation is not working. It is available for everyone who would fulfil criteria regarding having a reasonable chance of weaning off it and the subsequent step down to conventional ventilation required afterwards. So, likely to be younger patients with fewer comorbidities. In my trust, someone in their 40's was recently retrieved by the regional ECMO team but they were very clear about the criteria before they would attend.

We are expecting our peak to be mid May, or were a few weeks ago afaik.

The lockdown changed all the peak predictions. If you were still expecting a peak in Mid-May it would mean more transmission now than prior to the lockdown, but with that transmission only now slowing, which makes no sense if the lock down has been broadly complied with.

He had CPAP

I suspect a slight regional variation, I think Londoners started semi voluntary lockdown a little ahead of official lockdown ( living in the south with family up north)

I’m guessing that may well be the reason London is coming done faster. The fact that London was ahead of the curve meant Londoners realises the shit was hitting the fan, with the average Londoner taking action before the average person elsewhere. I can’t think of another way to explain it.

Guardian reports he didn't have CPAP, haplap (I feel a limerick coming on)

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/boris-johnson-and-coronavirus-inside-story-illness

@Derbygerbil thats what i thought. I live in the north east and couldnt stand the thought of our peak still being over a month away. My friend works on a covid ward and feels like every shift she expects to walk into a storm but so far hasnt... Fingers crossed it stays that way!

Can anyone comment on this paper? I found it linked in a very scary newspaper report about long term liver damage and it possibly hiding in the body long term like herpes / hepatitis

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20053819v1

diy I think proportionately they are at least levelling out, there are slight ups and downs with a few ups in the last few days, but then they have also been testing more, and testing people who likely would have had it but wouldnt have been tested previously so you would expect to see a slight increase. But proportionately they're leveled off a bit.
The tests data is also a bit unreliable as they dont test everyone.
Admissions to hospital is a much better indicator.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Friday APRIL 17th

Total UK cases: 108,692
New UK cases: 5,599
Total UK Deaths: 14,576
New UK Deaths: 847

Admissions to hospital is a much better indicator.

where are these published?

NewAccountForCorona. what makes you think your parents wouldn't be admitted in London? here in the east mids we don't have an age restriction for admission, we use the NHS decision tool which wouldn't exclude your parents nesessarily

@NewAccountForCorona

Is there guidance that over 80s aren't treated? I thought there was no blanket policy for any age group or condition?

where are these published?

It is one of the standard slides used at daily government briefings:

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

@Diyhaircutgonewrong
They are shown in the briefing, then you can download the charts and data from gov.uk

Just a correction to my post above - the slide shows numbers of people in hospital by region rather than new hospital admissions.

The graph appears to show that London is indeed past its peak.

He did have CPAP

Haplap - how do you know?

haplap if you know confidential medical information about Boris please do not share it that's unethical

I don't want to get anyone sacked. Obviously, believe what you like, I'm not going to be able to qualify the fact.

Chinese whispers is rife in hospitals and frequently as inaccurate as in any other situation, in my experience. In other words - if you didn't see it with your own eyes then you may well be wrong. And if you did see it with your own eyes and are posting about it on here then you should be sacked.

Diyhaircut
Hospital cases are similar to earlier this week. The difference is NHS staff who have been tested.
See the cases chart. Blue is hospital and orange NHS
www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-17-april-2020