Worried About Coronavirus- thread 37

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

I wonder if women on the cusp of giving birth might be more likely to be infected than average, though, due to increased exposure to and contact with the healthcare system leading up to giving birth?

Still high, though, and makes me hopeful.

"Can’t believe Neil Ferguson forecast just 5700 deaths all up from this a few weeks back. We cannot put too much stead in models."

He didn't. That was another completely different department at Imperial and nothing to do with the epidemiology team.

In any case, that prediction was changed soon afterwards based on new data.
mobile.twitter.com/TomPike00075908/status/1244077827164643328

(As you can see from his Twitter profile, he is not an epidemiologist).

Ah I see, it was wrongly attributed to him by a few newspapers. My mistake.

twitter.com/ElliotElinor/status/1250142080237809668?s=20

Elinor Elliot
@ElliotElinor
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3h
"Shocking report on #channel4news: Covid-19 patients are being discharged from hospital INTO CARE HOMES - many of them while still infectious.

This policy means that that Covid-19 is being INTRODUCED into an environment full of extremely vulnerable people. This is murder"

Yes, some journalists did a poor job of reporting this study and the Oxford one, so quite a lot of misinformation out there. Not your mistake really, but the mistakes of those who reported on it...also confusing when two separate studies coincidentally come from the same University but completely different departments and press didn't always make that clear.

From Twitter.

Thread

Peter Apps
@PeteApps
Think something missing from the COVID-19 debate is the extent to which the housing market has forced people to live in shared rented housing.

Consider this data from Camden:
11:39 AM · Apr 14, 2020·Twitter Web App
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Peter Apps
@PeteApps
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15h
Replying to
@PeteApps
The borough has 3,742 registered 'houses in multiple occupation'. That's basically where multiple households live in one building, sharing some basic amenities. So your standard private rented home split up into rooms.

Within these 3,742 homes, there are 17,003 people
Peter Apps
@PeteApps
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15h
In 1,877 of these the kitchen is shared between four or more people. Well over a thousand have shared washing facilities (showers and sinks).

All of these numbers will be underestimates because not all landlords register as they should and not all the data is complete
Peter Apps
@PeteApps
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15h
The government guidance on self-isolation in these properties is to stay in your room and wash all surfaces thoroughly.

Really this isn't going to happen. Light switches, door handles, taps, bannisters. The virus is going to spread once it gets in the house
Peter Apps
@PeteApps
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15h
HMOs aren't the preserve of students and young graduates anymore, it's become the go-to housing for anyone for whom self-contained housing is too expensive.

In London that's a lot of people, and will include many families and keyworkers.
Peter Apps
@PeteApps
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15h
None of these people can properly self-isolate from coronavirus, in a city which has one of the worst outbreaks on the planet.
Peter Apps
@PeteApps
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15h
You could write a book on how this has happened, but basically if you make it really easy to buy properties as an investment and then limit benefits and cut off the supply of social housing it's inevitable.

twitter.com/PeteApps/status/1250010765312110593?s=20

Helena see link to gov guidance on covid and care homes, page 4 negative tests are not required.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-admission-and-care-of-people-in-care-homes

See petition set up against this process:
you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/stop-patients-being-moved-to-care-homes-unless-proved-negative-of-covid-19?share=b3d5f7b3-7abe-48fa-b46d-454db68a0ecb&source=rawlink&utm_source=rawlink&share=803a250d-7147-4f5f-a237-206d0c778fd9

"Shocking report on #channel4news: Covid-19 patients are being discharged from hospital INTO CARE HOMES - many of them while still infectious.

Mentioned this on another thread last night...

It actively leaves private care homes and the state open to legal action in the long term tbh, even with the covid-19 laws.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-changes-to-the-care-act-2014
Coronavirus (COVID-19): changes to the Care Act 2014
Changes to the Care Act 2014 to help local authorities prioritise care and support during the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Local Authorities will remain under a duty to meet needs where failure to do so would breach an individual’s human rights under the European Convention on Human Rights. These include, for example, the right to life under Article 2 of the ECHR, the right to freedom from inhuman and degrading treatment under Article 3 and the right to private and family life under Article 8.

This paragraph is mentioned several times under the rules of relaxing obligations under the Care Act 2014 during the Coronavirus crisis.

Knowingly taking in someone who has covid-19 when you have very vulnerable patients which may place them at a real risk of death, could leave authorities and organisations open to prosecution further down the line if someone deems it to enfringe upon their right to life.

If I were a local authority or care home I certainly would be pushing back and saying piss off to pressure to take patients being discharged with covid-19 or suspected of having covid-19 or just generally being newly admitted (especially directly from hospital) with no symptoms not just from an humanitarian point of view but also from a legal one.

The relaxing of safeguarding rules during the crisis do not extend as far as endangering residents. Its that simple.

Whilst the advice might be that you don't have to provide a negative covid-19 test to be admitted, given the vulnerability of residents and the legalities of social distancing in combination with legal responsibility to existing residents I do think care homes would be well within their remit to refuse entry without a negative covid-19 test.

(if it later transpires its a false negative from a legal perspective they have discharged their responsibility to try and protect residents).

I do think there will be an attempt to go legal on this at some point.

Oh god - suddenly that makes sense. As stated earlier my mother in law was moved from her home into a nursing home last week. I had spoken to her adult care social worker about the funding, because costs for respite or medical need are different, and he told me then that many of the care homes were opening up beds for NHS, so she might be able to get in via that route. But now I realise that they probably mean opening up for NHS exit from hospital beds.
Jesus Christ.

Just to add, I certainly didnt push for her to go in there at all. It was job done by the time I was told - she had made the decision and it had been recommended by her care providers and approved by Adult social services.
I did raise the question that she hadnt wanted to go before as the doctor had told her she was safer at home, but as the issues with her abusive partner escalated she was between a rock and a hard place.
Sadly now she has gone her husband, who hasnt left the house for many months, is suddenly up and about and seemingly right as rain.

I am on the cusp of giving birth and didnt need to hear that i am more likely to be infected

what I find weird and concerning is that no country has a real, sensible exit plan.

and that the countries involved in the 2016 pandemic exercise have not implemented their learnings in improving infrastructure, pandemic legislation...

It must be a rotten time for you Jrobhatch29 - when you should be so excited. Hopefully your little one will soon be here, and you'll be able to put the worry behind you.

www.bbc.com/news/52282844

I don't know if this has been posted. It looks at the latest ONS stats for London and shows for week ending 3rd April the weekly death total was 62% more than the previous record high and more than twice the average for this week in the year. It goes on to say that due to registering deaths in hospitals many of these deaths more than likely took place in March which is well before we started reaching the higher levels.

• surely that study doesn’t mean you’re more likely to be infected, it just shows the infection rate in the general population (that’s my take on it anyway)? And the fact that most were asymptomatic means there was only a tiny small risk of it developing into anything serious. So I’d take it as good news.

Sorry that was meant for Jrobhatch29

“It may turn out that the spread of the virus in care homes has been "re-seeded" in the past few weeks by the aggressive discharging of patients from NHS hospital beds.

Dr Jamie Wilson, a former NHS psychiatrist and chief executive of Hometouch, a specialist care provider for the elderly, suspects many deaths reported in care homes were caused by the NHS decanting Covid-positive patients into them from mid-March.

A government document, Covid-19 Hospital Discharge Service Requirements, published on 19 March, directed that elderly hospital patients be moved into nursing homes or other social care accommodation to free up hospital capacity. Unbelievably, given how poorly equipped most nursing homes are and the unique frailty of their residents, the document states: "Some of these patients may have Covid-19, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic. All of these patients can be safely cared for in a care home if this guidance is followed."

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/unlike-spanish-flu-trek-peak-coronavirus-will-long/

The treatment of our elderly citizens and the car staff that work with them has been nothing short of criminal by this government.

*care staff

Following my appearance on 5 live phone in yesterday a lovely stranger has sent the staff this in the post today! Oh my, we're all in bits here so lovely!!

If recovering patients are spreading covid in care homes...

Then putting then in hotels etc will spread the virus in a similar way, surely?

Aw that's lovely @MurrayTheMonk!

Well deserved, Murray!

Murray you deserve it!

That's lovely @MurrayTheMonk.

Oh I also meant to say, I saw a tweet saying some Coroners were not putting Covid on the death certificate unless it was proven eg a positive test. Which is a concern for the ONS figures, although excess deaths will show the size of the problem.