Worried About Coronavirus- thread 37

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

@HelenaDove

Sorry to be a pain, I lost the original police thread I started. Is MN playing up?

I was wondering what Shropshire police have said that they now apologise for....!

You mean this one

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3876095-Police-tell-family-they-re-not-allowed-in-front-garden

Helena
Thank you
You are Queen of the World!

4605 positive tests today and 761 deaths. Are we beginning to plateau now?

@WhoWants2Know They're saying that it really could be, so let's hope so.

Cat update! So the local Cat’s Protection League helped us find the owner. They’ve just been to pick him up.

Basically, he moved from one end of town to the other and had been trying to get back through the woods behind town. We’re close to his old home, but not quite as far to the West.

He does also have form for pretending to be a poor sad lost cat to get treats and pets from people in general. He’s a bit of a Cat Casanova.

So he’d just not known how to get back to his new house, and the Wood adventures & travels explain the ticks.

Sorry to see him go, but happy he’s got a home and that he was just lost. We’ve got numbers to call now if he pitches up again.

Lovely news on the cat.

I think that due to all the unreported deaths it's impossible to class this as a plateau ex rot in hospital deaths. The deaths in the community are increasing if the news about care homes is anything to go by. Plus two bank holidays and days that's not consistently reported makes it difficult to assess where we are. I wish they would find a way of collating all the death data and report that, not just the hospital deaths as I think this might make people think things aren't as bad as they are and they might start taking more risks.

Too early to tell. These are reported deaths. I would expect reporting to be not as good over bank holiday. Same has happened in previous weekends. So need to wait and see.

I agree, if people feel that positive cases are levelling out, then they may think that the risk is diminishing and break isolation protocols more than before

Can I ask if anyone can remember what the rough guesstimate for number of cases when you only know deaths?
So say if my county has had 100 deaths - would that relate to roughly 10,000 cases??

I think they will spike just before the weekend again. We normally get low results just after a 2 day weekend. We just had a 4 day weekend the bag log could be huge.

@Bercows yes, that's true, and we'll know more when next week's ONS figures come out next week, as they will include deaths up to 10th April. That's how I understand it anyway.

Agree about the backlog. I also feel more people are dying outside of hospital due to higher admissions criteria than before, people being discharged home to die and lower response times from paramedics.

Today's numbers: UK deaths today 761, total deaths 12,868.

StarryNight - your cat visitor’s family must have been absolutely made up to have him back and so well cared for by you in the meantime. I hadn’t thought of it, but the restrictions on movement will have limited their ability to go looking for him.

@Gammeldragz

You may well be right sadly. When I was very ill with probable COVID-19 and was struggling to breathe, we were told that the criteria was not being able to breathe at all, only then would they send an ambulance. Also, if you're not able to speak 5 clear words. The problem was that my DH thought I was asleep so the paramedics took that to mean I was obviously breathing okay. However, I wasn't asleep, I was gasping for breath and unable to communicate this to my DH.

So the criteria was already very high back in the middle of March.

@whynotme I think it was with a mortality rate of 1% that means when the person who died caught it there were 100 cases. So with onward transmission over the 2-3 weeks from catching it to dying the estimate is 800-1000.

I am writing that from memory and it was discussed early in the outbreak so may have been superseded. But 12,868 x 800 is 10.3m cases which seems high.

@Choux isn't our R0 lower since lockdown, so that onward transmission calculation wouldn't be accurate?

It has just been reported our RO is somewhere between .5 and 1. Prior to lockdown i think it was considered to be around 3.

But how can they know that when they are only testing in hospital? They haven't got a clue what our RO is. None. It is guess work.

www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/04/15/no-plans-to-reopen-schools-in-wales-education-minister-says/

From another thread.

I thought it was interesting today from the Welsh minister.

I spoke to our primary school today and they said there's no end in sight at the moment.

My friend is a headteacher and they were told today to prepare to reopen after the May half term

If that's the plan, I'm all for it, especially as my DD1 will be starting high school in September. She has SEN dandy adoption related attachment issues so needs to have proper preparation for the change that's coming.

But I think a lot of thought needs to be put into how to reduce risk of COVID-19 spreading around the school. I think the antibody test needs to be in use by then, and thought needs to be given to how to handle pick up time, as social distancing just won't be possible the way it's always been done in the past.