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Worried About Coronavirus- thread 37

999 replies

TheStarryNight · 10/04/2020 00:27

New thread

OP posts:
Thread gallery
26
CrunchyCarrot · 14/04/2020 17:18

Beebity Flowers

Murray Very well done! I'm glad you've had a chance to talk about it publicly.

Number of cases and deaths
As of 9am on 14 April, 382,650 tests have concluded, with 14,982 tests carried out on 13 April.

302,599 people have been tested, of whom 93,873 tested positive

I spoke to my Aussie pal this morning, asking how things were going there. They have tested more people than we have in the UK, and their population is far smaller!

www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

TheStarryNight · 14/04/2020 17:23

How Spain’s Coronavirus lockdown is affecting children

Article from El Pais, starting to look at the long term effects on children.

It is still unclear why the coronavirus affects children less than it does adults. But the data shows that mortality rates among young people are practically zero. There are very few cases, and when there are, they tend to be very mild. But the pandemic is having its effect on them too. In Spain, they can’t even use the weekly trip to the store as an excuse to get out onto the street and get some air. They have been cooped up at home for more than a month now, with more weeks likely to come, and the confinement is already bringing with it problems of anxiety, obesity and a lack of education for the children...

...The strict confinement measures are already having an effect, several specialists consulted for this article agree. The Spanish Society for Obesity (SEEDO) pointed out yesterday that infants and young children are more likely to adopt inappropriate dietary habits during confinement and they estimate that children and adolescents will put on 5% of their total weight during this period. They calculate that there could have been an increase of at least a kilo of body fat among Spanish children over the last month.

“In a few months, the children who right now are scared and inhibited will start to manifest the traumas and real problems that their mental health is generating in this situation,” explains psychiatrist Diego Figuera Álvarez, from the Clínico San Carlos Hospital. “What has happened is generating and will generate traumas both in infancy and adolescence,” he says. “Traumatic memories create dissociated memories and they turn into behavioral problems that will manifest when children return to school, or will become somatizations,” i.e. a physical manifestation of emotional problems.

Alicia Arévalo, a pediatrician from a primary care center in Madrid, explains that consults about emotional issues have doubled. “They are coming with nightmares, night terrors, sleep disorders, eating problems… And also, on an emotional level, they are highly sensitive, they cry for no reason, they are introverted, they are not saying what is on their mind and they blow up for any reason. Many of them are terrified because they think their grandparents are going to die, or their parents are going to lose their jobs,” the pediatrician says.

Many of this pediatrician’s consults, 90% of which are via telephone, are due to somatizations. “They arrive with intense headaches, chest or stomach pains, palpitations, or breathing difficulties, and in reality, when you speak to them, the causes emerge – it’s the materialization of the anxiety that they are going through; they can’t put a name to it and that’s how it manifests,” the doctor explains.

Children who have some kind of neurological condition, such as those who are on the autism spectrum or are hyperactive, have been “subject to genuine suffering by the confinement,” she explains.

OP posts:
AliciaWhiskers · 14/04/2020 17:35

Fascinating article @TheStarryNight. Did the writer suggest any ways we can mitigate it?

CendrillonSings · 14/04/2020 17:37

alloutoffucks

Except the government has not truly lock downed the country. There are still builders building luxury flats and warehouse staff sending out non essential purchases.

That’s it? That’s all you’ve got? Doesn’t really support the accusation of far-right eugenicism, does it?

And you still haven’t acknowledged that Angela Merkel expects 60-70% of her population to contract the virus, despite your claim that Germany was doing nothing of the sort. How curious Wink

TheStarryNight · 14/04/2020 17:46

@AliciaWhiskers

Worth noting that in Spain, children aren’t allowed to leave the home at all, so no daily hour of exercise as in UK.

The article doesn’t go into individual mitigation measures, but does say this prior to detailing the effects I have already posted:

A number of voices are calling for solutions, that the restrictions be lifted slightly so that children can get out onto the street – albeit for short periods of time and close to home. This measure was introduced by Italy at the start of the month, and some epidemiologists view it positively, as long as it is carried out in a very controlled way. European countries such as France and Germany also allow children to leave confinement.

For now, and we are conscious of the sacrifice, we have to maintain this measure
HEALTH MINISTER SALVADOR ILLA

Some regional premiers in Spain have called for similar alternatives to be studied, such as Alberto Núñez Fejóo in Galicia, Javier Lambán in Aragón, and Miguel Ángel Revilla in Cantabria. The deputy premier of Madrid, Ignacio Aguado, has called for a relaxation on April 26, when the current state of alarm ends.

The Health Ministry is not considering such a move for now. Asked about the topic by journalists, Health Minister Salvador Illa said on Monday: “We are going to act with the utmost caution. When we believe that the safety conditions to take this decision are there, based on the data, we will take it and make it known. For now, and we are conscious of the sacrifice, we have to maintain this measure.”

But there is some movement on the topic. The Health Ministry has called on the Spanish Pediatrics Association to create a working group to evaluate the conditions for relaxing the confinement of children.

“We are putting together a report that will take into account that this will be a delicate process, given that we have to guarantee the wellbeing of children, but also take into account that they are major transmitters of the illness and they have to always be accompanied by an adult,” the association explains.

This document will specify which children should have priority when it comes to leaving the home, and for which reasons, as well as the way of doing it without it involving a risk for them or for society as a whole.

So basically, looking for ways to phase out lockdown confinement gradually with an emphasis on meeting children’s needs as a priority.

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AliciaWhiskers · 14/04/2020 17:55

Thank you, that was helpful. Also interesting to read the quote of “children are major transmitters of the illness”. I hope those thinking about reopening schools here have taken note of that.

halcyondays · 14/04/2020 17:59

Children in the UK can leave the house for exercise if they want to. My 13 year old dd has Aspergers and has never been happier, with the pressure of going to school removed her frequent anxiety related headaches and stomachaches have greatly improved. Even her more sociable younger sister seems to be quite happy as long as she can FaceTime her friends.

KOKOagainandagain · 14/04/2020 18:01

I don't understand why data issued by the ONS of deaths outside hospital are not being included. It seems that the stats used are only of those admitted to hospital and tested.

But it seems that about 15% of people who died were not admitted to hospital and so were not tested. Thus the stats aren't included because they weren't admitted to hospital and tested. This is an obviously circular argument.

The briefing today seemed to focus on a hypothetical economic scenario rather than ONS stats.

AliciaWhiskers · 14/04/2020 18:12

@halcyondays could I ask a quick question - is your DD doing much school work? I have an 11yo ASD DS but we are really struggling to encourage any school work.

TheStarryNight · 14/04/2020 18:29

@AliciaWhiskers

Perhaps it’s worth looking into the work that has been done with groups of traumatized children (and adults) prior to this. They are a lot of situations with significant similarities- war zones (especially sieges), natural disasters, refugee camps and mass shootings for example.

One of the things that’s really struck me about this is, we’re having a taste in the West of the kind of living conditions and situations that are often pretty commonplace in other parts of the world. L

There is some evidence when the trauma experienced is on a mass basis, rather than individualised, that the best approach is to improve the situation, rather than have targeted early psychological intervention:

PTSD as a result of mass trauma

I used to work in international development, and an anecdote that was used to illustrate this to help people get their heads round it.

During the (insert humanitarian disaster of your choice-often it’s Rwandan genocide, sometime it’s Darfur), western psychologists arriving on scene where baffled by the resistance of local relief agencies on the ground to trauma debriefings. When this was investigated the western agencies were told “But you just want the survivors to sit on their own, inside, in the dark, talking to a stranger about the awful things that have happened again and again. It’ll make them worse! They’ll relive it all. They should be moving around, be outside in the sun, with their friends, singing and dancing”.

Some of that’s obviously not possible, but movement, singing and dancing are. Basically Joe Wicks’ approach is very on the money- movement, fun, shared activity. Or people doing dance challenges on Tik-Tok.

This diagram outlining positive and negative responses is very helpful.

Snakes and Ladders

One of the people who developed it was involved in helping communities and families after Dunblane, and has been involved in trauma resolution in natural and created disasters like earthquakes, 9-11 and Sandy Hook.

This model was developed in order for professionals to be able to work with large numbers of individuals in a way that wasn’t re-traumatizing, and where there weren’t resources for a series on individual sessions.

Basically in response to a threat, there are useful ways to process anxiety (ladders) and ways that aren’t useful (snakes).

So basically it’s about light touches to guide people towards ladder responses rather than snake ones.

I really think the importance of physical movement, healthy expression and play can’t be overstated.

There is a lot of work on the importance of the body’s response to trauma, by people like Peter Levine that is very interesting. Basically don’t suppress physical and emotional responses, find a healthy outlet for them.

OP posts:
halcyondays · 14/04/2020 18:41

@AliciaWhiskers, they’re both doing the work school sets them on Google Classroom. School has told them to do the work at the normal time, so they start about 9.30 and finish at lunchtime. Dd1 has had low attendance and struggles with organisation so this has been easier for her than normal school. She’s not having to catch up on missed work all the time now.

Is your dds getting much work set by school?

halcyondays · 14/04/2020 18:42

Your ds, not your dds.

refraction · 14/04/2020 18:57

It is interesting that they say children are super spreaders as lots seem to think its the opposite on some of these threads.

Has there been any more research into this?

wintertravel1980 · 14/04/2020 19:23

Has there been any more research into this?

Most of the research so far does not support the hypothesis that children are super spreaders.

www.fhi.no/en/publ/2020/The-role-of-children-in-the-transmission-of-covid-19/

Based on the current evidence, it appears that infected children do not represent a major vector for transmission, but it is too early to draw any conclusions yet as the picture may change as we get more comprehensive data from infection tracking processes.

refraction · 14/04/2020 19:34

Thanks for the link Winter yes it shows its too early to tell.

Mittens030869 · 14/04/2020 19:49

It isn't so much about the children being super spreaders as I see it. It's about the parents/carers/grandparents having to come into the school grounds to pick their DC up. At my DDs' school it's so crowded at home time that I don't see how social distancing could happen. Staggered home times might be an answer?

I'm still unwell and have been for 5 weeks now. It could be COVID-19, but if it isn't then I'll be at risk of catching it, and in my weakened state right now that isn't something I want to risk. My DH has asthma so I wouldn't want him to catch it either. And we're a lot less vulnerable than other adults who would be facing this.

I think that the antibody tests need to be available before schools open again. If I could have it and have confirmation that I've had COVID-19 and recovered, then I would be very happy to take my DDs to school whenever it's open again, as my DDs need the routine and DD1 will be starting high school in September and needs to have a proper transition.

refraction · 14/04/2020 19:58

Totally agree mittens. I am a teacher who lives with extra vulnerable over 70s. I am
scared to go back too early.

CrunchyCarrot · 14/04/2020 20:11

Late doing this today, here are the daily death totals for the UK. 778 deaths today, making a total of 12,107. Sounds pretty hollow considering all the deaths in care homes and elsewhere.

Worried About Coronavirus- thread 37
SistemaAddict · 14/04/2020 20:16

It's awful how quickly this number of deaths has become expected whereas only a few weeks ago we were horrified when the news said a further two or three had died. I dread to think what the numbers would be if ALL the COVID related deaths were included.

Reastie · 14/04/2020 20:30

With the long bank holiday week end, do we think death rate will rise sharply in the next couple of days as often happens anyway after a week end? It’s just so awful when you realise this isn’t even all the deaths

PrincessEsterhazy · 14/04/2020 20:55

This bar chart shows the weekly comparison of deaths from previous years to this year and, for me, is the best way to illustrate that people are dying from Corona directly or from CV19 directly exacerbating an underlying condition.

Worried About Coronavirus- thread 37
EmMac7 · 14/04/2020 21:03

Can’t believe Neil Ferguson forecast just 5700 deaths all up from this a few weeks back. We cannot put too much stead in models.

EmMac7 · 14/04/2020 21:06

For the record:

“The statisticians’ best estimate for the total number of deaths is 5,700 in Britain, 28,000 deaths in Italy and 46,000 in Spain.

At its peak, Britain will see more than 250 deaths a day - which is far fewer than the 1,300 a day expected in Italy - according to the research.”

www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-lockdown-china-imperial-college-a4400431.html

MaxNormal · 14/04/2020 21:10

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

A group of women due to give birth were tested ar random in New York. 15% were positive with most being asymptomatic.

mrshoho · 14/04/2020 21:52

@PrincessEsterhazy That bar chart gives the clearest picture without needing any words.