3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

At the moment they are thinking the average mortality rate is 2-4% (although it may well be lower) ranging from 0.1-0,2% for children up to 15% for the over 80s

Its an average percentage that also doesnt account for the asymptomatic cases so it is likely to be lower.

@Candodad its still not that amount. First off the ages are broken down as below

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%

Plus this appears to have a gender and racial bias plus you would need all 150 to become infected.

So if absolutely worst case you have 60% of those staff infected and give it the highest mortality rate of 1.3 you get 1 death. Still 1 death too many but not the 6 you seem to think

Public Health England considering opening schools within weeks.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lockdown-schools-could-reopen-within-weeks-gcnkhgnkd

Public Health England considering opening schools within weeks.

Looks like I'll have to pull dc out then.

It refers to a suggestion and has probably been misreported. I can’t imagine why any schools would open properly when we’ve not even hit the peak of the pandemic. The schools might reopen but would be empty as no one would be sending their DC’s.

dfemedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/08/coronavirus-and-school-closures/

This is what the government thinks of the Times reporting. I wouldn’t take it too seriously.

September.

I dont understand the desperation of some parents to send their kids back. I only want mine to be safe.

@Appuskidu as on the other thread - how can the DoH respond to something two days before it was written?

They were reacting to the earlier, very similar article the Times wrote.

I dont understand the desperation of some parents to send their kids back. I only want mine to be safe
Yes, whereas those wanting kids to go back because they're struggling due to living in unsafe or insecure housing, struggling due to poverty, domestic abuse, or mental health etc, they don't give a damn about their kids, they're all clearly unconcerned about their kids safety.
Or, their wishes for them to go back implies they want this to be over and for it to he safe for their kids to go back which anyone with an ounce of common sense would know

According to the article, Headteacher Unions are asking that schools go back this school year, even if only for a few weeks. Their view is that it will help massively, for children to get back into formal education before the Summer holidays. Especially for younger children 5+ months is a huge amount of time, and a lot of them consequently will find it difficult to cope with the routine of school and what is expected of them, in terms of behaviour etc.

post.parliament.uk/analysis/covid-19-school-closures-and-mass-gatherings/

Times should actually report on the Science that the government use not flawed random ones that play on peoples emotions.

If we do go back before the summer (and I hope we do) I very much doubt there will be formal learning taking place. I'd suspect it will take on more of a pastoral form of teaching, going over what's actually happened the past x months we have been away from school and dealing with the trauma that a lot of children will have suffered. I work with young children and there's no way I can expect them to come back after months off, with some pupils having lost loved ones to the virus to come into class when we get back and talk about how to multiply decimals.

With enough notice of reopening, we can ensure we have adequate pastoral planning in place to support pupils when they come back. This can continue until the summer break and we can then welcome new classes back in September, and start working on where we left off - revisiting messed gaps in learning and consolidating knowledge before moving onto the year above (current) curriculum.

And what is going to miraculously happen between June/July and September? You think that the virus will have 'disappeared' by September?

I think the rate of deaths and infections will be copable with at this point. Nothing more, nothing less. It's frankly bizarre how many people are deluded to think we will be going back in June.

This is what the government thinks of the Times reporting. I wouldn’t take it too seriously.

It's not as if the Times runs to a particular political agenda is it ?

Oh.

I am really struggling bro understand why so many people think it must be September, that anything before then will be highly dangerous and irresponsible, but in September all will be fine.

Well, from an LA perspective, we may have sufficient non-infectious teachers, support staff and and premises available to deliver schooling by then. But in 3 weeks ? Absolutely not.

The reek of entitlement here is HORRIFIC

Why do you think September will be safe?

It's time I suppose. Time to watch what happens in other countries like Spain, Italy, Korea.

Will Wuhan have a second wave?

There is the chance that antivirals may be developed. More info on the blood plasma and the vaccine ( though a long way off).

There would be more information. There will be more Time. (Caveat mental health)

Contact tracing, testing development. Antibody test.

Looking at the SAGE research 16 weeks has maximum affect too.

So plenty of reasons why September.

Does anyone really believe schools will open in 3 weeks? Where has this been published?

Those who were asked to shield were asked to do so for 12 weeks which takes us to mid-late June so it doesn't make any sense at all to even think about opening schools before then. That's at least another 9 weeks away without even giving time to put a plan in place before sending us back to work.

Anyone who suggests it will be earlier and particularly those who are suggesting we will be opening in 3 weeks is very mistaken. I certainly won't be heading back whilst we are in the height of the pandemic and can't see any other member of the profession heading back either.

Heading back at the end of June/July for a couple of weeks seems like a safer bet in terms of being over the peak, the rate of new infections slowing right down, the number of hospital admissions reducing to almost none and the deaths being hopefully 0. Then if there is another peak we have the summer off to hopefully get it back under control.

Also I need to say whilst I am desperate to get back to work and am hoping we have a hold of things by July, if it's September before we are expected to return then so be it. My major concern at the moment are the vulnerable children who are anywhere but safe being at home.

I am a believer in science leading the way and whilst I would love to hide away until a vaccine is developed, I don't think that's a possibility as the timescales are currently 12-18 months it seems.

@riceuten Who said anything about opening in 3 weeks?

I think September is only used as a future date marker as that is when the next term starts and is sufficiently in the future for many variables to have changed..

No more,no less.

It's all arbitrary, we have to wait.

I'm more worried that they'll open and we'll feel a huge pressure to send them back even though it doesn't seem safe

End of May seems likely.

@Quartz2208

Those figures are really outdated. They are from mid- February. Worldometer have just never changed them.

Agree with Refraction on why September