3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

I think schools will go back in a phased way in September.

I think the government will be too worried they haven’t done the testing/contact tracing/social distancing that other countries have done before allowing schools back and don’t want to be liable for a huge wave of deaths. This government has only just been voted in-they have a long time left to be accountable for any mistakes and will be very cautious about how they play things.

Best case scenario would be start of July with a very phased/staggered start. But our testing would have to be massively increased.

schoolsweek.co.uk/school-staff-dont-need-protective-equipment-new-government-guidance-states/

This article worries me though.

Sending schools back saying they are going to restrict cleaning supplies and giving the advice that schools just ‘need to socially distance and it’ll be ok’, is probably going to kill lots of people.

@Quiglet no because once this wave is over we should be able to manage it with testing/contact tracing/antibody testing and things put into place. The Asian Countries work that way as seemingly is Germany. There are plenty of things we could be doing to minimise all of this down as far as possible.

The fact that we may not though is a failure of this Government - but yes I hadnt realised how much the Excel centre was costing £3m a month

The vaccine is the final piece the holy grail that means this is over but it may not come to fruition so we cannot hang any exit strategy on it being possible.

I have to say I dont think we are disagreeing that the GOvernment Strategy is not going to be a pleasant one and could have a lot of collateral damage. Im saying that other countries have shown there are ways of minimising this down given IF a vaccine comes through it wont hit here for awhile. Ours may not follow them though.

Huge apologies for linking to the Daily Fail but this article talking about opening after Easter - www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199623/Lockdown-NOT-reviewed-Monday-Downing-Street-confirms.html

I work in a school and the week before we closed was utter chaos with staff and pupil absence. If they open too soon it'll be no different - half the kids and staff isolating, parents refusing to send their kids in, lessons in disarray. There is absolutely no way social distancing could be maintained, even with say only one year group in. If schools open then what's the point of closing anything else? Madness.

The vaccine is at least 18 months away and that would be rushing it through. What is good news, everyone that has had virus, it looks like they are immune, there are very, very few cases where people catch it twice and even then it looks very mild.

Cantaloupe it's absolutely madness.

Notice the minister is unnamed and they are still quoting that flawed study.

Gin96,
Until you find out that the virus mutates and they are likely to need a new vaccine for the newer strain

No one knows but I think as well as the infection curve it may well depend on testing being massively increased and how quickly we can get that done.

The WHO said to Test Test Test - and countries like China and South Coria haven't got a vaccine they've tested, isolated and contact traced effectively in addition to social isolating.

That's the one thing were supposed to be learning from Germany is that we need to do more testing.

So if it is September - and I don't think anyone knows yet -that's one thing I expect to have changed - ideally mass testing of the entire population if not massively increased testing numbers compared to now -so we have a better handle on who is infectious and can control the situation better.

We may even have an anti-body test - which again would massively change the situation and make it easier and less risky to re-open the country and schools.

Notice the minister is unnamed hmmand they are still quoting that flawed study.

Yup! The study that said ‘closing schools without doing any other type of social distancing isn’t very effective’. What a surprise?!

That’s not what we did and Prof Neil Ferguson has said that closing the schools was an effective way at cutting links between households. The BBCs reporting of that was diabolical. It just feels like propaganda to gauge public reaction.

The problem is...

opening schools=an end to social distancing.

It is impossible to have thousands of kids on buses/trains/walking to schools/30+ to a room, hundreds to a corridor, hundreds of parents waiting in the playground etc and have social distancing. If you stop social distancing, you have no handle on it.

The study yesterday by scientists in Seattle saying our death rate is going to be higher than most other European countries was worrying.

Also, just to add. Few people believe that Chinese data was accurate during the epidemic so why would you believe that they have no new cases now? Definitely fewer but no new cases?!
China is massive powerhouse which also suffered economically. It makes sense for them to say that it is all over and they are back to business.

I don’t think scrapping the exams has any particular effect on when the schools go back. They only had to scrap the exams because it was clear that schools would have to close for a substantial amount of the remaining teaching time - ie lots of students, esp in deprived areas, would not be given opportunity to study the syllabus. But I don’t think exams scrapped = no one back till September.

@Quartz2208 no I don’t think we are disagreeing either, just about timeframes and the will of different societies to keep to social distancing instructions properly - Asia crushed this with hardcore lockdown, testing, tracing, disinfection, Germany are adept at testing, tracing, PPE and excellent compliance but the UK seems to be winging it and still relying on “oh well, everyone will get it, it isn’t too bad, let’s send the section of the population least able to maintain adequate hand hygiene into close confinement” while the PM is in ICU.

The more relaxed and short the curve flattening episodes, the more deaths and longer drawn out economy depressing I think this will be overall.

www.ft.com/content/0d0f4789-63dd-47d2-8d74-bb2334ea3b0e

Article about Denmark reopening schools.

What does it say magic there's a pay wall.

I have received an email from my child's state comprehensive. Confirming they will not be opening again before September (at the earliest) .

The headmaster has sent this message ;

...to 'manage expectations, especially for our year 13 cohort who will be leaving us and understandably what to know if they will have an opportunity to say goodbye. I understand how disappointed they will be to miss this 'rite of passage' - please be assured that we will be organising a 'farewell' day for all affected, when the school reopens....

Do they actually mention September though because truthfully they wont have a clue when they are reopening?

I was organising the Year 6 leaving presentation at the Prom and basically their view was they are working towards September and certainly dont see it being any later than that. But that is all they can do as they know no more than us.

We have agreed it is best to rearrange it now and plan for something in September because anything else is too much up in the air.

That said I think Secondary and Primary schools may well have different opening dates - Primary are much smaller so easier to have smaller numbers and potentially are used as childcare.

So thinking about it I think Secondary will definitely not be until September. Online learning etc can be done there etc.

Nurseries/Primary may well be earlier - looking at stats as well the age range of how they are effected is different between the Primary and Secondary as well

No they don't mention September. They say 'not before September' ... to manage expectations for children hoping to say goodbye to school friends this school year. The headmaster just wanted them to know it DEFINITELY will not be happening.

Yeah I think Secondary will be September. Looking at Denmark and returns I think they will do Primary first and get it sorted how that will work before focussing on Secondary.

University could be even later than that.

So I think it will be staggered starting with nursery and Primary and all the way through Secondary and then Tertiary/University.

But no one actually knows it could be earlier or later

Lets face it none of us have a clue.

But the "ha told you so" OP will know one way or another in around 6 weeks.

Personally I'd rather have my kids at home where they are safe

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thelocal.dk/20200406/denmark-to-reopen-schools-and-kindergartens-next-week/amp

FT article should be free. Basically it said that Denmark is opening schools next week starting with nurseries and lower primary age children.

Another 828 have died in the last 24 hours. We are along way off any resemblance of returning to a normal life.

HT's here are expecting August. I can't see them reopening in May, especially for us as we break up in June

Another 828 have died in the last 24 hours

936 in the whole of the UK and people are talking about opening the schools and relaxing lockdown?

If some people could see what is happening in the hospitals, to young people as well as elderly, they'd have a re-think. We are not even at the peak yet.