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Original poster

3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

487 replies

AlmostThereKeepMoving · 07/04/2020 21:00

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

OP posts:
Delatron · 08/04/2020 15:06

Nobody is a saying relax the measures now. We always knew that we wouldn’t hit the peak for another week to two weeks so this doesn’t change anything.

Appuskidu · 08/04/2020 15:10

I don’t think primary will open before secondary- trying to do any sort of social distancing with small children is very problematic.

starlightgazers · 08/04/2020 15:26

so this doesn’t change anything

The high numbers do change things, the NHS is not going to cope if they keep climbing as they are, and staff sickness, death and absence continues at the current rate. A struggling NHS will mean a longer lockdown.

ChickLitLover · 08/04/2020 16:10

I don’t think primary will open before secondary- trying to do any sort of social distancing with small children is very problematic

Teens don’t do social distancing either.

Appuskidu · 08/04/2020 16:13

@chicklitlover

Indeed-I suspect whatever is planned will be an ‘all or nothing’ approach.

Quartz2208 · 08/04/2020 16:20

Denmark are just doing Primary and Primary would be about being part of kickstarting the economy by allowing parents to go back to work and utilising the childcare options.

The stats in terms of how it effects them are different between the age ranges of Primary and Secondary as well.

I am not saying it will happen (and clearly nothing will in April/May at all) just that it might. If not here certainly in other countries

ChickLitLover · 08/04/2020 16:28

Indeed-I suspect whatever is planned will be an ‘all or nothing’ approach.

I think it will have to be. Anything else would be a waste of time. Kids have siblings, many will be primary but with siblings at secondary so they’ll be going home to them anyway.

The thought of schools going back was giving me nightmares to be honest. If it’s too soon, in my head, I’ve decided to homeschool. But I’m obviously still worrying for other children.

BubblyBarbara · 08/04/2020 16:45

Death occurs, on average, 18 days after first symptoms present. First symptoms present, on average, 5-7 days after infection.

So a person who dies today probably picked it up about 25 days ago, or around March 14 which predates the full lockdown.

On the plus side, that means we should, fingers crossed, see a serious reduction in the next 1-2 weeks, but it'll pick up for a few days yet.

CaroleFuckinBaskin · 08/04/2020 16:51

936 in the whole of the UK and people are talking about opening the schools and relaxing lockdown?

Who is suggesting that we open schools and relaxing lockdown right now?

People are just saying that we won't be able to keep lockdown up until it is totally 'safe' to go out ie. When a vaccine becomes available and has been administered. Its just not going to happen.

Toomboom · 08/04/2020 16:52

I can't see schools going back anytime soon.

We shall also see once they open all these parents who are desperate for their children to go back to come onto MN to say they are worried about sending their children back in case they become infected and is it safe! Can't win.

Pomegranatepompom · 08/04/2020 16:55

My colleagues (nhs) we are distraught at the thought of life like this for months and months. We’d cope much better with waves of stress. So we hope for some relaxation in next couple of months, restrictions applied again before Autumn.
So worried about mental health in general.

nellodee · 08/04/2020 17:01

The point of lockdown isn't to slowly enable herd immunity. It isn't even just to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. It's to buy time.

Over the last couple of weeks we have developed a new cpap machine, tested the tests, discovered a promising serum therapy, begun looking into TB vaccines being beneficial, revised thinking about safe distances and the wearing of masks and got in a whole lot of actual data so we don't have to rely on crap modelling.

In a couple of weeks, we might have some headway on proper testing and maybe a better treatment. At the very least, we will have a better idea of our capability to cope with the numbers we are getting, and whether they have maxed out.

What we don't need is to throw away all the hard work. We need to get new cases down to near zero so if we do release the lockdown we have a few weeks leeway before the cases rise back up to an unsustainable amount. And preferably, we need to find ways of making sure they don't rise as quickly on the next cycle. We can't release lockdown whilst cases are at the peak, because then it won't BE the peak anymore, just a foothill to a much, much larger disaster.

Delatron · 08/04/2020 17:21

Not one person is suggesting to release lockdown at the peak of this virus....

Quartz2208 · 08/04/2020 17:31

Angela Douglas has literally just said it is too soon to say one way or another.

So pretty much what myself and I think @Delatron have said which is that these things will happen once the plateau has been reached - whenever that will be

CaroleFuckinBaskin · 08/04/2020 17:52

We can't release lockdown whilst cases are at the peak

No. One. Is. Saying. We. Should. Do. This.

starlightgazers · 08/04/2020 17:56

No. One. Is. Saying. We. Should. Do. This.

Except the OP who is suggesting schools will go back in May you mean, despite the current daily death toll, and the fact that we have still not even peaked yet?

QueenofSwearing · 08/04/2020 17:58

I agree @Snowflakes1122 I wouldn't want to send my child back knowing there were still active infections, it seems like taking three steps backwards to me.

GoldenOmber · 08/04/2020 17:59

Except the OP who is suggesting schools will go back in May you mean

The OP's title is literally "3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open". Not "hit plateau and immediately open schools".

midgebabe · 08/04/2020 18:01

Never say never

midgebabe · 08/04/2020 18:02

Wrong thread I think...sorry

GoldenOmber · 08/04/2020 18:06

Does seem like a lot of people think anyone talking about it now must want it to happen now.

starlightgazers · 08/04/2020 18:07

The OP's title is literally "3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open". Not "hit plateau and immediately open schools

Yes - I'm so delighted that finally a MN expert has acquired a crystal fucking ball....

This is what the OP says:
I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term

Which, quite frankly is bollocks. Maybe leave the speculation and amateur graphs alone and come and see what is going on in some of our hospitals atm. Staff and other workers are dying daily and all people seem to give a shit about is when the fucking schools will re-open/ lockdown will end. It's getting tedious.

starlightgazers · 08/04/2020 18:08

Does seem like a lot of people think anyone talking about it now must want it to happen now

Not helped when people SPECULATE we are looking at some point in May though, does it?

refraction · 08/04/2020 18:10

Quote'Staff and other workers are dying daily and all people seem to give a shit about is when the fucking schools will re-open/ lockdown will end. It's getting tedious.'

Agree with this its like an obsession.

Thought with NHS staff but even if looking at it from a selfish view it would be

  1. When can I see my sister again?
  2. When can I go to dentist for my toothache?
  3. When can I hug my friend who lost her Dad.

Not when the fooking schools go back! Ffs!

GoldenOmber · 08/04/2020 18:10

Yes - I'm so delighted that finally a MN expert has acquired a crystal fucking ball....

I'm not saying OP's right, I'm saying that OP very clearly did not say we should reopen schools at the peak of the virus.

Not helped when people SPECULATE we are looking at some point in May though, does it?

'after May half term' is not 'now'. I think the OP is being very optimistic about how much cases will have dropped by that point. But why does it matter if people want to SPECULATE? It's not like the virus is listening and jotting down notes.