3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

[WestWasnt]

No I don’t have a source, I don’t know where it came from, but when I read it on here I was as sure as I can be that they won’t have meant all young people, god knows what they mean by “young” anyway.

[starlightgazers]

I’m sure it’s a percentage of victims not all the “young” people in the country

So if you're sure, you have a source for that (dodgy) statistic then?

[WestWasnt]

0.1% of young people or 0.1% of all victims?

I’m sure it’s a percentage of victims not all the “young” people in the country, which is of course a huge difference. That’s not to say that every death from this virus, and other knock on effects, aren’t absolutely tragic.

[ChardonnaysPetDragon]

Hope so. Yes we're seeing young people die. 0.1% of them.

0.1% of young people or 0.1% of all victims?

[WestWasnt]

I certainly wouldn’t listen to anything The Sun say. I am hoping things have slowed enough for schools to go back at the end of next month though.

[riceuten]

Agree with Refraction on why September

Because the scientific and HR concensus is that we will have flattened the curve by then, and there will be sufficient staff available to teach children. This may not be what you want to hear but is the most likely outcome.

[riceuten]

Who said anything about opening in 3 weeks?

The Sun, for one. And many other people, more in hope than anything else

[Tootletum]

Hope so. Yes we're seeing young people die. 0.1% of them.

[AvalancheKit]

The UK is richer than you think. The cost of furloughed employees is about £110Bn for 36 weeks. That is about the same tax that is raised in 57 days by central government. That is a small investment to keep the wheels from rusting up. Other countries should take heed. The 36 weeks will allow a phased return over time, to benefit society overall, but ultimately designed to protect the vulnerable, the NHS and minimise deaths. This may well be a test run for Winter 20/21. I would not plan on flying anywhere soon. Transport will be limited to trade for some time to come. But there are positives out there.

[flowerycurtain]

@AvalancheKit how on earth can our economy cope with lockdown for 26 weeks. 3 times as many people as the government expected have been put on furlough. The financial cost to this is staggering.

I'm not saying it's right I just cannot see how it's affordable.

[Quartz2208]

@AvalancheKit yes from China. The cdc figures I have seen broadly follow the same unless you have seen different ones that will make a difference to the calculation but most I have seen follow the same pattern

[AvalancheKit]

Lockdown will run for 36 weeks and there will be a phased lift.

The nightingale hospitals will stay in situ ready to be used again if a breakout recurs over Winter 20/21.

The economy will go into recession, but it won’t be anywhere as bad as most are saying.

The ‘flattening of the curve’ is an analogy that is playing out across everything : COVID-19, the economy, consumption, pollution. It is uncanny.

[MarshaBradyo]

Agree with Refraction on why September

[AvalancheKit]

@Quartz2208

Those figures are really outdated. They are from mid- February. Worldometer have just never changed them.

[Magicbabywaves]

End of May seems likely.

[carriebreadshaw]

I'm more worried that they'll open and we'll feel a huge pressure to send them back even though it doesn't seem safe

[sofato5miles]

I think September is only used as a future date marker as that is when the next term starts and is sufficiently in the future for many variables to have changed..

No more,no less.

It's all arbitrary, we have to wait.

[WestWasnt]

@riceuten Who said anything about opening in 3 weeks?

[BertNErnie]

Also I need to say whilst I am desperate to get back to work and am hoping we have a hold of things by July, if it's September before we are expected to return then so be it. My major concern at the moment are the vulnerable children who are anywhere but safe being at home.

I am a believer in science leading the way and whilst I would love to hide away until a vaccine is developed, I don't think that's a possibility as the timescales are currently 12-18 months it seems.

[BertNErnie]

Does anyone really believe schools will open in 3 weeks? Where has this been published?

Those who were asked to shield were asked to do so for 12 weeks which takes us to mid-late June so it doesn't make any sense at all to even think about opening schools before then. That's at least another 9 weeks away without even giving time to put a plan in place before sending us back to work.

Anyone who suggests it will be earlier and particularly those who are suggesting we will be opening in 3 weeks is very mistaken. I certainly won't be heading back whilst we are in the height of the pandemic and can't see any other member of the profession heading back either.

Heading back at the end of June/July for a couple of weeks seems like a safer bet in terms of being over the peak, the rate of new infections slowing right down, the number of hospital admissions reducing to almost none and the deaths being hopefully 0. Then if there is another peak we have the summer off to hopefully get it back under control.

[refraction]

Why do you think September will be safe?


It's time I suppose. Time to watch what happens in other countries like Spain, Italy, Korea.

Will Wuhan have a second wave?

There is the chance that antivirals may be developed. More info on the blood plasma and the vaccine ( though a long way off).

There would be more information. There will be more Time. (Caveat mental health)

Contact tracing, testing development. Antibody test.

Looking at the SAGE research 16 weeks has maximum affect too.

So plenty of reasons why September.

[riceuten]

I am really struggling bro understand why so many people think it must be September, that anything before then will be highly dangerous and irresponsible, but in September all will be fine.

Well, from an LA perspective, we may have sufficient non-infectious teachers, support staff and and premises available to deliver schooling by then. But in 3 weeks ? Absolutely not.

The reek of entitlement here is HORRIFIC

[riceuten]

This is what the government thinks of the Times reporting. I wouldn’t take it too seriously.

It's not as if the Times runs to a particular political agenda is it ?

Oh.

[riceuten]

And what is going to miraculously happen between June/July and September? You think that the virus will have 'disappeared' by September?

I think the rate of deaths and infections will be copable with at this point. Nothing more, nothing less. It's frankly bizarre how many people are deluded to think we will be going back in June.

[BertNErnie]

If we do go back before the summer (and I hope we do) I very much doubt there will be formal learning taking place. I'd suspect it will take on more of a pastoral form of teaching, going over what's actually happened the past x months we have been away from school and dealing with the trauma that a lot of children will have suffered. I work with young children and there's no way I can expect them to come back after months off, with some pupils having lost loved ones to the virus to come into class when we get back and talk about how to multiply decimals.

With enough notice of reopening, we can ensure we have adequate pastoral planning in place to support pupils when they come back. This can continue until the summer break and we can then welcome new classes back in September, and start working on where we left off - revisiting messed gaps in learning and consolidating knowledge before moving onto the year above (current) curriculum.