3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

As I said upthread - for those who think Sept is the 'right time' for schools to reopen - WHAT WILL THE REST OF SOCIETY BE DOING UNTIL THEN?

Seriously, are we expecting everyone to remain in lockdown, restaurants, businesses shut, no gatherings, no interaction with family and friends etc etc?

The government were worried about ONE hot day over the weekend, how do you think people are going to copy for another FOUR months of lockdown? Particularly over the hot summer?

Some of you are being extremely unrealistic about how much people can tolerate. If the schools remain shut, so will the rest of society.

I think June is more realistic (note, not necessarily what I would do) - second wave over summer. Some people will have to remain 'shielded' at home to reduce their risk, but slowly, the rest of society will have to try and get back to functioning.

Taking temperatures at school won't work, in the week before we closed, half of my class told me that they had been given calpol at home before school started.

I think the fact that one of our local schools is being transformed into one of the temporary field hospitals should tell you everything you need to know about when the government are expecting schools to re-open.......

As well as some schools being earmarked as temporary field hospitals, some will be used as temporary morgues.

January at the earliest because we’d need a few months to see how it’s going before responsibly re-opening schools. It’s a pandemic, serious, we can’t just rush into sending our children back. Bugs spread round schools like wildfire, especially primary. Of course if there’s a spike around then, I’d consider it again in a few months.

There are quite a few schools around the country being turned into hospitals right now. It isn’t just the one near Frangipani. I agree that it gives a clear indication that they are expecting schools to be shut for more than a few more weeks.

There are a number of buildings which could be turned into field hospitals.

Please do not confuse “could be” with “will be” . Clearly it depends on how the virus plays out. If things continue as is, then they would not be turned into a field hospital or a morgue and would return to operating normally as a school.

People need to understand what planning is, it is not a definitive. You plan for worst case, whilst working to prevent it. If you’re successful in preventing it then you never ever need to put the worst case plans into action.

I can’t decide if people are enjoying scare mongering, or simply don’t understand it, or are genuinely scared, or simply don’t want to return to work and would like to be able to stay home. I suspect there is a mixture of all types.

There are quite a few schools around the country being turned into hospitals right now

It’s predominantly in places like Cumbria but it is done quickly and can be changed back equally as quickly.

Er, I work for a large London LA and that is precisely our plan. I think you're wishing that the above were the case and that the virus miraculously disappears, but I think you perhaps need to be a little bit more realistic than that

And what is going to miraculously happen between June/July and September? You think that the virus will have 'disappeared' by September?

All of these measures will be done during the first wave during which we will be locked down. I don’t think anyone is arguing that and we simply don’t know how long that will be. Signs from other countries (including Wuhan) are around the 2-3 month mark with some restrictions starting to be lifted at the 2

After that they will ease off they have too they can’t afford for this to go on

The 800 day model in the Netherlands won’t be followed its ethics are awful (and vaccine less) you can pick areas imagine if the UK followed it and decided London could be opened first but Cornwall last

That said we need testing antibody tests and contact tracing set up to get through this. Look how’s germany have gotten through this first wave

But we keep it going too long and there will be nothing to go back to. We are going to have to face this and be brave

And let’s be honest everyone thinks the absolute minimum they will be shut is the next 2 months

When things return, I expect it will be on a phased basis. First they will open shops, and wait to see how that goes. Then the next level and so on. Things will not return to ‘normal’. There will be many new one parent families grieving. Many businesses will never open again. Many will lose their jobs. Taxes will be high for those working. Our old lives are not going to simply resume to ‘normal’. We will have a new ‘normal’. This is just the beginning. Hold your children tighter, we don’t know who will be left to do so in a few months.

I appreciate you are finding some comfort from embracing the worst possible scenario, but leave some room for others to find hope elsewhere.

Can we pin the above to the top of every Coronavirus thread?!

Can we pin the above to the top of every Coronavirus thread?

I suggest you speak directly to people working in the frontline and you will see how incredibly naive that sentence is.

@theschoolonthehill

I am very glad that it's 'incredibly easy ' for you to stay inside. F or a lot of us, that is simply not the case, so do not assume that the rest of us don't have genuine, very real difficulties with the situation. If my business collapses, I will have to go bankrupt, and will lose my house. I have also had to put 5 other people out of work. There is nothing easy about this situation at all, but I'm very glad it is for you.

Waah Yesterday we went from £90K to Nil.

Will we lose the house? In time very possibly. Am I worried? Very. Is my life right now easier than other members of my family going to work on the frontline. Yes!

The few remaining investments after the crash in 2008 are gone probably never go recover this time. But we are alive. My children are healthy. That is what is important for without that, there is nothing anyway.

Pull together guys. It shouldn't be a case of who's got it harder - different people are struggling for different reasons. Just because you're not on the 'front line', doesn't mean you're having an easy ride of it.

Have some compassion. You might be coping well at home, but others won't be. Lots will experience loss. Some are in abusive situations. Some are living in poverty and squalor, no gardens etc etc etc. Many with mental health will be going downhill with little support.

My children are healthy. That is what is important for without that, there is nothing anyway.

Exactly this. We have to wait a few months once the curve is flat, to see what happens. We don’t know this virus and it may be unpredictable. The schools can’t responsibly open before January, if there’s a spike before then, we’re looking at a few months after that. If they do open before January, mine won’t be going in.

Why does everyone think reopening schools will fix the problem? Where is the virus going exactly? Oh yes... to spread via kids in schools to create the governments second wave. After all ‘children a rarely get it’ so they will just bring it home to you.

Herd immunity stills seems to be at play here

Things will not return to ‘normal’. There will be many new one parent families grieving. Many businesses will never open again. Many will lose their jobs. Taxes will be high for those working. Our old lives are not going to simply resume to ‘normal’. We will have a new ‘normal’. This is just the beginning. Hold your children tighter, we don’t know who will be left to do so in a few months.

You see this sort of comment crops up multiple times on every thread at the moment and I find it incredibly difficult to stomach. It always comes across to me as overdramatic and a bit hysterical. Yes these are difficult times, yes there will be changes but nobody's future is guaranteed, virus or not. Why do the gloom mongers have to insist that every single person on mumsnet shares their sense of intending doom and terror. As long as people are being sensible and sticking to the rules, let them have their hope and their optimism. After all, what will be will be. You can spend the entire lockdown shivering in terror or you can spend lockdown being positive and looking for signs of hope and healing. You can't change what comes afterwards so let people smile if they want to.

I appreciate you are finding some comfort from embracing the worst possible scenario, but leave some room for others to find hope elsewhere

And yes to this, I don't find it naive to have hope.

If the thought schools would be back to normal they would not have cancelled the exams

The thing is the virus isn’t going to go away on its own. The only reason we will see a plateau is if the social distancing works, and then if we go back I feel like it would get worse again. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t go back until there’s some form of reliable test.
The UCL study is disputed and isn’t peer reviewed I don’t think (understandably). Also, it suggests “closing playgrounds and increasing distance between children”. Tell me how I’m supposed to effectively teach 30 reception children in a tiny classroom that way? My entire day would be spent keeping them apart. In this case, a fraction of the class would be able to be in at once.
I said on a different thread that my PGCE course provider has been told by the DfE that the rest of our course will be completed outside of school, which will go on until June. That is official guidance to them from the DfE who I feel have got a better picture of things than people speculating (including me).
Personally I’ll be very angry if I have to go back in to a full classroom of 30 children with no concept of hygiene while this is still going on.

Why does everyone think reopening schools will fix the problem? Where is the virus going exactly?

People don't think that opening the schools back up will 'fix' the problem, but some people (like me) are struggling to see what will, magically happen over the summer which means that schools which couldn't possibly open in June/July will be able to open back up in Sept. And also, people understand that you cannot keep schools shut until a vaccine becomes available, it's just not an option.

I do think herd immunity comes into it in that as more people get the virus the transmission will slow down, but obviously this will be after a peak.