3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

‘January at the earliest’

@Tfytggghh

You’re in for a shock!

I suggest you speak directly to people working in the frontline and you will see how incredibly naive that sentence is.

I have close family members working on the frontline. It is very bad and awful out there. I don't know why you think it would make it better for them to say "ooooh no it's never going to get better you're going to be living like this for years"? They're quite looking forward to things improving.

Erm the number of cases will drop? Basically opening in June is simply to create a second wave. No other reason. No one wants to go into schools to play chicken with the virus but that’s exactly what will be happening.

It wouldn’t surprise me if schools go back before then, especially if mumsnet is proportionate to real life, they’ll be a lot of pressure to open them before it’s responsible to do so. However, mine won’t be going. I’ll pull them out and reapply at a later date if I need too.

Well done to those parents who actually want to keep their children safe and not in school. Nice to see some people have some common sense. ‘It’s just not an option’ isn’t actually the solution. This has never happened before. There is no answer- but it’s not focussed around opening schools being the be all and end all.

I should add that as a student teacher I would happily go back to full classes if I was able to have some protective gear, because otherwise I don’t know how I could handle 30 reception kids in a confined space who have and will sneeze directly in my face

People keep saying how will people cope being locked up at home.

Imagine your loved one in a casket.

There you go. Learn to fucking cope. This isn’t a game or a film. It’s actual real life.

Well done to those parents who actually want to keep their children safe and not in school.

Well done?

@catsandlavender doesn’t work does it? Government says keep the 2m apart. Clearly have never been in a classroom.

On Twitter I have been told I should just ‘die’ when I suggested Wearing PPE in the classroom and that I am selfish cow.

‘It’s just not an option’ isn’t actually the solution.

Okay so what's your solution? As I see it we've got three options:

a) open all the schools now
b) keep all the schools closed for 12-18 months minimum until there's a vaccine
c) open the schools some time between 'now' and 'vaccine' once we get cases lower and have a better system for controlling the spread of the virus.

I vote c). I don't know when that exactly will happen and neither does anyone else.

I vote c). I don't know when that exactly will happen and neither does anyone else.

c) is the obvious and sensible option. Which is why some on here will disagree with it!

@GoldenOmber

@CaroleFuckinBaskin

It’s clear that C is the only viable option. I find it so strange so that for some ‘Septemebr’ seems the magical month or that they think we will be in lockdown until there’s a vaccine!

Opening the schools now would just be killing people. Everyone knows this. It will lead to more spread. It just depends how much those lives are valued.

This bickering is pointless. Schools won’t open until September especially since we know how exams are doing to be dealt with this year. If they were going to open exams would have gone ahead but now we know they won’t be so that’s a definite sign schools won’t be opening any time soon.

exactly @GoldenOmber it will be (c) it has to be. Schools are a vital part of the economy starting

From speaking to people in NHS and in Education the feeling is whatever happens things will have to start going back to normal in September - I think anyone who thinks things are going to have to try going back to normal by then is clutching at straws. And there will be the potential for the virus to hang over us.

All eyes will be on China who after 76 days are starting to get back to normal (and they really are) and what happens. Because if they can keep in under control and other European countries who are ahead of us.

I will say though again we need antibody testing I am almost certain my two (and me) have had it and that but needs to be done as well

I would say give parents the option, then those with some sense would keep the kids off. The others send them as a sort of natural selection of the stupid, but the kids lives would be at risk.

That would force schools staff in and put them at risk too, though.

The countries who are beginning to talk about opening schools again are talking about continuing social distancing, hugely reducing class sizes, taking temperatures twice daily, regular testing for staff and fitting people with masks.

We can’t just open schools and let 2000 pupils plus 150+ staff back and just see what happens-that will instantly end social distancing.

Our testing regime is inadequate and this would put so many lives at risk. Much more needs to be done to safeguard people than just opening.

@Davincitoad that’s absolutely shocking, I’m so sorry someone said that to you. I have a challenging reception class in a deprived area, who have to have an instruction about 8 times before it sinks in. I absolutely love them and would be out of my mind with worry trying (and failing) to keep them apart. The classroom doesn’t physically allow for the space anyway.

I would never shirk my responsibilities when NHS staff are risking their lives every day, but I would expect to have some kind of PPE because otherwise it’s a huge risk, and anyone who thinks it isn’t has never set foot in a classroom.

I can’t see us being off school until January, but neither can I see us being back before late June. I think being open for the last few weeks in July is just about plausible and, providing the situation is relatively safe, I’d really like to be back for a bit.

I’m not getting my hopes up though. I did a webinar last week with a Head Teacher from Hong Kong and he talked about “false summits”. Apparently in HK one of the problems, in terms of managing the wellbeing and mental health of staff and students, has been dealing with the repeated extensions to school closure. Apparently people cling on to the hope that they’ll be back soon and then the government announces another extension and they are back where they started.

My instinct says late June but I suppose that will very much depend on what happens in Italy and Spain. It looks like they will start cautiously lifting restrictions bit by bit soon. I’m sure our experts will be watching to see the impact there before following suit. They are still quite a way from reopening schools though. From reports I’ve seen about Italy’s plans it looks like it will be factories and production first. Then some shops and people allowed out with social distancing and masks in mid-May. I suppose if that doesn’t cause a spike then they will look at schools some time after that. It will be interesting to see the impact of the first step, as that involves Italy reopening businesses that we’ve allowed to keep running here anyway.

The antibody tests are promising but they need to be proved to be very accurate. A high number of false positives will lead to criticism. Also how long does immunity last.

Sending the children back before September is actually bonkers.

Wuhan, with full on lockdown measures managed to return in 11 weeks, the UK, with partial social distancing and attempting to flatten the curve is hoping to bring the second peak in the summer (June/July) rather than winter flu season and therefore is using the children as the “tap” for herd immunity despite telling us that this is not their strategy.

I don’t want my family or yours as part of the collateral damage, I don’t want our frontline doctors and nurses put through a second wave of unnecessary deaths, I don’t want teachers and support staff dying because they are obliged to work or resign.

Children don’t social distance, teachers can’t be under that stress, NHS staff can’t be under that stress, parents can’t be under that stress.

I want comprehensive community testing, contact tracing, remote learning, as much working from home as possible, altered shift patterns/short hours working and a VACCINE before we plump for a possible short term herd immunity and highly risky strategy for the adult population that no one has any idea of its longevity.

I vote C too as it’s the most sensible option.

I do feel for the teachers but all of us need to understand this virus will not miraculously disappear in September. How many times do we have to say that?
There will still be risk. There will be risk in July, in October, in November etc etc.

You can’t keep yourselves locked away for a year. You have to think about how you will live with this risk and get your head around it.

I like to rationalise and look at statistics. I’m pretty sure my children will have more chance of being killed in a car accident over the next year than this virus. Once we are over the peak and the schools open, whenever that may be I am comfortable with the risk to them sending them in. The benefits will outweigh the risks. I also know we can’t stay locked away for a year.

We know this virus can be unpredictable and yes young people are being affected but to children the risk is still statistically very low that they will have any problems with it.

We need to work out how to manage and live with the risk.

Children won’t understand social distancing in September any more than in June!

There will be a second wave and you cannot hide away until a vaccine.

Great post @Delatron

It's not just about the children, though. They "may" be safe from not catching it, but they can still spread it onwards to everyone else.