3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

This means that the lockdown will persist until one of those becomes available

It really won’t. National lockdown is not sustainable for 12 months.

That’s why we need to be looking at the experience if countries that have succeeded at getting this under control now, so we can plan what the stage after lockdown looks like.

We did eradicate smallpox, yes but it took around 3000 years...

Don't get me wrong, I'm cautiously optimistic that we will eventually curb this, but it's a long game. A second wave is highly likely after lockdown is lifted, and the process will need repeating. It may not feel like it but disease is the biggest threat human beings face. I wish things were different, but they are not and we have to be realistic.

At the end of the day my husband and I will decide when we feel it’s safe for our children to resume their formal education. We pulled them out of school the week before they officially closed and that was the right decision for us as a family.

If it means pulling them out and homeschooling until a vaccine is widely available then we are lucky that we can just about facilitate that. We are also lucky that our children are still very young (6 + 4).

I had to grow up with only one parent as my mother died when I was very young. I’ll do everything in my power to not have my children go through that heartache. I also realise my own experience colours my own viewpoint, but unfortunately we aren’t in the best of health as it is. This has given is reality check as far as that goes so we need to also make lifestyle changes.

Whenever the schools reopen then everyone as parents will have to do the best they can for their own family and make their own choices. That’s all we can do.

@GoldenOmber oh please have a word with yourself, it’s not taking comfort in the worst possible scenario, it’s being a realist.

The Netherlands are plotting an exit strategy absolutely, they’re expecting it to be around 800 days before all restrictions are lifted.

Less if a vaccine is found, but as HIV still isn’t cured after 40 years that isn’t a certainty.

800 days.

We didn’t spend 3000 years trying to eradicate smallpox. Nobody was even really considering it as a possibility until the 20th century. Some people in the 18th century started considering eliminating it from whole cities and countries, then we stepped that up.

We’ll only get a second wave after lockdown if we did s lockdown doing no planning whatsoever. Basically our possible scenarios are:

• lift lockdown and do nothing else: second huge peak, absolutely awful;
• rolling cycle of lockdowns; avoids huge peak but also awful for other reasons;
• use lockdown to buy time to put a comprehensive system in place for controlling spread, probably loads of testing + getting new cases down to near zero + really comprehensive contact tracing. Advantages, we get to go back to some form of normal after lockdown. Disadvantages, does rely on some tech advances plus the government getting its act together, so I’m not counting on anything happening particularly fast here.

it’s not taking comfort in the worst possible scenario, it’s being a realist.

Yes, that’s what people who take comfort in the worst possible scenario tell themselves. And others, clearly.

You’re not ‘being a realist’ if you think it’s possible for a whole country to stay in this kind of lockdown for 12+ months.

They are both worried about the virus, and my eldest is worried about getting behind

It really is up to you as her parent to alleviate her stress. She will follow your and her father’s lead. She will rejoin her classmates and they will all pick up where they left off. To feel more in control of this, she can do the homework set out by her teacher and read read read. She could email her teacher and ask for the teacher’s reassurance too. She could whatsapp her classmates for a chat during the week. It is up to the Gov to do all they can to save her and her family’s lives. It is up to you and her dad to help her through this time and provide reassurance when possible by answering her questions simply and honestly.

Returning to school in the middle of a pandemic will not alleviate her worries. Keeping her sheltered at home, controlling what she can see and hear might.

I’m saying this from a household that as of today have been told there jobs are gone. Nothing to do with the virus, apparently it was their plan all along , but very bad timing for the company to do this now obviously. My job now is to do my best to hide my worries from my children.

*their

Golden At no point have I said that, I said I don’t see how normality can return without a vaccine, which is true. We can reconvene in September and see how we’re doing then.

I’ll remind you, don’t worry. Stay safe and well Golden ✌🏼

@theschoolonthehill

Yes, obviously I'm doing all of that- daily WhatsApp calls with friends, grandparents, regular contact with teachers, keeping up with school work, daily exercise. My eldest lost her oldest friend to a brain tumour 18 months ago, so I'm pretty well versed in alleviating her worries, and answering difficult questions.

The point of my post was to answer all the posts on here which implied that people only want schools to reopen because they hate their kids. not to be made to feel that I'm not doing my best for my children.

not to be made to feel that I'm not doing my best for my children

I'm desperate for schools to reopen.

As somebody who lost a parent at an age younger than your children are now, the ‘best* you can do for your children is to do your utmost to try to ensure they have two living parents, each other, their teachers and the rest of their community when we eventually come out of this. The best chance of achieving this is to stay at home!

I don't know when schools should reopen but expecting that something magical will happen in August and the virus will disappear overnight making it safe to reopen schools in September is naive.

June might be a good idea for reopening for not at risk children / families as it would probably result in the second wave over the summer months when it is hoped, the transmissions might be reduced anyway due to warmer weather. It means schools could be back again in September before closing Nov - Dec for the third wave if necessary. It would be a logistical nightmare though.

As for vaccine, even IF it is available in 12 - 18 months time, and even IF the UK can buy it first, it will take at least a couple months to produce, distribute and vaccinate everyone in the country. So we are looking at 2 years in lockdown?

we need to be looking at the experience if countries that have succeeded at getting this under control now

The Germans did it by mass testing, as did the South Koreans and Singaporeans. However, our government has neither the means, the resources, nor the will to do this. And will not have for many months, even if they wanted to.

@theschoolonthehill

We've left the house once schools closed. Not sure what your issue is with my posts, but I really don't like you judging my parenting. My child has experienced the death of her best friend at 5years old. I am not stupid enough to risk any of our lives, hence why we are fully following guidelines. I am, however, allowed to find it hard, and have hope.

I am, however, allowed to find it hard, and have hope.

We all find it challenging at times. But it is incredibly easy for us to simply stay inside. I have family on the frontline. I find it at odds to read that people are desperate for the schools to reopen when they are trying desperately to save lives without enough of the necessary equipment to do so. They are going to work having been told they will get the virus. They are hearing and reading about their colleagues dying. They are returning home to their families every day knowing they are more than likely going to pass on the virus to them at some stage. Meanwhile we stay inside. That’s it. It is not hard.

I think the positive side of us being behind other countries is we can watch how they reopen. As countries like Italy. Germany, spain will all likely start to slowly lift restrictions first. I think we likely have another month of lock down here at the most., so we can see how they do it and their impacts.

In addition in another month we should have a higher testing capability and be much further on with the anti viral studies currently under way to find a successful treatment. It was said last night in the Uk alone there are now nearly two thousand people in these trials.

People shouldn’t panic though, for those who have a choice financially , they can home school if the schools reopen before they are personally comfortable. For those who don’t have a choice but to work then obviously it’s a lot more difficult.

I doubt schools will reopen for sixth form or colleges reopen till sept, unless for some resits. Below that age range I doubt it will be mandatory to send them till sept, and whatever happen the vulnerable group who have been contacted will continue to be shielded for the twelve weeks at a least.

So disappointing to see pp stating teachers won’t go back as risking their lives. This is how many nhs workers feel but we’re still going to work in very difficult and stressful situations. I’m struggling with this expectation/ difference no amount of clapping will make up for this.
I wouldn’t dream of not going to work, I have not heard one colleague making excuses why they can’t work or that services shouldn’t run.

So disappointing to see pp stating teachers won’t go back as risking their lives. This is how many nhs workers feel but we’re still going to work in very difficult and stressful situations. I’m struggling with this expectation/ difference no amount of clapping will make up for this.
I wouldn’t dream of not going to work, I have not heard one colleague making excuses why they can’t work or that services shouldn’t run

I can't speak for people in other schools but in ours, the head asked in a group message for volunteers to keep the school (hub) open over the Easter holidays, over 2/3 of the staff replied saying they'd do it.... within ten mins of her asking. To my knowledge, nobody refused. We'll be there, providing our kids and families with everything they need both in the hubs now and as soon as schools open. Please don't tar everybody with the same brush...... and keep up the good work

I am quite sure most medics would not want to see people unnecessarily in hospital or dying

I am quite sure most medics would not want to work at the current levels , with the current levels of stress for any longer than necessary

Both argue for keeping schools off until the risk to teachers, children and their parents can be effectively controlled at a suitably low level

@Matildathehun77 I didn’t say everyone, I know some teachers have been brilliant.

I don’t think we’ve an opinion yet in the nhs when schools should go back. Of course it’s correct to be closed at the moment- it’s all very uncertain, I’m pretty sure no one would advocate long term closure. Your comment was interesting - I’m going to ask opinions today.

I'm happy for it to take as long as it takes. No point speculating on how long this will take because no one knows.

I laugh at posters complaining about the 'obsessive' handwashing rules. These are nor extra rules, have been the norm in my family all my life (although until now I didn't do the proper 20 seconds)... this is the reason why I'm not supporting the schools opening too soon and me going back to be near anyone again.
People will go back to their dirty habits as soon as they can and spread germs aroubd again.

There were threads and threads urging for schools to close, and now they want a return to school for children to go back. Sometimes you lot are strange

I am really struggling bro understand why so many people think it must be September, that anything before then will be highly dangerous and irresponsible, but in September all will be fine.

Keep everyone under lockdown until September and the damage to the economy will be horrific. It will take decades to recover. That will kill people.

Send everyone back to school and work in September and the second peak will come about six weeks after that - so mid Oct, just as we're getting into flu season and the NHS has fewer resources and is already starting into its annual overstretched in winter period. That will kill people.

Schools going back in late May / June will kill people. Yes. All of the options will kill people.

There is NO scenario available to us that allows us to avoid killing lots of people. That is the situation we are in.