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3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

487 replies

AlmostThereKeepMoving · 07/04/2020 21:00

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

OP posts:
riceuten · 08/04/2020 00:02

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

Er, I work for a large London LA and that is precisely our plan. I think you're wishing that the above were the case and that the virus miraculously disappears, but I think you perhaps need to be a little bit more realistic than that

GoldenOmber · 08/04/2020 00:03

If so, why do you want you want them to go back to school?

Yes I am a parent.

I don’t want my kids to go back to school next week. I do want them to go back at some point before there’s a vaccine because that’s 12 months away at best and probably longer. I want the government to have a decent exit strategy in place for lockdown that will keep cases low and infection rate low, so that this can happen.

Please can you not imply that anyone who is looking forward to an end to lockdown doesn’t care about the safety of our children?

EskiSummerleaze · 08/04/2020 00:09

If you actually read the lancet study, rather than the BBC interpretation of it, you will see that is not what was said at all.
Hence the different 'ifs'
There's not going to be a perfect study because this is all so unprecedented, we're obviously just going to have to wait and see

MargotB7 · 08/04/2020 00:10

Please can you not imply that anyone who is looking forward to an end to lockdown doesn’t care about the safety of our children?

Why are you looking forward to lockdown if it is the helping the NHS?

beebijobes · 08/04/2020 00:14

My friend is a teacher in a big London secondary, her school is looking at all sorts of ideas including being open in Aug. Nothing is impossible

MargotB7 · 08/04/2020 00:15

Ending lock down

GoldenOmber · 08/04/2020 00:15

Why are you looking forward to lockdown if it is the helping the NHS?

Oh FFS I give up.

beebijobes · 08/04/2020 00:19

@MargotB7 how long do you think lockdown can go on for?

MargotB7 · 08/04/2020 00:21

Oh FFS I give up

The advert from the NHS has just been on.

Stay Home, Save Lives.

You know better.

Leflic · 08/04/2020 00:22

The situation is unprecedented though. What makes you think the politicians know how it will pan out.
My guess is they have Plan A, B and C and will see what happens.
Exams were cancelled early as that alleviated the problem of schools closing at some unknown point.
As long as the rate of infection drops sufficiently by May I think they’ll re open them. There’s masses of supply staff if cover is needed for isolating.

buttermilkwaffles · 08/04/2020 00:23

mobile.twitter.com/DrSamSims/status/1247445729439895555

GoldenOmber · 08/04/2020 00:23

MargotB7 if you genuinely think that looking forward to the end of lockdown is the same thing as wanting the disease to kill people, I do not know what to tell you. Do you not think NHS staff are quite looking forward to coming out the other side of this as well? Do you think they want to carry on like this indefinitely?

Iateallthecookies000 · 08/04/2020 00:24

There’s masses of supply staff if cover is needed for isolating.

Nobody is going to risk their lives to babysit your children. Sorry but they just won’t.

buttermilkwaffles · 08/04/2020 00:24

mobile.twitter.com/BuchholzJoel/status/1247550896596299776

Appuskidu · 08/04/2020 00:27

There’s masses of supply staff if cover is needed for isolating.

We couldn’t get any supply teachers on the 19/20th March-there wasn’t one to be found in any agency in our county.

I think saying there are masses of them is unhelpful.

theschoolonthehill · 08/04/2020 00:28

without schools seeing them could lead to awful outcomes.

There will be awful outcomes for a far bigger number if the schools were open.

Out of curiosity have any of the posters advocating the re-opening of schools and end to the lockdown seen the effects of CV19 on a personal level? A family member is a health care professional and has the view that we are just getting started with the rise of this, a view shared by many of their colleagues.

GoldenOmber · 08/04/2020 00:33

Nobody here has suggested just tossing the lockdown out of the window and letting the virus run rampant. What people have suggested is that we do need something to come after lockdown, because we can’t stay locked down until there’s a vaccine.

The best analogy I’ve heard is that lockdown is like a life raft when you’re drowning. It’s good to get to and it’ll save you, but you can’t just sit on it forever, you need to navigate to shore.

Devlesko · 08/04/2020 00:34

I would say give parents the option, then those with some sense would keep the kids off. The others send them as a sort of natural selection of the stupid, but the kids lives would be at risk.
Maybe couples could think of going pt and sharing childcare so schools don't have to open too soon.

Wehttam · 08/04/2020 00:38

GoldenOmber great analogy, only we have no oars and the waves are huge.

Devlesko · 08/04/2020 00:39

child poverty has lifelong health effects

Rather than short term effects of them dying. What a stupid thing to say.

Waah · 08/04/2020 00:39

Some dreadfully judgmental posts here. I'm a mu m of a year 2 child and an October born 4yr old, due together reception in September. I'm desperate for schools to reopen. My 7yr is missing her friends and teachers, and my 4yr old is going to have a very tough start to school, with no transition,and missing out on the last few months of pre-school. They are both worried about the virus, and my eldest is worried about getting behind. She's started to have trouble sleeping, and often tells us how sad she is. they mental health is being affected.

I think my kids are the best things in the world. I'd love to be able to just enjoy the time with them, and fill our days with fun, but I am desperately trying to save my business, which will not survive u til September - dance school that teaches 300 local children, so no chance of opening before schools do - and having completely lost my wage, my husband and I are very very worried for the future. He is still at work every day, so I am managing all this alone. My mental health is suffering. I am not desperate to 'shove my kids back to school', nor do I 'hate spending time' with my kids. like most working parents, we're very scared for what the future looks like for our kids.

The economy is not an abstract thing and the government is not going to endlessly prop it up- if we can't attempt to regain some.normality soon, the future for all of us, and our children, is very uncertain. Mostly for women, as they will be the ones that have to give up their jobs if continued childcare is required.

No one want to send their children back to school if it's not safe to do so, but wishing for normality does not mean we hate our kids.

Iateallthecookies000 · 08/04/2020 00:40

Sorry to hear that but lives are at stake which is much more important.

GoldenOmber · 08/04/2020 00:43

We wiped out smallpox once, Wehttam. A disease far worse than this, far more infectious and more fatal, and it’s gone. Does not kill a single person any more. We did that. And we did it with technology less advanced than we have today.

I appreciate you are finding some comfort from embracing the worst possible scenario, but leave some room for others to find hope elsewhere. Chins and South Korea successfully using test-and-trace strategies to curb the disease, several European countries already setting out their exit strategies from lockdown. Other people are finding a way to shore; no reason we can’t, too.

starlightgazers · 08/04/2020 00:45

Not RTFT but I'm struggling to see what is 'promising' about the current figures, especially given they are only currently showing hospital deaths. We are not even at the peak yet, so it is way too early to think about reducing lockdown measures. The NHS will not cope if measures are released too soon, and mass death will be the result, which would also ruin the economy/ exacerbate rates on ill MH/ all the other things people are complaining will be caused by lockdown.

A lot of predictions people are making seem to be based on wishful thinking/ naivety around the power of a pandemic than based on actual fact.

Mohster · 08/04/2020 00:46

I think everyone has to understand that at present we are on lockdown and the deaths are increasing. If the lockdown works then the nos should reduce in about 2-3 weeks. This is solely because of the lockdown and nothing else. There is no cure, no treatment and no vaccine. This means that the lockdown will persist until one of those becomes available because it is common sense to realise that if the nos go down because we all stay at home, then the nos will go back up if we don't stay at home. Furthermore, it has to be understood that whilst the majority of children do not suffer from the disease they can carry the disease and spread it to others. There is also the case that younger people are now at greater risk and also people who were cleared have then regained the infection poss as it remains dormant. So until these factors are studied and clarified it is important not to be relaxed and think we can start to carry on life as before.

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