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Original poster

3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

487 replies

AlmostThereKeepMoving · 07/04/2020 21:00

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

OP posts:
Quartz2208 · 07/04/2020 23:23

adc.bmj.com/content/archdischild/89/8/739.full.pdf

But the lancet study is not a good one! But whether it is June or September (and I am leaning towards them trying for a period at the end of the summer term to trial out stuff) measures are likely to be put into place

GoldenOmber · 07/04/2020 23:24

Don't be so sarcastic or try and be funny - December 2021.

I'm not being sarcastic or trying to be funny, please don't 'LOL' at me.

It is entirely possible that we won't have a vaccine before December 2021. Really. Hopefully it'll be faster, people are working flat out on this, but it is still entirely possible that we won't have a vaccine we can give to all our children until then.

So we need to find better ways to manage the outbreak until the vaccine comes along. Lockdown isn't the solution, it's the means to buy us time to do what e.g. South Korea have done.

Lianepl · 07/04/2020 23:27

This was completely mangled by the press. There are 3 key points:

  1. The economic cost of school closure is high (well, yes...)
  2. There isn't much evidence to go on
  3. ...and the evidence we have is consistent with a very broad range of impacts of school closures (ranging from very little to much more significant)

This particular study says that "previous coronavirus outbreaks...provide LIMITED information about the effectiveness of school closures" (caps my own). It also says "Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results".

The core finding appears to be that school closures ALONE will reduce deaths by 2-4% - this is a LOT of people dead who would not have been had schools remained closed.

Also - This is school closures ALONE. This is CRUCIAL - if schools open, then many parents who currently have to stay home, will not do so. It will be a massive catalyst in Britain reopening for business. If your darling child is back at school, why shouldn't you meet your best mate for a gingerbread latte - if the government thinks your kid is safe, then it's all ok, isn't it?

Sorry folks, today's excitement has been brought to you courtesy of lazy journalism 101. Rest assured: if they do decide to open schools early it will not be because it's safe - it will be because they've decided that a few million people's lives are simply not important.

Devlesko · 07/04/2020 23:29

The kids health is going to be compromised for the economy, thank fuck mine is off until September. God help them all if they send them back. Sad
I suppose so many need the childcare.

GoldenOmber · 07/04/2020 23:30

Denmark looking at reopening schools after Easter - www.ft.com/content/0d0f4789-63dd-47d2-8d74-bb2334ea3b0e

Should think looking at their experience and the experience of other countries will prove very important to whatever we decide to do.

theschoolonthehill · 07/04/2020 23:30

I am enjoying having the children at home but they are missing it dreadfully.

I was hoping they would be back in September but I read today that third level are planning their September courses to go online so I have reservations that it will be September after all.

Not a chance they will be back this academic year.

Goatymcgoaty · 07/04/2020 23:31

@Lianepl but if the government don’t care about a few million lives, why did they bother to lock down in the first place? Why not let the peak soar and kill the estimated 500,000, after which anyone left alive is immune? It would’ve been much quicker cheaper and easier for them.

theschoolonthehill · 07/04/2020 23:32

Should think looking at their experience and the experience of other countries will prove very important to whatever we decide to do.

Why would you think that? The UK didn't look at other countries experience before delaying lockdown?

GoldenOmber · 07/04/2020 23:32

The kids health is going to be compromised for the economy

Keeping the nation's children at home is compromising the health of lots of children. (How many children get their only hot meals a day at school? or are only safe at school?) Tanking the economy is bad for the health of children; child poverty has lifelong health effects.

Basically all options here are a bit shit, so the best thing we can do is to find the least worst option going forward.

MargotB7 · 07/04/2020 23:34

So we need to find better ways to manage the outbreak until the vaccine comes along.

I can't wait for this to happen.

ChickLitLover · 07/04/2020 23:34

You will have to send your kids back to school and go out in public while there is still risk from this virus.

No, I won’t have to send my kids back to school... but thanks for your opinion. 🙄

LesLavandes · 07/04/2020 23:40

My son's boarding school won't open until at least September. He doesn't know this yet. In house, they are like a little family.

Wehttam · 07/04/2020 23:41

Sorry to burst the hope filled bubbles of so many here but there’s no chance they’re going back before September. Let’s wait and see how Denmark get on with loosening their lockdown, if the numbers start rising sharply it’s back to square one and every other country will be exactly the same.

Until there is a vaccine it’s pretty much impossible for normality to resume unless you don’t mind risking your life on a daily basis and never being able to get a hospital or doctors appointment because they’re overrun with COVID19 patients.

MyDcAreMarvel · 07/04/2020 23:42

What a terrifying prospect, thankfully it won’t happen. It will be September.

Devlesko · 07/04/2020 23:43

You will have to send your kids back to school
Erm, who said school was compulsory, has the law been changed Grin

Mine is back in September, at the earliest, already had the email, thank God.

Appuskidu · 07/04/2020 23:45

That research was pretty crap!

GoldenOmber · 07/04/2020 23:50

And sorry to burst your gloom bubble, Wehttam, but there is absolutely zero chance we’re all staying in lockdown until there’s a vaccine. It is not sustainable.

I see Norway is also planning to reopen nurseries and primary schools after Easter and Austria soon after. We’ll have to see how that develops.

Quartz2208 · 07/04/2020 23:50

@wettham but that is the point the Gvt will I suspect at some point be asked to risk COVID 19. Life to a certain extent is being risked every single day we just have learnt to live with the risks, accidents in the home, road traffic accidents etc cause huge numbers of deaths but we live with those. At some point it will be a choice to go out and live with it or not (and an awful lot will go out and live with it)

We have been pathetic at testing and contact tracing we need to prioritise that because that is the way through. That will be the reason for a September start because otherwise once the first wave has been suppressed no other time is safer than the others

Antibody tests will help I am 50/50 on whether myself and my two have already had it and a test that shows we have would personally make life easier.

Everyexitisanentrance · 07/04/2020 23:53

How will social distancing work in schools? We have some narrow corridors and stairs - never mind about the size of the class rooms! IT rooms will be useless. How are staff going to check progress? What about the number of children on school buses?

MargotB7 · 07/04/2020 23:57

GoldenOmber

Are you a parent?

If so, why do you want you want them to go back to school?

Wehttam · 07/04/2020 23:58

Golden gloom bubble Lol

Quartz there’s risk and then there’s this. If unchecked it will just pick off the old and weak and then those with underlying health issues at every opportunity it gets. I just can’t see how we can function without a vaccine, it will be like walking through a field in a lightning storm every day.

notdaddycool · 07/04/2020 23:58

They will want children back for a bit of the summer term if at all possible, there are some really vulnerable kids out there and going March - Sept without schools seeing them could lead to awful outcomes.

EskiSummerleaze · 07/04/2020 23:58

I think if school closures does have little impact on the virus spreading then it makes sense to open schools when possible
If school closures has a huge impact on the virus spreading then it would make sense to keep them closed
A second wave in august would be inherently better than during flu season

Appuskidu · 08/04/2020 00:02

I think if school closures does have little impact on the virus spreading then it makes sense to open schools when possible

If you actually read the lancet study, rather than the BBC interpretation of it, you will see that is not what was said at all.

Forgone90 · 08/04/2020 00:02

People cannot live the rest of their lives in fear of this... In march 1 in 20 deaths was caused by COVID 19.. Meaning 95% of people that died did so of something else.. We don't cower away from everybody because of these other things... Im sorry I'm on this earth to live my life not just be kept in house arrest indefinitely!