Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

992 replies

Barracker · 03/04/2020 18:10

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions. Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
56
ScrimpshawTheSecond · 04/04/2020 19:51

Re BMI - I compared average BMI spread over population to hospital admissions with Covid a few threads back. There was a slight raised risk, it seemed, but not much, mostly it mirrored the distribution of BMIs in the general population.

Caveat - just another clueless person on the internet, no expertise in this area whatsoever.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2020 20:08

I think many people are desperately trying to explain why younger people are dying
and fixing on ways that they are not "typical"

From what doctors have tabulated, the increased risk of being overweight seems to be significant for BMI 40+, i.e. morbidly orbese
which is still a fairly small minority

The original table of significant comorbidities from China didn't include BMI - they probably have even fewer morbidly obese than in the West

However, some Western govts have expanded the list, inlcuding BMI.

This is the UK govt list of increased risk

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/new-guidance-lists-overweight-people-17936652

•	People aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)
•	Those under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds) chronic (long-term) respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitis
•	chronic heart disease, such as heart failure
•	chronic kidney disease
•	chronic liver disease, such as hepatitis
•	chronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsy diabetes
•	problems with your spleen – for example, sickle cell disease or if you have had your spleen removed
•	a weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets or chemotherapy
•	<span class="italic">being seriously overweight (a BMI of 40 or above)</span>
•	those who are pregnant

even higher risk
• People who have received an organ transplant and remain on ongoing immunosuppression medication
• People with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radiotherapy
• People with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia who are at any stage of treatment
• People with severe chest conditions such as cystic fibrosis or severe asthma (requiring hospital admissions or courses of steroid tablets)
• People with severe diseases of body systems, such as severe kidney disease (dialysis)

theAntsareMyFriends · 04/04/2020 20:32

This thread is great and so informative. Has anyone mentioned this website: covid19cct.shinyapps.io/covid19cct/

Sorry if the link is not click as I'm on a phone. It's really interesting. I've only looked at a few places but it looks like cases have peaked in some places eg Croydon but not others eg. Oxfordshire.

I'd love it if he did a graph for deaths rate too but its still interesting to see.

Apologies if its already been mentioned somewhere already.

newyeardelurker · 04/04/2020 20:42

Hi is it possible that BAME population is over represented because covid 19 is more prevalent in London which has a much higher BAME population than the UK overall? Up to 50% in some boroughs now I think.

whenwillthemadnessend · 04/04/2020 20:44

Place marking Blush

MarshaBradyo · 04/04/2020 20:44

Good point NewYear.

Males are interesting, do more work post dc (I could google I know), have more underlying conditions, exhibit riskier behaviour?

nauticant · 04/04/2020 20:55

Because of the up and down numbers explained by BigChocFrenzy, you'll see that in the main Financial Times graph, rather than using a single day's number, a 7-day rolling average is used instead. This means that that graph is more representative of the trends but lags by a few days.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2020 20:57

In the USA figures, African Americans were very over-represented in the cases and deaths, compared to their % of the population
e.g. I posted a link upthread to Michigan

However, with the USA, health care is much poorer for those on low income, who are therefore in poorer health to start with
(as in the UK, but far more extreme in the US)

nauticant · 04/04/2020 21:01

One reason why I think younger people die is because the "random killer" aspect of Coronavirus is a "cytokine storm". This might not correlate to general level of health but might be related to other factors.

www.newscientist.com/term/cytokine-storm/#

As someone who has occasionally unpredictable immune reactions, this is motivating me to be even more careful.

Quarantinequeen · 04/04/2020 21:01

@DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG where do those helpful stats you posted on page 5 come from please?

nauticant · 04/04/2020 21:03

Having posted that I had another quick look and found this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome#History

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2020 21:11

There has been previous research that males are generally more susceptible to viruses,
both catching them and the severity of symptoms suffered.

(ref in the previous thread to the Dressing Gown of Doom ! )

As the death disparity holds for all age groups, it's probably not due to hormones,
but some scientists think it may be related to the XX chromosone women have

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/men-are-much-more-likely-to-die-from-coronavirus-but-why

there is a growing belief among experts that more fundamental biological factors are also at play.

“The growing observation of increased mortality in men is holding true across China, Italy, Spain.
We’re seeing this across very diverse countries and cultures,”

Previous research, including by Klein, has revealed that men have lower innate antiviral immune responses to a range of infections including hepatitis C and HIV.

“Their immune system may not initiate an appropriate response when it initially sees the virus,”

many genes that regulate the immune system are encoded on the X chromosome (of which men have one, and women have two)
and so it is possible that some genes involved in the immune response are more active in women than in men.

MarshaBradyo · 04/04/2020 21:13

Interesting BigChoc

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2020 21:14

I wonder if it would be possible in the future to create drugs to activate those genes - when known ! - on the X chromosone,
which control immune response to viruses

Potentially very dangerous, ntbo, so more likely a treatment in 30 years time for COVID and whatever nasties we have around then

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 04/04/2020 21:27

They are from the second weekly ICNARC report, QuarantineQ

www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19

Nauticant - my daughter survived one of the Cytokine storm syndromes, HLH, in 2018. Hers was triggered by the extremely common Epstein Barr virus (EBV-sHLH). It’s why she’s in the ‘shielded group’ now.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30628-0/fulltext

Investigations continue as to why a usually mild virus caused a near-fatal response for my daughter, but she was healthy before and has been more or less healthy since remission (3 occasions where relapse looked possible); she was ventilated for several days, 5 hospital admissions and had a whole year off school. Only went back in September! There is a version of HLH that is x linked inherited (XIAP) which is why I wonder if this virus has found a similar gene fault to exploit, as x inheritance affects men more than women en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X-linked_recessive_inheritance#Sex_differences_in_phenotype/genotypes_and_frequency

My DD’s might be related to perforin deficiency (she’s hypermobile) but it’s all under investigation (she seems a haematologist/oncologist, an immunologist and a rheumatologist but everything is halted at the moment due to the virus).

It’s why I’m following COVID19 so closely! I started looking at it to try an figure out her risk factors.

Some of the newer drugs used as a second line for HLH are being trialled for cytokine storm in COVID19.

Quarantinequeen · 04/04/2020 21:36

Thanks @DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG

nauticant · 04/04/2020 21:46

Researchers are suggesting that those lines of investigation could provide intermediate therapeutic treatments well in advance of a vaccine DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG. Not for everyone, but maybe for the younger and/or "healthy" cohort.

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 04/04/2020 21:47

www.cebm.net/covid-19/registered-trials-and-analysis/

IL-1and IL-6 inhibitors have been used for HLH in patients with underlying rheumatological conditions (sometimes called MAS).

Types of Cytokine storm syndromes: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

A cytokine storm is what happened to the poor chaps in that drug trial that went wrong a few years back, it was for a similar drug to those that are in clinical trial for COVID19 now.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35766627

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theralizumab

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunotherapy#Immunomodulators

tidsskriftet.no/en/2020/03/debatt/haemophagocytic-lymphohistiocytosis-covid-19-cases

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 04/04/2020 22:16

Here’s a graphic from Birmingham university that I saved (to share with my HLH Facebook support group) -

The weird thing is that previously HLH has been rare, but far more common in children - it’s divided into two groups, primary (aka familial, inherited, or genetic) and secondary (aka acquired) with primary usually being diagnosed in babies. Lately, doctors have started to think of the two types as a spectrum rather than two distinct groups.

Secondary HLH in adults usually has a malignant trigger (mostly Leukemias and Lymphomas). It’s rare enough that in the US, most adults with it have their treatment supervised by one of the two paediatric treatment centres (Cincinnati Children’s Hospital and Texas Children’s Hospital).

The question amongst all of us in the HLH survivor/parent support group, as I’m sure you can imagine, is why is this triggering a similar condition to HLH, but almost exclusively in adults?

I have seen UK doctors on Twitter saying that all critical admissions for COVID19 are being screened for HLH/cytokine storm by testing ferritin levels. These are usually between 12-300 but can go absolutely bonkers in HLH (60,000 to 90,000 being common in HLH kids). It’s not a proper diagnosis (my DD’s diagnosis was confirmed by bone marrow aspiration which probably isn’t practical/safe in the current situation) but ferritin is good, cheap, screen and enough to start speculative treatment. HLH progresses to complete organ failure very rapidly, so prompt diagnosis and treatment is vital.

sHLH can be triggered by all kinds of things but the most common trigger is EBV - 95% of the world has had Epstein Barr Virus, most of us won’t have noticed it being anything other than a cold type virus, but in teenagers it can cause glandular fever, and in some cases, it goes on to cause cancer: www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/causes-of-cancer/infections-eg-hpv-and-cancer/does-ebv-cause-cancer

I try not to speculate re: COVID peaks and curves and death rates etc, but it’s hard not to worry if some of these mild COVID19 cases will go on to cause a massive uptick in some cancers in ten or 20 years time.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3
Barracker · 04/04/2020 22:23
      • DAILY UPDATE * * * •Saturday APRIL 4th *

Total UK cases: 41,903
New UK cases: 3,735
Total UK Deaths: 4,313
New UK Deaths: 708

OP posts:
TwinkleMerrick · 04/04/2020 22:25

Now following :)

Barracker · 04/04/2020 22:31

This is the BMI graph from the critical care analysis. I don't care much for the format, but it shows a skew from the norm for non-Covid-19 viral pneumonia.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2020 22:43

Thanks, Barracker

Sorry, which is blue and which is orange curve ?

Just thinking,
1 month ago today, the Uk had ZERO deaths (registered at least) from COVID^
Now 4,313 total

Barracker · 04/04/2020 22:53

On cytokine storms and COVID-19:

I stumbled upon some early papers written in China suggesting that cytokine storms were not quite the culprit previously thought but instead low lymphocytes were a significant feature and predictor of disease severity in COVID-19.

The present study indicates significantly different clinical features between COVID-19-caused and non-COVID-19-caused pneumonia, especially in terms of lymphocytopenia and organ injury. Notably, correlation analysis demonstrates that tissue damage in COVID-19 patients is attributed to virus infection itself rather than uncontrolled inflammatory responses ("cytokine storm"). These findings provide new insights for developing efficient therapeutic strategies against COVID-19 infection.

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024885v1.full.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjnzNqM3s_oAhV1oFwKHUPKCIoQFjAAegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw0olHkinunLF5BLc0mWokVF&cshid=1586036676819" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">paper

Since I first read this paper a couple of weeks ago I realise there are now quite a few more discussing the same thing:

Lymphopenia predicts disease severity of COVID-19

OP posts:
Barracker · 04/04/2020 22:58

which is blue and which is orange curve ?
It would have been useful if I hadn't cropped the key out probably Blush

Orange is age and sex matched Gen pop
Blue line is Patients critically ill with viral pneumonia (non-COVID-19), 2017-19
Blue bars are Patients critically ill with confirmed COVID-19

It's not a great chart, the numbers and percentages in the report are better to see the difference.

OP posts: