Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Plus the 5 a pp posted for Northern Ireland

As the peak has been talked about as being this weekend, unfortunately the numbers will continue to rise to 1000 a day for a period of time as we aren't even close to the highest numbers we will hit. Very sad news though

UK 936

Words are inadequate. Can’t find anything to type.

It’s surreal and so beyond what any of us ever thought we would see in our lifetime.

My worry is that there is no foreseeable solution until we have a vaccine, even when we pass this peak once everyone is out and about it’ll start rising again.

It’s difficult to see that number today and not get angry having just read that Reuter’s article about our arrogant, botched response and the article about New Zealand’s pro-active response.

When this is all over there must be some reflection.

"5 dead in NI"

I was distracted and had a flashback to the death reports during the Troubles

Now we get daily deaths reported from every UK nation

Yes I read the New Zealand article too. And as much as I’m really impressed at the proactive stance of the PM they are going to be very vulnerable to outside infection once the world starts travelling again. New Zealand is economically dependant on tourism. Fingers crossed for a vaccine in 12-18 months.

Does anyone know how Sweden are getting on? They are massively gambling with lives keeping everything open.

Dreadful about the number of deaths, though not unexpected

A bit confused about the peak, however ... originally easter was supposed to be the peak of new cases, but now it seems to be spoken of as when actual deaths peak. Given that this was always going to lag behind the growth of cases, can we assume the actual number of new infections is definitely slowing down?

Reports I've read are that peak will be in 7-10 days, not this WE

(but still hoping that horrendous peak of nearly 3,000 predicted by IHME is way off the mark though)

Peak deaths in the case of the UK at least,
because the testing program fiasco makes it difficult to judge by the UK cases curve flattening

Today's (England) stats look bad. 135 deaths from yesterday. That is the first time 100+ deaths have been announced the same day.

Last few days:
(by date of report, reports to previous day 5pm)
2nd 561
3rd 604
4th 637
5th 555
6th 403
7th 758
8th 828

Understand that the 6th's report would be understated due to Sunday effect of reporting. Saturday's also slightly understated for similar reason.

There is no apparent growth if you consider that 637 deaths were reported on the 4th, so over 5 days that would be 3185 deaths, whereas the actual reports are only 3181.

However while this likely reflects changes in reporting patterns over days and weeks, it seems highly unlikely that the big jump in first day reports reflects anything other than a big increase in deaths.

South West still much better than other areas, will probably change over coming weeks as arseholes go to their second homes to kill people.

A bit confused about the peak, however ... originally easter was supposed to be the peak of new cases, but now it seems to be spoken of as when actual deaths peak

March 24 was the lockdown, or 20 March if you count school closure.

3-5 days in incubation, 14 days more to death, 2-3 days to reporting in daily stats.
So sometime around 20+ days, 9 April or thereafter.

Assuming a Mother's day transmission rise, which is somewhat possible in that while you had to be really fucking stupid to meet your mother on 22 March, and it can't have been that many stupid people, the negative is all those aging women (and their husbands often) coming into contact with very-low-risk people, and for the 60+ group you are something like 100x more likely to die than 20-somethings. So could be a peak around Easter Sunday.

I have a friend who works for NHS. Apparently they're working on the basis that the peak time for beds will be towards the end of April. If they're correct, we have a way to go yet.

20 days is the earliest possible peak, but maybe not the most likely

• other Uk regions peaking later than London, family members infect each other, people can linger on in ICU etc

Germany locked down on 16 March and Merkel warned early on not to expect peak before Easter Sunday, 12 April, maybe later

IHME estimates UK peak on 17 April, German peak on 19 April
Countries have a bit different curve form and on FT as well

Let's see - and also noone get over-excited by low deaths over Easter

• the data collators may be home some extra days with their Easter eggs

However, that could be because by then a lot of beds/equipment will already be in use, and there will still be people coming in, not because a lot more people will come at the end of April.

I have a friend who works for NHS. Apparently they're working on the basis that the peak time for beds will be towards the end of April. If they're correct, we have a way to go yet.

Peak beds shouldn’t be the same as peak deaths though, as the total numbers requiring beds will continue to rise even as daily numbers of admissions fall, as people will tend to require beds for a week, often much longer.

The problem is we have no way of telling when new cases peak as we’ve been under testing so much. If daily tests go from 10,000 to 100,000 new cases will look like they are going up with no way of really knowing what the true picture is.

Speed of response in different countries

(time from first death)

I suspect today's death numbers contain some carry over from the weekend. Monday's figure were only 11% up from Friday, whereas today we've gone up 19% in 24 hours.

My guess is that we're closer to the peak than we think.

I hope so. The 5-day average hasn't gone up as someone upthread pointed out.

And by that I mean the 5-day average is the same as the 1-day figure for Saturday.

@pocketem
Very Interesting chart
Where did you find it? What is the 0*?