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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

992 replies

Barracker · 03/04/2020 18:10

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions. Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
56
loobyloo1234 · 08/04/2020 13:10

Could anyone point me in the direction of any articles that discuss the impact of BMI and the virus? I see so many photos of people that have passed away from it now and it does seem a higher BMI does appear to be an issue when it comes to fighting it. I just wondered if there were any articles or studies that discuss this further

NotDavidTennant · 08/04/2020 13:17

Comparisons across race/ethnicity are not likely to be very accurate unless the many confounding factors are taking into account.

In the UK, BAME communities are more likely on average to live in dense urban areas than White British people, so all other things being equal you would expect higher numbers of BAME people to be infected.

Floopsy · 08/04/2020 13:30

Some interesting charts and data on Covid 19 from the Belgian health authority.

epistat.wiv-isp.be/covid/covid-19.html

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 08/04/2020 13:36

I don’t know about articles but BMI over 40 is on the .gov vulnerable list:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

And there is the ICNARC data on critical care patients:

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/76a7364b-4b76-ea11-9124-00505601089b

Image: column one is confirmed CV19 and column two is ‘viral pneumonia 2017-2019)

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 08/04/2020 13:36

Doh!

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 08/04/2020 13:39

Here’s the same data set on ethnicity, rather than BMI:

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3
loobyloo1234 · 08/04/2020 13:41

@Floopsy

Yes just looking at that now. Interesting that there are more 'female' cases but more 'male ' deaths. I guess the UK will have a report like this somewhere along the line ... ? (won't hold my breath)

BigChocFrenzy · 08/04/2020 13:43

Less access to healthcare, as they are more likely to be poor
This means they start off on average in a worse state of health and then also receive worse care for CV

or indeed no care.

In the USA, having no health insurance can be the most dangerous "pre-existing condition"
whether you are poor & black or poor & white

e.g. This 17-yr-old with COVID died because of no health insurance

  • legally a child, not even old enough to buy a beer:

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/17-year-old-dies-coronavirus-California-Lancaster-15161761.php

A 17-year-old Southern California boy who tested positive for coronavirus and died this week didn't have health insurance and was denied care at an urgent care center,
according to the mayor of Lancaster.

Lancaster Mayor R. Rex Parris confirmed the boy's death in a y*
and said the urgent care facility referred him to the local public hospital.
Hospitals cannot refuse treatment over payment in their emergency departments.

"En route to AV Hospital, he went into cardiac arrest,"the mayor said. "They were able to revive him and keep him alive for about six hours.
But by the time he got there, it was too late."

Parris emphasized the need to practice social distancing and keep kids and teenagers home.
He said the incident is a reminder that once a coronavirus patient goes into respiratory issues and has trouble breathing and a fever,
it's important to call a doctor immediately.

"He'd been sick for a few days.
He had no previous health conditions," the mayor said.
"The Friday before he died, he was healthy. He was socializing with his friends. By Wednesday, he was dead."

LeeMiller · 08/04/2020 13:44

Thanks so much for these threads. Following from Italy and have learned a lot.

I was interested to read this about the Greek response (very early lockdown), it struck me that humility was what was lacking from the UK's response as detailed in that Reuters article.
www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/04/greece-flattened-coronavirus-curve-200407191043404.html

WhyNotMe40 · 08/04/2020 13:51

Oh that poor poor boy

Sexnotgender · 08/04/2020 14:09

Yes just looking at that now. Interesting that there are more 'female' cases but more 'male ' deaths. I guess the UK will have a report like this somewhere along the line ... ? (won't hold my breath)

I definitely wouldn’t hold your breath, I saw somewhere the uk weren’t keeping sex based data😱

Al1Langdownthecleghole · 08/04/2020 14:12

V late to these threads due to real life, but have read as much as I can, and am finding them interesting and sane.

I half-heard, I think on The Today Programme this morning, a discussion about patients on ventilators. It would seem a number of patients who were put on ventilators in Italy several weeks ago are still on them, and it set me thinking about the different criteria for ventilation / ITU admission between countries.

In the UK, patients are usually only ventilated if there is a positive expectation that they will be able to come off the ventilator, so our statistics will include the deaths of people who were unsuitable for ventilation. If some other countries have a lower threshold for vented patients, there may be groups of patients whose deaths occur at a longer time after infection. I have no idea if the numbers are statistically significant, but it's another factor when comparing data.

Zofloramummy · 08/04/2020 14:24

931 deaths reported today in England, Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland yet to release figures.

DressingGownofDoom · 08/04/2020 14:24

5 dead in NI

ACDC4578 · 08/04/2020 14:25

Big numbers again. We will be tipping a 1000 this weekend for sure

EmMac7 · 08/04/2020 14:26

Jesus.

GreyGardens88 · 08/04/2020 14:26

Shit

Zofloramummy · 08/04/2020 14:26

I’m still unsure whether the Mother’s Day weekend people will have hit the hospital yet or if this is still the crufts, football and Cheltenham crowd.

namechangemania · 08/04/2020 14:28

Shit

Zofloramummy · 08/04/2020 14:29

If it is likely that the people infected around Mother’s Day are in the hospital figures now then maybe we could hope for a plateau in the next 3 weeks?? Hopefully?

namechangemania · 08/04/2020 14:29

@Zofloramummy where are you seeing the news of these figures?

IamHyouweegobshite · 08/04/2020 14:29

Oh god, that's awful.

Zofloramummy · 08/04/2020 14:31

Sky News

Zofloramummy · 08/04/2020 14:32

828 - England
70 - Scotland
33 - Wales

Total - 931

Madhairday · 08/04/2020 14:33

Oh shit