Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

@Alwayscheerful - The numbers are the days after the first death until the lockdown measure was put in place. The 0* means that the lockdown measure was put in place before the first death.

Source is Politico, here
www.politico.eu/article/europes-coronavirus-lockdown-measures-compared/

@pocketem
Thank you!

I have a friend who works for NHS. Apparently they're working on the basis that the peak time for beds will be towards the end of April. If they're correct, we have a way to go yet.

In this area, NE, they're working on peak time for beds being middle of May.

My BIL who is a London A&E doctor says they are expecting the peak in a week to 10 days. I wonder why it's so different.

I don't understand where this idea is that the peak will be different in different places, as though it is some wave that moves from place to place.

Surely the peak is a function of the lock down date and the number of cases at that time, and a lower amount of cases would mean an earlier peak?

well that's what I assumed too nellodee

Pocket thanks for that. It's a very interesting table. Especially when you look at UK, Spain, Italy and France and the mortalities etc in those countries.

I mentioned up thread about average mortalities because of drop over the weekend. Can't remember what the figure was but it wasn't much different to what we'd had 3 days in a row towards the end of last week.

But reading 900+ is just devastating

I read an article earlier about schools possibly going back after Easter?
Surely not? And if they do start to open they have to have social distancing still and cannot have groups of parents all gathering on a playground? Plus if that's the plan and a possibility why did they jump the gun and cancel all exams that won't start until 3 weeks after that?

My BIL who is a London A&E doctor says they are expecting the peak in a week to 10 days. I wonder why it's so different.

Depends on what peak... Peak number of admissions, peak deaths, peak number of beds in use. All will be different.

It seems there has been some interpretation of a report done on the effects of school closures. It said that if school closures had been the only isolation measure taken that the effect would have been 2-4% reduction in transmission.

Some news outlets are taking this to mean that school closures aren’t making any difference and are writing pieces based on conjecture that they will reopen. Obviously this is not the full picture, and is irresponsible reporting.

The south east of England had the highest number of cases for a long time. Hampshire county had the highest number of cases for nearly 3 weeks. Atm it has one of the highest death tolls. But the number of cases is much lower as its spread up through London and to the midlands.

Sorry iPad went funny so had to post, turn it off and come back!

My point with the above statement was it shows how the leak can be different for different areas. The south east has slowed cases and so the deaths should start reducing soon and those places who've seen a rise in cases since then will then see more deaths within that area at a later date.

The new cases have jumped up too again today after steadily coming down, but then I remembered that there were a few trusts, that didnt submit their test information yesterday so that will likely have some sweeping up from that.

"I don't understand where this idea is that the peak will be different in different places, as though it is some wave that moves from place to place."

Different areas of the country can have different start dates, curve forms, daily death peaks etc because the country does not behave homogeneously

This is far more obvious in the USA, with the diferent states and measures, but also applies within the UK to a lesser extent

e.g. some areas will have had mass public events at certain dates, e.g. Crufts, Cheltenham
some will be more rural, where infection spread is lower and slower
some will have rapid spread due to international links - airpots, ports
different age demographics between e.g. Cornwall and London

The "national trend" is a summation of all the local trends in Uk cities and town and rural areas

And south east had patient zero and so that explains why they had highest number for the first period of time!

I suppose some areas could potentially end up with a peak sooner than others if pre-lockdown measures were slowing things enough there? But agree that the peak itself is largely a function of lockdown.

The whole point of lockdown I s to get the transmission rate below 1, so ideally the peak new infections actually happen right when lockdown is called because they start to drop at that point, and what we see delayed in the graphs is peak diagnoses/ICU admissions/deaths. And that can’t be later than 3-ish weeks after lockdown unless lockdown isn’t working.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Wednesday APRIL 8th

Total UK cases: 60,733
New UK cases: 5,492
Total UK Deaths: 7,097
New UK Deaths: 938

If the peak doesn't correspond to lockdown is what we are seeing actually the natural progression of the virus'? After all, you'd expect a normal distribution curve over time for any new virus'. And how would we know? Association is not causation as any statistician will tell you.

Those numbers are heartbreaking. Just heartbreaking.

Working my way through that Reuters article, which is excellent, but am having to take it in measured doses as the anger periodically overwhelms me.

Is some of this back to deprivation? I believe the South Wales areas are quite deprived.

BBC East News has an item a few days ago about about more people in Harlow (a town with multiple deprivation & poor literacy) ignoring the lockdown compared with other areas. Harlow hospital had also had more deaths. To provide some context it is also an area with poor housing, and higher levels of cardiovascular & respiratory disease in younger age groups.

I have been looking in Worldometer and it looks like Sweden might have plateaued in terms of new confirmed cases already. Without any lockdown. Am I right in this? Or am I misreading?

Does anyone know why the uk number of recovered cases hasn't increased on worldometer?
Is it really that so few are recovering or has the uk stopped releasing that data?

Not reported. Same as "serious" cases which stayed at the same number (20) for over a week. Causing lots of MN Covid deniers to call other people liars.

Why is that? Seems to be a key piece of information, we need more recovered than admitted before relaxing restrictions no?