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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

992 replies

Barracker · 03/04/2020 18:10

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions. Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
56
pocketem · 08/04/2020 10:10

Via Faisal Islam, some figures from Tesco:

In peak week of stockpiling:

•10% of customers bought 20% of volume
•30% bought 60% of volume

•Southern England biggest stockpilers.

In peak week:
•6m packs of beans, well over double the usual amount
•3.3m tins of tomatoes, 115% more than a usual week
•3.6m packs of toilet roll, up 76%
•3.1m packs of liquid soap, up 363%

Delivery slots:
•Normally have around 660,000 slots..
•now up to around 805,000.

Last Friday after Govt gave it list of 110,000 names of people it classed as vulnerable, contacted 75,000 and offered them slots.
•Taken on 45,000 extra staff...
•But 50,000 staff absent...

Despite stepping up our capacity on home shopping “by more than 20%, and will continue to increase this, there is simply not enough capacity to supply the whole market. Between 85% and 90% of all food bought will require a visit to a store”

LWJ70 · 08/04/2020 10:20

Leading on from the link between death rate and vitamin D deficiency caused by geographical latitude location:

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561958

(Key data is a graph of latitude versus deaths per 1000 cases reported.)

Interesting article here from the British Medical Journal (10/3/20).

www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1101/rr-10

''Among the first 15 deaths due to covid-19 in Stockholm, six were reported, by the Swedish-Somali medical society, to be of Somali origin (March 24). Considering that only 0.84% of the Stockholm County population was born in Somalia this is an astonishing high rate...........................
A risk factor that we want to highlight, however, is the low vitamin D ................... the great majority of Swedish women of Somali origin had very low levels .............Somali women required more than twice the amount of vitamin D in order to maintain recommended vitamin D status.''

Of course there are other possible causal factors intertwined here. Similar data is coming from the US.

Another country which does not seem to be following the latitude trends is Ecuador, which is suffering from the pandemic quite badly. It turns out that this country, despite having ample sunlight, has high levels of vitamin D deficiency - up to 70% of the population:

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576417/

peridito · 08/04/2020 10:49

I've not caught up with thread ,delayed by RL and by reading the article BigChoc linked to at midnight last night
www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF

fascinating report ,quoting people and minutes of meetings on UK gov response since January .

thank you so much for posting @BigChocFrenzy

peridito · 08/04/2020 10:56

some extracts from the Rueters article

Two (23 Jan ) days later, China put the city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began, into a complete lockdown. But already, 17 passenger flights had flown directly from Wuhan to Britain since the start of 2020, and 614 flights from the whole of China, according to FlightRadar24, a flight-tracking service. That meant thousands of Chinese, some of them potential carriers, had come to Britain. On April 5, scientific adviser Ferguson said he estimated only one-third of infected people reaching Britain had been detected.

Scientists advising on Covid were the same cohort that had drawn up UK flu pandemic plan

tough measures in the short term would be pointless, as they “would only delay the UK outbreak, not prevent it.”

That limited approach mirrored the UK’s longstanding pandemic flu strategy

“We had in our minds that COVID-19 was a nasty flu and needed to be treated as such,” he said. “The implication was it was a disease that could not be stopped and that it was ultimately not that deadly.”

a copy of the 2011 “UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011,” which a spokesman said was still relevant, stated the “working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness.”

By the end of January, the government’s chief medical adviser, Whitty, was explaining to politicians in private, according to at least two people who spoke to him, that if the virus escaped China, it would in time infect the great majority of people in Britain. It could only be slowed down, not stopped. On Jan 30, the government raised the threat level to “moderate” from “low.”

With Brexit done, Johnson had the chance to focus on other matters the following month, among them the emerging virus threat. But leaving the European Union had a consequence.

Between February 13 and March 30, Britain missed a total of eight conference calls or meetings about the coronavirus between EU heads of state or health ministers - meetings that Britain was still entitled to join. Although Britain did later make an arrangement to attend lower-level meetings of officials, it had missed a deadline to participate in a common purchase scheme for ventilators, to which it was invited. Ventilators, vitally important to treating the direst cases of COVID-19, have fallen into short supply globally. Johnson’s spokesman blamed an administrative error

Nor was there an effective effort to expand the supply of ventilators. The Department of Health told Reuters in a statement that the government started talking to manufacturers of ventilators about procuring extra supplies in February. But it was not until March 16, after it was clear supplies could run out, that Johnson launched an appeal to industry to help ramp up production.

Charles Bellm, managing director of Intersurgical, a global supplier of medical ventilation products based outside London, said he has been contacted by more than a dozen governments around the world, including France, New Zealand and Indonesia. But there had been no contact from the British government. “I find it somewhat surprising, I have spoken to a lot of other governments,” he said

According to emails and more than a dozen scientists interviewed by Reuters, the government issued no requests to labs for assistance with staff or testing equipment until the middle of March, when many abruptly received requests to hand over nucleic acid extraction instruments, used in testing. An executive at the Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine at the University of Oxford said he could have carried out up to 1,000 tests per day from February. But the call never came.

on Friday the 21st Feb, came a death in Italy and a bloom of cases in Lombardy and Veneto regions. Britain has close links to both countries. Thousands of Britons were holidaying in Italy that week.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/04/2020 11:03

Smile Peridito
I was fascinated by this recent history as well

BigChocFrenzy · 08/04/2020 11:04

Food:

Supermarkets have JIT systems for supply
and their business model for deliveries was never designed to be an emergency system for the whole country

  • which is how the country is trying to use them atm

There is too much reliance on private businesses, but their reason for existence is to make profits.
Government needs to have far more comprehensive systems in place which can be ramped up v quickly in an emergency

Food supplies aren't in normal times the responsibility of a government,
but in an emergency, even a few people in one area not being able to get food

  • or ideed having the money to do so - is a possible cause of civil disorder, which may spread
Ereshkigalangcleg · 08/04/2020 11:41

Really interesting, thank you.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/04/2020 12:10

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall (BBC Newsnight)

John^ Hopkins reports 1^,736 new US COVID deaths in 24 hours.

Today US National death toll stands at 12,722.
Until March 1st that number was zero.
Speed of the spread is remarkable,

NettleTea · 08/04/2020 12:16

I find it worrying that they are looking at easing lockdown in some places when the graphs of total cases or deaths do not appear to be levelling out at all

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 08/04/2020 12:18

I’ve just been watching some US News segments. 70% deaths in Chicago and New Orleans are African Americans

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-52194018

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 08/04/2020 12:20

Also, the musician I mentioned on the last thread has now died of COVID19 in Nashville

Thanks for the all the music, John Prine:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=l0EiV423j0M

BigChocFrenzy · 08/04/2020 12:21

The first patients have been admitted to London's Nightingale hospital.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 08/04/2020 12:21

The vitamin D information is fascinating.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 08/04/2020 12:22

Sorry to hear that, Dulang

Horehound · 08/04/2020 12:33

Another 70 Scottish deaths. Nicola sturgeon just said

Horehound · 08/04/2020 12:35

National register Scotland have published weekly report up to Sunday 5th April. Shows 354 deaths have been registered due to covid 19.

Horehound · 08/04/2020 12:35

And she's saying obviously the stats today for the reported deaths are higher than the news figures but that's because of the lag for NRS reporting

UYScuti · 08/04/2020 12:36

I do feel as if it's all getting a bit 'perfect storm' in the USA, high rates of deaths for african-americans seems very alarming.

Rebelwithallthecause · 08/04/2020 12:41

Wuhan is out of lockdown now and the news reports from the area was showing that even they were angry they didn’t get locked down soon enough

Puzzledandpissedoff · 08/04/2020 12:48

70% deaths in Chicago and New Orleans are African Americans

I believe the % of black people in New Orleans is about 60%, so that's not so far out of synch
However it's only about 30% in Chicago, so goodness knows what's happening there

BigChocFrenzy · 08/04/2020 12:54

"The coronavirus can infect anybody but African Americans are dying in disproportionate numbers, especially in certain big cities"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/its-a-racial-justice-issue-black-americans-are-dying-in-greater-numbers-from-covid-19

MarshaBradyo · 08/04/2020 12:57

Is it social situation rather than anything else?

African Americans face a higher risk of exposure to the virus, mostly on account of concentrating in urban areas and working in essential industries. Only 20% of black workers reported being eligible to work from home, compared with about 30% of their white counterparts, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

MarshaBradyo · 08/04/2020 12:58

Ok I just skimmed rest of article a few reasons like that.

pocketem · 08/04/2020 12:58

Higher rates of obesity and diabetes in African American populations too which may skew the death rates

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 08/04/2020 13:07

Some of it will be blue collar v white collar (less likely to be able to work from home) and underlying conditions less well managed due to insurance disparities.

The 70% figure is actually for Louisiana (sorry!) as a whole and it’s less than 35% of Louisiana residents who are African American (although NO is majority AA and the majority of deaths are in NO and I don’t have the brain power to unpack that properly today). It definitely seems to be a tragic ‘perfect storm’ of social disparity and possibly some genetics (the vit B being a potential example).

Looking at all the emerging patterns in the US and U.K., BAME men (especially those with a higher BMI and over the age of 70) need to take this virus really seriously. Well, we all do, but you know what I mean.